ZAGREB, Croatia (AP) — One month after the body of 3-year-old Aylan Kurdi washed up on a Turkish beach — and a week after the European Union agreed to secure its borders — the migrant crisis has largely fallen off the front pages and reporters are going home.

But the human tide keeps rolling northward and westward, and aid agencies are preparing for it to continue through the winter, when temperatures along the migrant trail will drop below freezing. They fear the crisis may get worse.

"One thing is clear, the movement is not going to die down," said Babar Baloch, the U.N. refugee agency's representative in the Balkans. "What we are seeing right now ... it's just the tip of the iceberg."

While over a half million people have crossed the Mediterranean to Europe this year, more than double the figure for all of 2014, that is only a fraction of the people who are on the move. Some 4 million have fled Syria after more than four years of civil war, and 8 million have been displaced inside the country. And it's not just Syrians. It's Iraqis and Iranians, Afghans and Eritreans.

The EU acknowledged the scale of the problem last week, even after it approved a plan to toughen border controls and provide at least 1 billion euros ($1.1 billion) to help Turkey, Lebanon and Jordan care for refugees living in their countries. The first new border measures won't take effect until November, and a proposal for strengthening the EU border agency is due in December.

"Recently I visited refugee camps in Turkey and Jordan and I heard only one message — we are determined to get to Europe," European Council President Donald Tusk said after the agreement was announced. "It is clear that the greatest tide of refugees and migrants is yet to come."

While the UN High Commissioner for Refugees on Friday reported a "noticeable drop" in migrants entering Greece by sea — as weather conditions deteriorated this week — agency spokesman Adrian Edwards said "any improvement in the weather is likely to bring another surge in arrivals."

About 1,500 people arrived in Greece on Thursday, down from 5,000 a day in recent weeks, UNHCR said.

The EU was spurred to act after photos of Aylan lying face down on a Turkish beach were published around the world, triggering outrage over the suffering of migrants fleeing war and poverty. Aylan drowned, along with his mother and brother, when their boat capsized on the journey from Turkey to the Greek island of Kos.

Before the EU can stop the influx, it must convince the world that it has regained control of its borders after months of news coverage showing the virtually unimpeded flow of people traveling from Turkey to Greece, then north through the Balkans to Austria, Germany and Sweden.

The surge came as donors cut back on funding for groups supporting Syrian refugees. The World Food Program in August said funding shortfalls forced it to cut food aid by 50 percent for 1.5 million refugees living in Jordan, Lebanon, Turkey, Iraq and Egypt. EU members pledged to restore funding for the WFP as part of their agreement last week.

The aid is important. Most refugees are unable to build new lives in their Middle Eastern host countries because they are barred from working. And as they watch their resources vanish, even people who hadn't planned to go to Europe are now considering it.

"There's no hope at all, so moving on seems the only option," Baloch said. "It could be an exodus in the making."

Take, for example, Zafer, a Syrian refugee who spoke on condition that his last name not be used for fear of reprisals. Zafer, 43, fled his country three years ago for Istanbul and is now contemplating Europe, encouraged by a friend who made the illegal crossing to Greece and is now in Germany.

"I don't have a future here, it is very hard. I had a budget but it is running out," he told The Associated Press. "I am worried about my children's education. Now they are young, but what will happen later when they are older? I am worried."

He isn't alone.

With a migrant path clearly established, complete with signposts on how to get to Europe, aid groups say it's almost as if a message has gone out: This is your chance. Now or never.

"In normal conditions, you will think twice about crossing the Mediterranean with your children because it is dangerous," said Gianluca Rocco, western Balkans coordinator for the International Organization for Migration. "But now you go with the flow. The flow is there and it is moving very quickly."

Macedonia, the main corridor for people traveling north from Greece, is preparing for the flood to continue through the winter.

Authorities are installing floors and heating in tents at the Gevgelija refugee camp, and aid agencies will provide warm clothes and blankets for the migrants, said Aleksandra Kraus, a spokeswoman for the UNHCR in Macedonia.

The Macedonian parliament in September extended the state of emergency on the country's borders until June 2016. The country of 2 million people is spending about 1 million euros a month on migrants.

"Conditions and capacities for migrants depend on the budget," said Ivo Kotevski, a police spokesman. "We appeal for assistance."

All over the region, groups are already struggling to keep pace with arrivals, especially with winter drawing close.

"It will get much colder still, and the provision of adequate shelter is not even close to matching the number of people crossing into Serbia every day," Doctors Without Borders President Meinie Nicolai told The Associated Press.

It's unclear whether the EU actions will stem the flow, particularly in the short term.

Social media savvy asylum seekers are now aware the new border measures may take effect in November; and that effectively gives potential migrants a deadline that could spur them to make a dash for Europe, making the events of recent weeks a mere prelude to an even larger flood of humanity.

The EU is moving in the right direction, but the new programs will take time to implement, and the conditions that have pushed the refugees toward Europe haven't changed, said Maurizio Albahari, author of "Crimes of Peace: Mediterranean Migrations at the World's Deadliest Border," and a social anthropologist at the University of Notre Dame.

"People in Turkey and in Libya are on top of the news. This includes both smugglers and refugees," he said by email. "The winter months and the promise/threat of additional border control/patrols at the EU's external borders might motivate them to move earlier than they would."

___

Associated Press Writers Suzan Fraser in Ankara, Turkey, Sarah El-Deeb in Beirut, Lebanon, and Konstantin Testorides in Skopje, Macedonia, contributed to this story.

Now I Get It: Migrant crisis (video)

Britain's Prime Minister David Cameron prepares to greet President Nicos Anastasiades of Cyprus at Number 10 Downing Street in London, Britain September 18, 2015. REUTERS/Peter Nicholls

By William James

MANCHESTER, England (Reuters) - British Prime Minister David Cameron said on Sunday that Kremlin chief Vladimir Putin's decision to take military action in Syria to support Syrian President Bashar al-Assad was a "terrible mistake".

Russia has begun striking targets in Syria - a dramatic escalation of foreign involvement in the civil war which has been criticised by some as an attempt to prop up Assad, rather than its purported aim of attacking Islamic State militants.

"They are backing the butcher Assad, which is a terrible mistake for them and for the world," Cameron told the BBC on the first day of his Conservative Party's annual conference in the northern English city of Manchester.

"It's going to make the region more unstable, it will lead to further radicalisation and increased terrorism. I would say to them 'change direction, join us in attacking ISIL'."

Russia says it is targeting hardline Islamic State militants, but Cameron questioned that position.

"Most of the Russian air strikes, as far as we've been able to see so far, have been in parts of Syria not controlled by ISIL (Islamic State), but controlled by other opponents of the regime," he said.

Cameron is keen for Britain to begin its own air strikes in Syria, joining allies in a U.S.-led coalition against Islamic State, a self-declared caliphate spanning large areas of Syria and neighbouring Iraq. British bombing as part of the coalition so far has only targeted Islamic State in Iraq.

He signalled that he would push ahead with plans for a vote in parliament to approve military action against Islamic State in Syria, the Daily Telegraph newspaper said in its Sunday edition.

Cameron was quoted as saying that British military attacks in Syria "may well become possible". Previously, Cameron has said he sees a strong case for extending British air strikes to Syria from Iraq.

After losing a parliamentary vote on the use of force against Assad in Syria in 2013, Cameron has said he would want the support of opposing lawmakers before putting the matter to a vote. The opposition Labour Party, which last month elected anti-war campaigner Jeremy Corbyn as leader, is split on the issue.

Foreign minister Philip Hammond also warned of the dangers of the Russian intervention, saying in his address to party activists that Russia could not fight Islamic State militants in Syria and support Assad at the same time.

"Russian support for him will drive the opposition in Syria into the arms of ISIL, strengthening the evil that Putin says he wants to defeat," he said.

However, speaking in the earlier Telegraph newspaper interview, Cameron said he did not believe Russian military involvement in Syria should prevent Britain's attempt to strike at Islamic State.

"What I am clear about is one of the biggest threats we have to respond to is that terrorist threat," he was quoted as saying.

In a move that is likely to please many in his party, he said he would "beef up" Britain's elite Special Air Service regiment (SAS) and buy 20 new drones – known as Protectors - as part of the battle with the militants.

After telling parliament last month that Britain had killed two of its own nationals who had been fighting for Islamic State in Syria, Cameron said British militants in Syria would be targeted by drones as a "last resort".

(Editing by Guy Faulconbridge and Raissa Kasolowsky)

Damascus (AFP) - Syrian President Bashar al-Assad warned the success of Russia's military intervention in his war-torn country was vital for the entire Middle East, as Moscow ramped up its bombing campaign Sunday.

Russian raids against what Moscow says are Islamic State group targets took place for a fifth day despite accusations in the West that the strikes are mainly targeting moderate opponents of the regime.

"The alliance between Russia, Syria, Iraq and Iran must succeed or else the whole region will be destroyed," Assad said in an interview broadcast by Iranian state television.

"The chances of success for this coalition are great and not insignificant," he added.

Russia said it had dropped concrete-buster munitions on new IS targets and destroyed command posts, storehouses and other infrastructure.

"From the airbase of Hmeimim, the Russian aviation group is continuing to ramp up air strikes using high-precision missiles against the ISIS facilities in Syria," said the defence ministry, referring to IS.

Washington accuses Russia of seeking to buttress Assad and of targeting Western-backed moderate opposition and IS fighters alike.

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A grab on October 3, 2015 from footage on the Russian Defence Ministry's website purporting to s …

US Defence Secretary Ashton Carter arrived in Madrid Sunday on the first leg of a European tour and will meet officials from Spain, Italy and Britain as well as NATO amid Western alarm over Russia's foray into Syria.

President Barack Obama called Russia's dramatic intervention a "recipe for disaster", but pledged Washington would not be drawn into a proxy war.

British Prime Minister David Cameron urged Russian President Vladimir Putin on Sunday to "change direction" in Syria and recognise that Assad must be replaced.

"Tragically, what has happened is that most of the Russian air strikes... have been in parts of Syria not controlled by ISIL (IS) but by other opponents of the regime," Cameron told the BBC.

- 'What's the difference?' -

Putin's spokesman challenged the West's distinction between jihadist and other Islamist rebel groups.

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A grab taken from a video released by the Homs Media Center on September 30, 2015 shows smoke billow …

Putin, who met the leaders of France and Germany in Paris on Friday, had "asked what the difference between the moderate opposition and the immoderate opposition is", Dmitry Peskov said on television late Saturday.

Moscow is keen to turn the tables on the United States, suggesting it is Washington and its allies that often hit the wrong targets.

"When the conversation has turned to this, our president remembered," Peskov said of the Paris talks.

"He also remembered the wedding in Yemen and so on," Peskov added, referring to an alleged air strike that killed more than 130 people and for which a Saudi-led anti-rebel coalition denied responsibility.

An apparent US air strike on an Afghan hospital that killed 19 people on Saturday is also expected to play into the Kremlin's hands.

Assad on Sunday poured scorn on Western-led efforts to take on IS, which has managed to make some gains in Syria even though it has been bombed for more than a year by US-led coalition jets.

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Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan told a political rally in Strasbourg, eastern France, on Octo …

"I haven't seen results. I even see results that are contrary (to the coalition's aim). Terrorism has seen a geographic expansion and the number of recruits to terrorist groups has increased," he said.

- 'Grave mistake' -

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, one of Assad's fiercest critics, reiterated his call for Moscow to change its strategy.

"The steps Russia is taking and the bombing campaign in Syria is unacceptable in any way for Turkey," Erdogan said.

"Unfortunately, Russia is making a grave mistake."

German Chancellor Angela Merkel said that while "military efforts" were needed in Syria, they would not be enough to end the bloodshed.

"We need a political process, which has had difficulties getting under way," she said on radio.

Putin has said Moscow needs to hunt down IS militants before they cross into Russia, which has a large Muslim population.

Moscow said on Sunday that over the past 24 hours its jets had made 20 sorties against 10 IS targets.

But the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, a British-based monitoring group, said that "warplanes, believed to be Russian, carried out many strikes against two villages in the north of Homs province".

One person was killed and others wounded, it said. Another six civilians were killed in apparent Russian strikes in Idlib, the Observatory said on Saturday.

Russia denies its strikes have led to civilian casualties and has instead hailed the results of the first three days of bombing, referring to "panic" among militants.

Raids ordered by Moscow are reported to have hit areas controlled by moderate groups and prompted a claim by US Senator John McCain that Russian jets had killed rebels trained and funded by the CIA.