OCTOBER 6, 2017, 7:55 AM
Tropical Storm Nate roared toward Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula Friday after drenching Central America in rain that was blamed for at least 22 deaths, and forecasters said it could reach the U.S. Gulf Coast as a hurricane over the weekend.
Louisiana officials declared a state of emergency and ordered some people to evacuate coastal areas and barrier islands ahead of its expected landfall early Sunday, and evacuations began at some offshore oil platforms in the Gulf.
The National Hurricane Center in Miami said Nate could cause dangerous flooding by dumping as much as 6 to 10 inches of rain as it moved over Honduras, with higher accumulations in a few places.
It had maximum sustained winds of 45 mph by Friday morning and was likely to strengthen over the northwestern Caribbean Sea on Friday before a possible strike on the Cancun region at the tip of Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula at near-hurricane strength. It could hit the U.S. Gulf coast near New Orleans.
Costa Rica's Judicial Investigation Organism blamed seven deaths in that country on the storm and said 15 people were missing. Flooding drove 5,000 residents into emergency shelters.
The forecast track showed that Nate could brush across the tip of Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula as a tropical storm late Friday night.
In the U.S., evacuations were ordered Thursday for parts of Louisiana, including St. Bernard Parish east of New Orleans.
A hurricane watch is in effect for metropolitan New Orleans and Lake Pontchartrain and along the Louisiana coast eastward to the Mississippi and Alabama border.
In New Orleans, officials were outlining how they intend to fortify that city’s pump and drainage system after flash floods this summer exposed weaknesses in the system.
In Florida, the western Panhandle was facing a potential threat as it sat just outside the eastern edge of Nate’s 3-day forecast cone but inside the edge of the 5-day cone.
A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued from the Mississippi/Alabama border eastward to the Okaloosa-Walton County Line.
A direct impact to South Florida is not expected but the area will likely see some more rain this weekend as Nate churns up through the Gulf.
“Nate will pass well to the west of South Florida, so that means a continued deep flow of moisture from the south and a good chance of showers and thunderstorms during the weekend,” said Dennis Feltgen, spokesperson for the National Hurricane Center.
The storm’s maximum sustained wind speeds stayed at 40 mph for much of the day Thursday but those winds increased to 45 mph by Friday morning.
Nate is the busy 2017 Atlantic hurricane season’s latest named storm, having originated from Tropical Depression 16 — which developed Wednesday in the southwestern Caribbean Sea.
In the past 24 hours, Nate’s projected path has changed, with the track shifting west and farther away from Florida.
Initially, the official forecast track from the National Hurricane Center on Wednesday had the storm’s core headed straight for Florida’s northern Gulf Coast near Panama City Beach.
That changed overnight. The storm’s center as of Thursday was headed toward the general vicinity of the mouth of the Mississippi River at the southeastern tip of Louisiana.
U.S. Gulf Coast population centers within the cone as of Thursday included Baton Rouge and New Orleans in Louisiana; Gulfport, Biloxi and Pascagoula in Mississippi; and Mobile, Alabama.
But forecasters say that the cone doesn’t tell the whole story.
“The center of the storm can be anywhere inside the track forecast uncertainty cone,” Feltgen said. “And remember, this cone has nothing to do with the impacts, which will be over a much wider area.”
In Nicaragua, Nate's arrival followed two weeks of near-constant rain that had left the ground saturated and rivers swollen, the Associated Press reported. Authorities placed the whole country on alert and warned of flooding and landslides.
Nicaragua's vice president and spokeswoman, Rosario Murillo, said that at least 15 people had died in that country due to the storm. She didn't give details on all the deaths, but said two women and a man who worked for the Health Ministry were swept away by a flooded canal in the central municipality of Juigalpa.
The government closed schools nationwide.
Costa Rica's President Luis Guillermo Solis blamed two deaths in that country on the storm. Flooding drove 5,000 residents into emergency shelters.
As of the 11 p.m. Thursday update from the National Hurricane Center, Nate’s core was about to move offshore on the eastern coast of Honduras Thursday evening . Nate was expected to travel over the Caribbean Sea Thursday night and Friday.
“Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph with higher gusts,” the hurricane center said in its 8 p.m. advisory. “Strengthening is likely once the center moves over the northwestern Caribbean Sea tonight and Friday, and Nate could be near hurricane strength as the center approaches the Yucatan Peninsula.”
Life-threatening mudslides and flash floods due to torrential rain were possible in the impact zones and heavy rain was also likely far out from the storm’s core. Impacts were also expected in Panama, Belize, El Salvador, the Cayman Islands, and Jamaica.
Nate is the busy 2017 Atlantic hurricane season’s latest named storm, having originated from Tropical Depression 16 — which developed Wednesday in the southwestern Caribbean Sea.
Forecasters say conditions in the Gulf are favorable to the strengthening of tropical storms and hurricanes, with warm temperatures and little opposing winds — referred to by forecasters as wind shear.
Meanwhile, the hurricane center was also issuing updates on the rain and windy conditions that have been affecting South Florida this week. The weather we’ve seen in South Florida over the past few days comes as a result of a non-tropical cluster of storms and clouds centered in the Florida Straits between the Florida Keys and Cuba.