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Luis Miguel Goitizolo

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RE: ARE WE NOW IN THE END TIMES?
4/17/2011 12:15:44 AM

Arab revolt disrupts US counter-terror effort

US intelligence agencies can no longer count on spy agencies under authoritarian regimes to help fight Islamist militants.

Middle East Online

By Dan De Luce - WASHINGTON

The political map is changing in the Arab world

Arab unrest is shaking the foundations of US counter-terror efforts that have long relied on spy agencies under authoritarian regimes to help fight Islamist militants.

With popular protests toppling rulers in Tunisia and Egypt and threatening leaders in Yemen and elsewhere, US intelligence agencies are struggling to adjust to a radically changed landscape, US officials, former intelligence officers and experts say.

The United States for years has counted on Arab allies to back up its diplomatic and security interests, enlisting their help to combat Al-Qaeda with harsh tactics and interrogations.

But the political wildfire spreading across the region means US spy services will have to deal with new intelligence chiefs more wary of Washington and more reluctant to cooperate on covert projects that might be unpopular with their citizens.

"The immediate effect, there's no question, is that a lot of relationships which we have built over the years to fight Al-Qaeda and like-minded terrorists are over," said Bruce Riedel, a former CIA officer.

Key figures who became trusted partners for American intelligence services such as Omar Suleiman, Egypt's former spy chief, are now gone and their successors will likely be less willing to do Washington's bidding, said Riedel, a fellow at the Brookings Institution.

US officials are most alarmed at the fallout from upheaval in Yemen, where Al-Qaeda has already exploited a a violent power struggle between President Ali Abdullah Saleh and his opponents.

"The focus of Yemeni intelligence is not on Al-Qaeda anymore, it's on surviving and figuring out who's going to be the next boss," Riedel said.

Anxious to see an end to protracted unrest, President Barack Obama's administration has dropped its support for Saleh, urging him to peacefully hand over power.

Even if some semblance of stability is restored in Yemen, Al-Qaeda will have emerged stronger, raising the threat of another attack on Western targets by the network's affiliate there, Riedel said.

"Their safe-haven, their sanctuary is probably going to be safer and bigger when this is all over than it is now.

"And that means the threat not only to the US but to Europe is going to go up as well," he said.

A US official acknowledged that the turmoil offered "opportunities" for Al-Qaeda's branch in Yemen, which has tried to blow up an airliner and cargo planes bound for US cities.

"Our concerns are particularly acute in Yemen" the US official, who spoke on condition of anonymity, said.

But while unrest had made working with Yemeni intelligence more difficult, the official said cooperation had not "shut down."

The United States also had the means to go after extremists without having to rely other intelligence services, he said.

"Counter-terrorism agencies also have capabilities to act on their own. So no one should think that the United States and our allies are totally dependent on liaison relationships to prosecute the fight against Al-Qaeda and its militant allies," the official said.

The CIA has carried out drone strikes on terror suspects in Yemen and on a much larger scale in Pakistan.

Though political upheaval may have disrupted US counter-terrorism work in the short term, some senior officials -- including Defense Secretary Robert Gates -- say that in the long run genuine democratic change could undercut the appeal of extremist groups that have thrived off of government repression.

The juggernaut of popular revolts in the region has yet to seriously affect Saudi Arabia, arguably America's most important ally on the counter-terrorism front.

But relations are strained amid Saudi anger over the Obama administration's decision to abandon its support of Egypt's Hosni Mubarak, who stepped down in February after mass street protests.

The political earthquake in the Middle East will likely mark the end of an era for US power in the region and curtail the reach of American intelligence agencies, said Michael Desch, co-director of the University of Notre Dame's international security program.

"Part of the reality of the new world that we're moving in to is we've got to recognize the limits of our influence," Desch said.

First Published: 2011-04-10

http://www.middle-east-online.com/english/?id=45443

"Choose a job you love and you will not have to work a day in your life" (Confucius)

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Luis Miguel Goitizolo

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RE: ARE WE NOW IN THE END TIMES?
4/22/2011 10:26:57 AM

Dear Friends,

We are just about one year after the disaster that marked
an epoch with signs the sort and magnitude of which confirm, to me, that
this is the end times. And thanks to Yahoo! News and Reuters, here is a photo show to remind us of such a sad anniversary.


Gulf oil spill one-year anniversary


(Click on the link below for more photos of the disaster)

One year later, disturbing images from the aftermath are a grim testament to the Gulf's tragedy. Impact









"Choose a job you love and you will not have to work a day in your life" (Confucius)

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Luis Miguel Goitizolo

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RE: ARE WE NOW IN THE END TIMES?
4/22/2011 10:48:33 AM

AP IMPACT: 3,200 Gulf wells unplugged, unprotected


Thousands of Gulf wells left unprotected

Abandoned oil and gas wells could pose a threat to the same waters fouled by the BP spill. Little to prevent leaks

By JEFF DONN, AP National Writer Wed Apr 20, 6:17 am ET

More than 3,200 oil and gas wells classified as active lie abandoned beneath the Gulf of Mexico, with no cement plugging to help prevent leaks that could threaten the same waters fouled by last year's BP spill, The Associated Press has learned.

These wells likely pose an even greater environmental threat than the 27,000 wells in the Gulf that have been plugged and classified officially as "permanently abandoned" or "temporarily abandoned." Those sealed wells were first tallied and reported as a major leaking threat in an investigative report by the AP in July.

The unplugged wells haven't been used for at least five years, and there are no plans to restore production on them, according to the federal government. Operators have not been required to plug the wells because their leases have not expired.

As a result, there is little to prevent powerful leaks from pushing to the surface. Even depleted wells can repressurize from work on nearby wells or shifts in oil or gas layers beneath the surface, petroleum engineers say. But no one is watching to make sure that doesn't happen.

The addition of the unused but officially active wells, as documented in a list provided to the AP by federal officials under the U.S. Freedom of Information Act, means at least three-fifths of the 50,000 wells ever drilled in the Gulf have been left behind with no routine monitoring for leaks.

The 27,000 decommissioned wells were drilled mostly on federal leases that have now expired. Government rules for expired leases on the sea floor require operators to plug the wells or make plans to reuse them within a year. In its original report, the AP documented how oil and gas companies regularly flouted the rules regarding temporary abandonment, with some wells "temporarily abandoned" since the 1950s.

Rules for unexpired leases are different, and have allowed operators to simply walk away from idle wells. Some of the roughly 3,200 unsealed wells contained in the latest list were drilled 60 years ago, and most are more than 10 years old.

Federal regulators described idle wells on active leases as a "potential threat" to the environment in a September letter to operators announcing a new program, dubbed "Idle Iron," to plug them within three years. The letter said the program would cover more than 3,000 idle wells but didn't say what kind of wells would be included or whether the wells already contained at least some cement plugging.

The list of specific wells covered by the Idle Iron initiative was provided to the AP by the U.S. Bureau of Ocean Energy Management, Regulation and Enforcement, which regulates oil and gas leases on federal lands on the sea floor.

BOEMRE refused to provide the list when the AP first requested it in September. The agency said at the time that it first wanted to verify with gas and oil companies that the wells were correctly classified. The AP argued that the FOIA provides access to records as they exist at the time of the request, but the agency still refused to release the material.

In finally providing the list last month, BOEMRE said the wells had been "verified." But several weeks later, a representative of the agency, Eileen Angelico, contacted the AP and said it had mistakenly released the original unverified list.

It is that version — a listing of wells as they were classified in September without any challenges from the industry — that the AP has analyzed and used as a basis for this story. Angelico said the verified list wasn't yet ready, despite the earlier assurance that the released list had been checked by operators.

The list cites the American Petroleum Institute number of 3,253 oil or gas wells targeted by the initiative in September. Ninety-nine percent of them, or 3,212, were classified as completed wells. Most were drilled for regular production, but a few were exploratory.

Just 41 of the Idle Iron wells — 1 percent — were already classified in September as "temporarily abandoned."

When wells are drilled, they are lined with metal casing, which is then encased in cement to further shore up the borehole.

Whole segments of wells that are permanently abandoned are plugged with additional lengths of cement — known as plugs — to prevent any oil or gas from pushing its way to the top. Then, the top of the casing is sheared off, and a cap is placed over it.

When wells are temporarily abandoned, fewer cement plugs are placed, so it is easier to drill through the plugs and resume production, if desired.

The typical well in the Iron Idle program is finished only with a wellhead, which is the top of the metal lining, and perhaps a device called a tree, a faucet-like rig equipped with valves to open and shut the flow of hydrocarbons during production.

Federal regulators have acknowledged that even some plugged wells have leaked in the past. And, as the AP disclosed last summer, there is no routine monitoring of abandoned wells — plugged or unplugged.

The oil and gas industry generally views plugging on unexpired leases as an inconvenience and prefers the freedom to resume operations at any time on such wells.

When BP's Deepwater Horizon well blew in the Gulf last April 20, it was being temporarily abandoned to await later production. A poor cement plugging job has been identified as a chief cause of the deadly explosion and spill.

Engineers say the metal and cement lining inside abandoned wells, as well as the plugs, can break down over time and allow leaking. Petroleum or corrosive brine, which is even saltier than sea water, can leak from under the sea floor, harming aquatic life.

The most dramatic threat from the Idle Iron wells is a gusher akin to the BP spill, though probably on a smaller scale, specialists say.

Roger N. Anderson, an energy geophysicist at Columbia University, said he worries about a catastrophic failure of the cement lining in the unplugged wells. "The one thing we don't know very much about is how the cement will age. Highways only last so long, and the cement starts to degrade," he said.

Another danger is that many of the unused Idle Iron wells may be slowly leaking, hurting sea creatures that have adapted to the natural petroleum seepage from the sea floor, but not to higher amounts. "Elevated chronic leaks from thousands of sources spread widely across the Gulf can have much more impact than single spills," said Doug Rader, an ecologist for the Environmental Defense Fund.

A third danger is that hurricanes or other storms will wreck underwater structures and make them leak.

David Pettit, senior attorney for the Natural Resources Defense Council, said the lack of oversight of unused wells makes him nervous.

"I have no idea how badly they may be leaking," he said, adding that federal regulators should start with checking some of the oldest wells.

Under the Idle Iron program, operators can choose to seal the wells with a complete series of plugs and sheared-off well lining for permanent abandonment, or with fewer plugs for temporary abandonment.

As a third choice, they may apply limited plugs strategically around the oil or gas zones within the well — but must then seal the well more thoroughly within two more years.

It's not clear if companies would be required to fully seal the Idle Iron wells that are already listed as temporarily abandoned.

Under the new rules, future wells that drop out of production on active leases also must be sealed within three years.

Gene Beck, a petroleum engineer at Texas A&M University who used to work in the petroleum industry, said many companies won't like the Idle Iron program "because it's going to cost a lot of money." It is not clear how much, but companies will have to spend at least $3 billion to permanently plug wells on both active and expired federal leases, according to earlier BOEMRE estimates.

Apache Corp., which operates the most Idle Iron wells with 587 in its portfolio, foresees spending $317 million to plug and decommission its own assets in the Gulf just this year.

Drew Hunger, who manages Gulf decommissioning work for Apache, said he views the timetable of the Idle Iron program as reasonably ambitious, but he added that it also appears to allow for "the limitations on available contractor equipment and manpower."

He said industry complaints about the program revolve around the paperwork and the limited size of BOEMRE's staffing to process it.

Chevron U.S.A., the company with the second-highest number of wells in the program at 528, did not respond to a request for comment. BP has 24 such wells and also did not respond.

Federal officials have said little about how the new program will be enforced. Neither the BOEMRE nor the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, which monitors sea pollution, responded to repeated requests for interviews about the program.

___

The AP National Investigative Team can be reached at investigate(at)ap.org

"Choose a job you love and you will not have to work a day in your life" (Confucius)

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Luis Miguel Goitizolo

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RE: ARE WE NOW IN THE END TIMES?
4/22/2011 10:56:27 AM
And isn't it ironic!

AP Enterprise: BP is looking strong a year later


BP going strong a year after oil spill

Even as the region struggles to recover, the company is thriving and once again eyes the Gulf. Profit of $5.6 billion

NEW ORLEANS – It's hard to tell that just a year ago BP was reeling from financial havoc and an American public out for blood. The oil giant at the center of one of the world's biggest environmental crises is making strong profits again, its stock has largely rebounded, and it is paying dividends to shareholders once more. It is also pursuing new ventures from the Arctic to India. It is even angling to explore again in the deep waters of the Gulf of Mexico, where it holds more leases than any competitor.

"BP has a critical role to play in meeting the world's ever-growing need for energy," BP chairman Carl-Henric Svanberg said at the company's annual meeting in London last week.

While some of this angers Gulf Coast residents, it is a testament to some deft handling of the crisis by the company, which after some major gaffes early on conducted a housecleaning in its executive ranks, adopted a careful communications strategy and assigned an outsider to handle victims' compensation claims.

The company's decision to open its checkbook and pump hundreds of millions of dollars into Gulf communities, help out-of-work rig hands and support Gulf research also contributed to the turnaround.

Yet BP is not out of the woods yet.

BP employees could be found criminally negligent for the 206 million gallons of oil the U.S. government says gushed from the company's blown-out well and for the 11 men who died when the Deepwater Horizon rig it was leasing exploded. Hundreds of lawsuits and civil and criminal fines could add billions of dollars to its already staggering liabilities. And the findings of several investigations still under way could further damage its reputation.

BP has estimated that the spill will cost the company at least $40.9 billion but is hoping to force some of its partners on the doomed rig to assume some of those costs.

There is also lasting damage in the Gulf, including empty hotels, out-of-work oystermen and fears of a badly disrupted underwater ecosystem. And some of those worst hit by the spill scoff at BP's oft-repeated promises to make people whole again.

"I don't know of one person who has come to me and said, `I've been made whole. I feel good.' Everything is completely negative from everybody," said Louisiana fishing guide Ron Price.

When BP finally managed to cap its runaway well in July and permanently sealed it in September, the bankruptcy talk was reduced to a whisper and the 24-hour-a-day beating the company was taking on television and newspaper front pages eased up.

By the fall, there was talk that the crisis wasn't as bad as feared and that the Gulf might recover sooner than expected. Then soaring oil prices came to the company's rescue, boosting its bottom line. Now, as Wednesday's anniversary approaches, the oil spill that so riveted the nation's attention is beginning to fade into memory.

For the families of the men killed on the rig, BP's resilience can be downright painful.

"BP has never done anything other than send flowers and three people to Jason's memorial service," said Shelley Anderson, the widow of rig worker Jason Anderson.

BP officials point out that they set aside $20 billion for a fund that is still processing claims for victims of the disaster, though only $3.8 billion of it has actually been paid to date. They also still employ cleanup and recovery workers, though far fewer than before.

Company officials also say they are living up to their commitments to restore the region's economy and environment.

"BP has not — and will not — shy away from its responsibilities," CEO Bob Dudley told shareholders at the company's annual meeting, which was marked by scuffles between protesters and security guards, and investor dissent over the performance of several directors.

Dudley took over Oct. 1 as CEO after the ouster of Tony Hayward, who infuriated Gulf residents by saying during the crisis, "I'd like my life back." Dudley, who grew up in Mississippi and was the first American ever to lead the British company, quickly sought to move BP beyond the crisis, firing the executive responsible for deep-water wells and announcing a new unit to police safety throughout the company.

BP also signed energy-exploration agreements in Indonesia, China, India and Australia. It agreed to pay $680 million for a controlling interest in Brazilian ethanol and sugar producer CNAA. BP also agreed to pay India's Reliance Industries $7.2 billion for a stake in key oil and gas blocks, and announced a deal with Russia's state-owned oil firm Rosneft that would involve exploration in the Arctic Sea, where a big oil spill could damage a pristine ecosystem far less resilient than the Gulf of Mexico. The deal is facing opposition and is not yet final.

BP isn't shying away from the Gulf, either, though it is moving more methodically there amid the political currents.

The first deep-water permit issued after the Obama administration lifted a post-spill drilling ban went to Noble Energy Inc. for work on a well off the coast of Louisiana. BP is not the operator but it has a 46 percent stake in the well. BP also bought out Shell's 25 percent interest in two Gulf fields in December, making BP the sole owner of both.

Spokesman Scott Dean said BP, the leading leaseholder in the Gulf, will remain active in all facets of the Gulf of Mexico oil exploration. The company has applied for a permit to drill one new well in the Gulf and is certain to apply for more.

The Bureau of Ocean Energy Management Regulation and Enforcement said BP's applications will be weighed just like any other company's.

"BP is trying to refill its new-project pipeline with deals in the Arctic, offshore India, and Asia, but the Gulf of Mexico remains a key region for the company," said industry analyst Fadel Gheit of Oppenheimer & Co. "They don't want to push too hard, knowing politicians and environmentalists will be all over them."

Despite the uncertainties, BP announced Feb. 1 that it would restore its dividend and that it made a fourth-quarter profit of $5.6 billion, a 30 percent increase from the same period a year earlier. Rising oil prices are certain to boost its cash on hand and could lead to even higher profits. BP's stock fell 54 percent in the months after the spill, but it has regained much of that since then. Its stock is now trading about 20 percent lower than what it was the day before the rig exploded.

BP was able to deflect some of the criticism by shifting the paying of victims' compensation to claims czar Ken Feinberg, who has absorbed much of the blame for what victims say is a slow payment process.

Overall, the oil giant still has a lot of work to do to improve its reputation. Five Gulf Coast residents who had planned to tell investors about their post-spill woes were denied access to the company meeting, prompting confrontations with guards. Inside, hundreds of BP investors questioned board members about what they said was excessive executive pay and a lack of transparency on safety improvements.

In Washington, lawmakers are watching BP closely.

CEO Dudley still spends a great deal of time reassuring detractors.

"We need to earn back your trust, along with that of state and federal leaders and the trust of Gulf Coast residents and customers," he said at an industry conference in Houston last month. "We are determined we will once again restore that trust, and I realize this requires action, not words."

"Choose a job you love and you will not have to work a day in your life" (Confucius)

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RE: ARE WE NOW IN THE END TIMES?
4/22/2011 1:55:01 PM

Miguel, thank you for posting this. It is a shame and they should see what has happened with the people around the area. Things are not going as smooth as they make it look. People are still struggling and may never have lives as they had before. Yet, the big oil keeps on thriving.

Have a blessed Easter weekend.

Love,

Sara

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