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Luis Miguel Goitizolo

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RE: ARE WE NOW IN THE END TIMES?
9/23/2015 12:04:15 AM

'Muslims are fleeing in droves': ISIS suddenly has a caliphate problem

Business Insider

(REUTERS/Stringer)
A militant Islamist fighter filming his fellow fighters taking part in a military parade along the streets of Syria's northern Raqqa province in 2014.

The Islamic State militant group has recently released a barrage of propaganda videos targeting refugees and telling them to come join the "caliphate" instead of fleeing to "xenophobic" Europe.

The videos seek to reinforce the image of the caliphate — the territory ISIS controls in Iraq and Syria — as an Islamic utopia and capitalize on the dangers refugees face as they flee to European countries.

And these videos aren't the first propaganda messages ISIS has released about the refugee crisis — earlier this month, in its English-language magazine Dabiq, the extremist group published an article warning against leaving the caliphate for Western countries.

The articles said leaving for Western nations was "a dangerous major sin" that was "a gate towards one's children and grandchildren abandoning Islam for Christianity, atheism, or liberalism."

This propaganda effort could be a sign of panic in the ranks of ISIS leadership as Iraqis and Syrians flee their home countries in large numbers.

"They claim to create this Islamic utopia, and Muslims are fleeing in droves," Daveed Gartenstein-Ross, a counterterrorism analyst at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, told Business Insider.

"A legitimate caliphate … is supposed to be able to provide services to its citizens."

ISIS relies on residents in the territory it controls for revenue — it makes most of its money from taxation — and for services that give ISIS-held territories the appearance of being ruled by a functioning government.

"Taxation certainly would [be] an issue with people fleeing," Gartenstein-Ross said. "Another significant problem is brain drain … The people who have highly desirable skill sets like doctors are fleeing."

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ISIS oil map
(Twitter/@Karybdamoid)
A map from August showing oil wells under ISIS control.

Oil is another major source of funding for ISIS, which brought in an estimated $100 million in 2014 from selling crude on the black market.

"The oil industry ... is another area where they haven't preserved the level of talent that they need," Gartenstein-Ross added.

Aside from a possible brain drain and loss of revenue if there are fewer people to tax as ISIS continues its attempt to seize territory across Iraq and Syria, the refugee exodus from the Middle East could call ISIS' legitimacy into question, Gartenstein-Ross said.

And ISIS has a strategy to keep people from leaving the caliphate. The International Institute for Strategic Studies reported recently: "It is in ISIS's interest to prevent a mass exodus by residents living in territory it controls, because this would undermine its image of a cohesive state-building project. The group has accordingly placed IEDs around entrances to cities it controls, such as Fallujah and Ramadi, to prevent escape, which simultaneously serve the larger purpose of preventing the [Iraqi Security Forces] from advancing."

The strategic security firm The Soufan Group noted last week that "more people are visibly fleeing [ISIS] and the areas it controls than are flocking to join it."

"In an attempt to change the minds of people who would rather risk drowning than live in the Islamic State, the group has ramped up its propaganda efforts," The Soufan Group said. "The scatter-shot nature of the Islamic State's recent messages — at times angry and denouncing refugees, at other times proclaiming the wisdom of staying in what the group sees as an Earthly paradise — shows the desperation of a group that resembles a pyramid scheme more than a government."

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ISIS Islamic State Raqqa Syria
(REUTERS/Stringer)
An ISIS militant next to residents who are holding pieces of wreckage from a Syrian warplane that crashed in Raqqa, in northeast Syria, in 2014.

Some experts, however, disagree with the characterization of ISIS' media blitz as a sign of desperation or panic.

"I wouldn’t see it as a desperate call for the refugees … because they need people [in their caliphate] but more as a sophisticated move by the Islamic State to take advantage of the huge debate on the refugee movement in Europe," Pieter Nanninga, an assistant professor of Middle Eastern Studies at the University of Groningen in the Netherlands, told Business Insider.

His research focuses on jihadist violence and media use, and he viewed the new videos ISIS posted about the refugee crisis.

J.M. Berger, a Brookings Institution fellow and coauthor of the recent book "ISIS: The State of Terror,"echoed this view.

"I think there are some signs on social media that ISIS is concerned with the refugee flows, but it's possible the leadership's interest is opportunistic," he told Business Insider via email. "The rising xenophobia on display at the moment plays very well into their narrative."

Nanninga sees the Arabic-language videos as a deliberate media campaign seeking to get ISIS supporters and sympathizers to promote ISIS' message of utopia in the caliphate.

"The refugees themselves … I doubt whether they see these videos, I think they will be seen by the supporters of the Islamic State who share these videos on Twitter," Nanninga said.

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refugees hungary
(Laszlo Balogh/Reuters)
Hungarian police officers detaining migrants on the tracks at the railway station in the town of Bicske, Hungary, on September 3.

The videos use footage of a Hungarian camerawoman who kicked a refugee and images of riots on the Hungarian border to show the dangers of traveling to Europe. These images are juxtaposed with footage of food markets and children happily playing in the caliphate.

Nanninga also said the volume of media ISIS had released on the refugee crisis hinted that the propaganda was a calculated, sophisticated move to capitalize on the debate surrounding the refugee movement in Europe.

"It’s remarkable that ISIS has launched 10 videos in a bit more than one day — it's quite unusual," he said. "The message is quite coherent, so it's really an orchestrated campaign from different regions in the caliphate."

Also of note is the fact that most of the refugees streaming into Europe are thought to be fleeing the regime of Syrian President Bashar Assad, who has used barrel bombs on civilian areas, rather than ISIS specifically.

A human-smuggler in Istanbul told BuzzFeed that Assad's war was "about the only reason for the refugees," guessing that about 90% of the Syrian refugees he smuggled into Europe were fleeing Assad.

But this may not negate the idea that ISIS could be worried about the caliphate losing its appeal among Syrians and Iraqis.

"If you look at the areas that we consider Assad-controlled territories, a lot of them are actually where the bulk of the fighting is occurring," Gartenstein-Ross said. "If so, the thing they're fleeing most is war.

"It's the areas that are most disputed where the refugees are coming from … It's the same patterns you see in any war that has ever occurred. There are still massive amounts of refugees from territory ISIS has taken control of."

"Choose a job you love and you will not have to work a day in your life" (Confucius)

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Luis Miguel Goitizolo

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RE: ARE WE NOW IN THE END TIMES?
9/23/2015 11:02:46 AM

U.S. To Station Nuclear Weapons In Germany Against Russia [REPORT]


Posted date:

With plans to go to war with Russia, the U.S. will station new atomic weapons and 20 new nuclear bombs in Germany, according to Tuesday reports from Germany’s ZDF public television network.

Russia Nuclear Weapons Iskander missile launcher

Each of the 20 new American nuclear bombs are four times the destructive power of the one that was used on Hiroshima in 1945, according to the article.

“With the new bombs the boundaries blur between tactical and strategic nuclear weapons,” Hans Kristensen, the Director of the Nuclear Information Project at the Federation of American Scientists, told ZDF.

In June, Russian Foreign Ministry warned the U.S. against stationing its nuclear weapons in Europe to avoid “dangerous consequences.”

These “new attack options against Russia” present “a conscious provocation of our Russian neighbors,” according to Willy Wimmer, a former Parliamentary State Secretary in Defense Ministry of German’s Chancellor Angela Merkel’s own conservative party.

Back in March 2010, the Bundestag ruled by a large majority, expressing the will of most Germans, that the government should press for the withdrawal of U.S. nuclear weapons from Germany.

“But instead there will be these new bombs,” according to German Economic News, referring to 20 new nuclear bombs to be stationed in Germany.

The news have already sparked a great deal of outrage in Russia, with a spokeswoman of Russian Foreign Minister, Maria Zakharova, saying that “This is an infringement of Articles 1 and 2 of the Treaty on Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons.”

The treaty Zakharova is referring to is something Russia has repeatedly been accused of violating. It’s the treaty that guarantees non-nuclear states that nuclear powers will not take advantage of their nuclear status to take over the world.

Putin: We will aim our forces at territories where threat comes

Russian President Vladimir Putin responded to NATO’s expansion in Eastern Europe by saying flat out that Russia “will be forced to aim our armed forces … at those territories from where the threat comes.”

“It is NATO that is moving towards our border and we aren’t moving anywhere,” Putin then added, speaking to journalists in June.

How does Washington explain the policy to get closer to Russian borders with its weapons, hardware, military bases and nuclear bombs?

Over recent months, there have been numerous reports by leading U.S. media outlets – often citing U.S. military sources and officials of the U.S. administration – that the U.S. is getting closer to Russian borders only because it’s worried Russia might violate the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty (INF) signed in 1987.

However, many of such sources cannot certainly say whether there have been indications of Russia violating the INF treaty, so the U.S. implements ways to put pressure on Moscow and convince it in complying with the treaty.

Washington has repeatedly expressed its concerns over Russia’s P-500 missiles for Iskander-M, which have the range of 500 km (300 miles), while the treaty bans missiles with intermediate ranges between 500 - 5,500 km (300 - 3,400 miles).

However, it must be noted that the U.S. itself has been developing target-missiles for testing of anti-ballistic missile systems since the 1990s. Basically, such target-missiles are intermediate-range missiles without the warheads.

The U.S. has also been stationing in Europe its Standard SM-3 launching systems, which are capable of launching Tomahawk cruise missiles.

Russian FM warned the U.S. of “dangerous consequences”

In June, Russian Foreign Ministry warned the U.S. that deployment of new military weaponry anywhere near Russian borders would “entail dangerous consequences,” with some experts interpreting it as a ‘threat’.

“The United States is inciting tensions and carefully nurturing their European allies' anti-Russian phobias in order to use the current difficult situation for further expanding its military presence and influence in Europe,” the Russian Foreign Ministry stated on its official website.

“We hope that reason will prevail and it will be possible to save the situation in Europe from sliding toward a military standoff which could entail dangerous consequences,” the Russian Foreign Ministry warned.

Russia’s nuclear arsenal currently includes military stockpile of nearly 4,500 nuclear warheads with about 1,800 strategic warheads deployed on missiles and at bomber bases. Another 700 strategic warheads are in reserves with roughly 2,700 non-strategic warheads. On top of that, about 3,500 of retired warheads await dismantlement.

Only Russia can destroy the U.S.

Earlier this year, the U.K. supported U.S. foreign policy aimed against Russia.

The Foreign Secretary Philip Hammond said Britain could once again host U.S. nuclear missiles on its territory amidescalating tensions with Russia.

Hammond said the government ‘would look at the case’ for cruise missiles to be stationed in the U.K. and added that the West needed to send ‘clear signals’ to Putin amid ‘worrying signs’ of increased military activity by Russian forces.

In June, Putin denounced U.S. “scaremongering,” saying that the U.S. is a global empire of military bases, and adding that Russia has “virtually no bases abroad.”

The ones owned by Russia are outdated Soviet-era relics. “I think that only an insane person and only in a dream can imagine that Russia would suddenly attack NATO,” Putin told journalists.

ValueWalk reported earlier this month that Russia is the only country in the world capable of destroying the U.S., according to U.S. Ambassador Linton Brooks.

Russia’s actions in Syria earlier this month have significantly escalated tensions between the Kremlin and Washington. It must be noted that even before Russia’s threatening actions in Syria in September, the relations between the U.S. and Russia had already been at its worst since the end of the Cold War.

This month, Russia has been boosting its military presence in Syria, supporting the regime of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, while the U.S. wants his government removed from power.

"Choose a job you love and you will not have to work a day in your life" (Confucius)

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Luis Miguel Goitizolo

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RE: ARE WE NOW IN THE END TIMES?
9/23/2015 11:14:47 AM

Sunday's 'Supermoon' Total Lunar Eclipse: When and Where to See It

SPACE.com

Robert Vanderbei captured this montage of the total lunar eclipse of Dec. 21, 2010.


On the evening of Sept. 27, the moon will once again become immersed in the Earth's shadow, resulting in a total lunar eclipse — the fourth such event in the last 17 months,

As with all lunar eclipses, the region of visibility for Sunday's blood-moon lunar eclipse will encompass more than half of our planet. Nearly 1 billion people in the Western Hemisphere, nearly 1.5 billion throughout much of Europe and Africa and perhaps another 500 million in western Asia will be able to watch as the Harvest Full Moon becomes a shadow of its former self and morphs into a glowing coppery ball.

The lunar eclipse will also feature the "biggest" full moon (in apparent size) of 2015, since the moon will also be at perigee on the very same day ? its closest point to the Earth ? 221,753 miles (356,877 km) away. [Supermoon Lunar Eclipse: Complete Blood Moon Coverage]

The Sept. 27 event is therefore being called a "supermoon eclipse." The last such eclipse happened in 1982, and the next won't occur until 2033.

Visibility zone

Almost everyone in the Americas and Western Europe will have a beautiful view of this eclipse. The moon will be high in a dark evening sky as viewed from most of the United States and Canada while most people are still awake.

The only problematic area will be in the Western United States and West-Central Canada, where the first partial stage of the eclipse will already be underway when the moonrises and the sun sets on that final Sunday in September. But if you have an open view low to the east, even this situation will only add to the drama, for as twilight fades, these far-Westerners will see the shadow-bitten moon coming into stark view low above the landscape. And by late twilight, observers will have a fine view of the totally eclipsed lunar disk glowing red and dim low in the eastern sky.

The reason the moon can be seen at all when totally eclipsed is that sunlight is scattered and refracted around the edge of the Earth by the planet's atmosphere. To an astronaut standing on the moon during totality, the sun would be hidden behind a dark Earth outlined by a brilliant red ring of all of the world's sunrises and sunsets. [?How Lunar Eclipses Work (Infographic)]

Alaskans will also see the moon rise during the eclipse; much of eastern Alaska will see the moon rise while immersed in the Earth's shadow. For Hawaiians, moonrise unfortunately comes after the end of totality, with the moon gradually ascending in the skyand its gradual emergence from the shadow readily visible. Western Europe and Africa also will get a good view of the eclipse, but at a less convenient time: before dawn on Monday morning (Sept. 28).

Eclipse schedule

The eclipse will actually begin when the moon enters the faint outer portion, or penumbra, of the Earth's shadow. The penumbra, however, is all but invisible to the eye until the moon becomes deeply immersed in it. Sharp-eyed viewers may get their first glimpse of the penumbra as a delicate shading on the left part of the moon's disk about 15 minutes before the start of the partial eclipse (when the round edge of the central shadow, or umbra, first touches the moon's left edge). During the partial eclipse, the penumbra should be readily visible as a dusky border to the dark umbral shadow.

The moon will enter Earth’s much darker umbral shadow at 1:07 a.m. on Sept. 28 by Greenwich, or Universal time, which is 9:07 p.m. on Sept. 27 in the Eastern time zone, 8:07 p.m. Central time, 7:07 p.m. Mountain time and 6:07 p.m. Pacific time (before moonrise). Sixty-four minutes later, the moon is entirely within the shadow, and sails on within it for 72 minutes until it begins to find its way out at the lower left (southeastern) edge.

The moon will be free of the umbra by 9:27 p.m. Pacific time or 12:27 a.m. (Sept. 28) Eastern time. The vaguer shading of the inner penumbra can continue to be readily detected for perhaps another 15 minutes or so after the end of umbral eclipse. Thus, the whole experience ends toward 1 a.m. for the East (with the re-brightened moon now sloping down along the arc it describes across the sky) or during the mid-evening hours for the West.

For Europe and Africa, the midpoint of this eclipse occurs roughly between midnight and dawn on Sept. 28, and the moon will therefore still be well placed in the western sky. At the moment of mid-totality (2:48 a.m. GMT), the moon will be directly overhead from a point in the Atlantic Ocean a couple of hundred miles to the north of Belém, Brazil.

Below we present a timetable of the key phases of the eclipse. Times in p.m. are for the calendar date of Sept. 27; those in a.m. are for Sept. 28.

In Europe, most countries currently observe "summer time," in which clocks are either one hour ahead of Greenwich time (London, Lisbon) or two hours ahead (Paris, Rome).

For the Canadian Maritime provinces, clocks run one hour ahead of Eastern time, except in Newfoundland, where it's one and a half hours ahead.

Notable cities in the Eastern time zone include New York, Jacksonville, Florida and Atlanta; in the Central time zone, Chicago, Memphis, Tennessee, and Houston; for Mountain time, Salt Lake City, Denver and Albuquerque, New Mexico, and in the Pacific Time Zone, Seattle, San Francisco and Los Angeles.

In the United States, Daylight Saving Time is not observed in Arizona. Clocks there read similar to Pacific time. For most of Alaska, clocks run one hour behind Pacific time; in Hawaii two hours.

Editor's note: If you capture an amazing view of the supermoon lunar eclipse or any other night sky view that you would like to share with Space.com for a possible story or gallery, send images and comments to managing editor Tariq Malik at spacephotos@space.com.

Joe Rao serves as an instructor and guest lecturer at New York's Hayden Planetarium. He writes about astronomy for Natural History magazine, the Farmer's Almanac and other publications, and he is also an on-camera meteorologist for News 12 Westchester, New York. Follow us @Spacedotcom, Facebook or Google+. Originally published on Space.com.

"Choose a job you love and you will not have to work a day in your life" (Confucius)

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Luis Miguel Goitizolo

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RE: ARE WE NOW IN THE END TIMES?
9/23/2015 11:26:30 AM

Kurdish ministers quit Turkey govt over 'logic of war' against Kurdish rebels

AFP

Turkey's Minister for EU Affairs Ali Haydar Konca (L) and Development Minister Muslum Dogan hold a press conference at HDP headquarters in Ankara on September 22, 2015 (AFP Photo/Adem Altan)


Ankara (AFP) - Two Kurdish ministers accused Turkey's government of promoting a "logic of war" as they quit the cabinet on Tuesday, two months after the resumption of fighting between the army and Kurdish rebels.

EU Affairs Minister Ali Haydar Konca and Development Minister Muslum Dogan said the state's two-month-old offensive against the militant Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) had created a "hellish" situation "especially in the Kurdish cities".

"A logic of war has been put into place," Konca, a member of the pro-Kurdish Peoples' Democracy Party (HDP), told a press conference, describing the climate in the country as worse than during the height of the conflict between the state and the rebels in the 1990s.

"Turkey has been plunged into a bloody vortex in which police, soldiers, guerrillas, women, children and the elderly have lost their lives", Konca said, accusing President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and his ruling party of preparing for war "on a larger scale."

NTV channel reported that the pair -- who have been vocal critics of the AKP -- walked out over a debate on terrorism during a cabinet meeting.

A statement from Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoglu's office said he had accepted the resignations and that neither would be immediately replaced, NTV reported.

Deputy Prime Minister Numan Kurtulmus condemned the departing ministers' criticism of the government and president as "unacceptable."

The resignations deal a further setback to the peace process between the state and PKK, which broke down in July after President Recep Tayyip Erdogan launched an "anti-terrorism" campaign against the militants, shattering a two-year ceasefire.

Erdogan has repeatedly accused the HDP of being a front for the PKK, which is blamed for a string of bomb and shooting attacks that have killed dozens of soldiers and police in the majority Kurdish southeast in recent weeks.

The HDP insists it is has no formal links to the PKK but it is generally seen as defending Kurdish interests.

Konca and Dogan were brought into government after an inconclusive election in June, which led to the formation of a caretaker cabinet tasked with running the country until fresh elections on November 1.

The June vote dealt a blow to Erdogan's Islamic-rooted Justice and Development Party (AKP), which failed to win a governing majority for the first time in 13 years, dashing the president's hopes of pushing through constitutional reforms to boost his powers.

- Walking from 'war cabinet' -

The timing of Erdogan's campaign against the PKK, coming hot on the heels of the electoral wallop, has been viewed with suspicion by his critics, who accuse of reigning the conflict for political gain.

The HDP was the biggest winner of the June polls, taking seats from the AKP to win representation in parliament -- and later in government -- for the first time in the history of a pro-Kurdish party.

"The HDP thought taking the ministerial positions would enable them to keep a tight reign on the AKP when it comes to waging war," Dogu Ergil, an expert on Kurdish affairs who lectures at Istanbul's Fatih University, told AFP.

"But when the government didn't stop, they didn't want to be seen by their supporters as being a part of a 'war cabinet'," he added.

At a mass "antiterrorism" rally Sunday, Erdogan vowed to hunt down the PKK "to the terrorists' last redoubt" and suggested voters should punish the HDP at the ballot box for the PKK attacks.

But polls show the AKP still struggling to win back voters.

A survey by Gezici polling company published Monday showed support for the party slipping 1.6 points since June, dropping from 40.9 to 39.3 percent.

The resignation of the Kurdish ministers comes as the army continues airstrikes against PKK bases in southeast Turkey and northern Iraq which pro-government media say has killed over 1,000 rebels.

The military has also carried out ground operations aimed at flushing the PKK out of majority Kurdish cities.

The army's nine-day curfew of the city of Cizre earlier this month caused particular outrage among Kurds. The HDP claimed 23 civilians were killed in the operation. The government said up to 32 rebels died.

Over 40,000 people have been killed since the PKK took up arms in 1984 demanding an independent state for Kurds. Since then the group has narrowed its demands to greater autonomy and cultural rights.

"Choose a job you love and you will not have to work a day in your life" (Confucius)

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Luis Miguel Goitizolo

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RE: ARE WE NOW IN THE END TIMES?
9/23/2015 11:34:03 AM

France ready to bomb Syria 'in self-defense' – foreign minister



A destroyed building in Al-Hasakah in eastern Syria. / RIA Novosti

France says it may carry out airstrikes against Islamic State targets in Syria as an act of self-defense. Last week French aircraft started to undertake reconnaissance missions over Syria.

On Monday, French President Francois Hollande said French military sorties in Syria would soon expand to include airstrikes against Islamic State (IS, formerly ISIS/ISIL).

“We are part of the coalition in Iraq [against ISIS],” Hollande said in a news conference with his Nigerian counterpart Muhammadu Buhari. “We started reconnaissance flights [in Syria] to enable us to consider air strikes if they were necessary and they will be necessary in Syria.”

French Foreign Minister Laurent Fabius said the use of weapons on Syrian territory is justified due to a string of Islamist attacks in Europe.

“We received specific intelligence indicating that the resent terrorist attacks against France and other European nations were organized by Daesh [Arabic derogatory term for IS] in Syria. Due to this threat we decided to start reconnaissance flights to have the option for airstrikes, if that would be necessary. This is self-defense,” the minister told the Belgian media.

Paris previously announced its readiness to bomb targets in Syria in 2013, when the United States threatened military intervention against the government of President Bashar Assad.

Damascus never formally requested the US-led coalition, which was formed in response to IS taking over large parts of Iraq last year, to expand its airstrikes into Syria. This technically makes such attacks illegal under international law.

However, the Syrian government is so far turning a blind eye to the violations of its sovereignty. Damascus is facing a war with IS as well as with other terrorist groups like Al-Nusra Front and US-backed rebel forces, who Washington consider to be moderates.

The US and its allies insist that President Assad should be ousted and has no place in the future of Syria. France now says his departure must not be a condition for political dialogue to start.

“If we require, even before negotiations start, that Assad step down, we won’t get far,” Fabius told Le Figaro.

Russia, which is supporting Syria in its fight against IS jihadists and is providing Damascus with military supplies, has repeatedly called on a broader coalition to fight the terrorist organization.

Europe has endured several attacks by Islamist militants since the turn of the year, including the massacre at the Charlie Hebdo satirical magazine in Paris and a failed to attempt to kill passengers aboard a high speed Thalys train travelling near the French-Belgian border.

"Choose a job you love and you will not have to work a day in your life" (Confucius)

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