Political pundits are running out of superlatives to describe thefallout President Barack Obama faces if Republican Scott Brown capturesthe Senate seat that the late liberal lion Ted Kennedy held for morethan four decades, in a state with a 3-to-1 Democratic voterregistration advantage.

Although the Democratic get-out-the-vote machine and heavy snowfalls inBrown strongholds have left the outcome very much in doubt, the mostrecent polls show a powerful surge favoring the GOP challenger.

Anti-Obamacare sentiment in the Bay State, as well as a series ofdamaging gaffes by Brown's opponent, Massachusetts Attorney GeneralMartha Coakley, have propelled him into the lead by double digits,according to some polls.

Obama aides reportedly hvae begun to advise Democratic leaders privately that they consider the race a lost cause.

Already, analysts are beginning to assess the political fallout fromwhat Suffolk University pollster David Paleologos predicts will be apolitical "shot heard 'round the world." But in some ways, the impactis difficult to gauge, simply because the scope of the turnabout inMassachusetts is almost unprecedented.

A Coakley defeat despite Obama's heavy personal investment in the racemight constitute the biggest upset in modern political history, somepolitical pundits say. Obama taped robocalls, made a campaignappearance, blasted his e-mail list, and is appearing in a last-minuteCoakley ad that is blanketing Massachusetts airwaves – all perhaps tono avail.

It is a stunning reversal, given that polls showed Coakley coasting along with a 30-point lead only a few months ago.

Here are the sea changes to expect in the immediate future if Brown wins, according to a wide range of experts and analysts:

Beware the Spinmeisters

The first reverberation, political experts say, will be massive mediacoverage and a full-court press by the Obama administration andDemocrats to spin the upset to their advantage – as difficult as thatmay be.

Look for the administration to send out surrogates who will say thepeople have spoken and the administration has heard their message. Theadministration will go back to the political drawing board, they'llsay, while pointing out that Democrats still have strong majorities inCongress.

"We're told that the president is going to come back fighting,"Politico's Mike Allen said Tuesday on MSNBC's “Morning Joe” program."We're going to hear the president with much more tough, populistlanguage. We heard him out there saying, 'We're going to get our moneyback from the banks.' We heard him say Sunday at that [Coakley] rally,'The bankers don't need another senator in Washington.'

"And so even though they'll have to accept smaller victories, you'regoing to hear the president in a fighting mood trying to say, 'Look, Isaid change was going to be hard. Whoa! Change was harder than Ithought,'" Allen said.

Obamacare in the Balance

A lot of attention has focused on whether the president's healthcarereforms, which both houses of Congress are revising, will be a casualtyif Brown wins and the GOP gains its 41st vote in the Senate – enough tomount a filibuster.

Of course, Democrats are working on a "plan B" in case Coakley loses.But while there are certainly parliamentary avenues available by whichhealthcare reform still could be enacted, skittish Democrats up forre-election may find those options politically unpalatable. With publicopposition to Obamacare continuing to rise, at some point the questionbecomes how much damage Democrats are willing to sustain.

New York Times columnist David Brooks wrote that ramming healthcarereform through after a Coakley defeat would be "political suicide."

"It would be the act of a party so arrogant, elitist and contemptuousof popular wisdom that it would not deserve to govern," he writes."Marie Antoinette would applaud, but voters would rage."

Even firebrand New York Democrat Anthony Weiner said on "Morning Joe"Tuesday that “I think you can make a pretty good argument thathealthcare might be dead” if Coakley loses.

There will be fierce liberal arguments to proceed at any cost, however.

Facing voters in the midterm elections without having acted on thepresident's primary policy initiative would be a formula for disasterat the polls, they'll say.

Obama's Big Agenda

Election years are known mostly as legislative wastelands – no onewants to pass a big-ticket item that an opponent could use against hima few months later. After Democrats shake off the effects of the Brownhaymaker, look for that to be even more the case.

Although Congress will still be under pressure to pass measures thatpromise to boost employment and revive the economy, much of theadministration's transformative agenda will be put on the shelf. Energycap-and-trade legislation was already a non-starter in the Senate, andit would certainly remain so. Chances of passing immigration reformthat includes some indirect form of amnesty for illegal aliens would beremote indeed.

"It’s hard to see how the more controversial parts of Obama’s agendaget passed now, at least after healthcare reform, which Democrats canram through in various ways, quickly, if they want," Larry Sabato, thedirector of the University of Virginia's Center for Politics, toldNewsmax. "I would bet many Democrats would say they’ve given enoughblood at the office. Now they’ll spend their energy trying to find away to get re-elected."

And as the Brown-Coakley race demonstrates, that won't be easy forDemocrats to do. But look for Obama to continue to cater to hisleft-leaning political base; in the aftermath of Coakley-Brown, thatmay be all he's got left.

It would be too extreme to say the shocking setback in Massachusettswould transform Obama into lame-duck status. But given the legislativegridlock he can expect anyway in an election year, the remainder of histerm could prove to be a very difficult battle indeed.

A 'Plan B' for Everything

David Paleologos, director of the Suffolk University Political ResearchCenter, says a Coakley-Obama defeat will "totally change how theadministration approaches the next nine months."

Democrats are looking furiously for "Plan B" on healthcare reform ifthe political balance shifts in the Senate. But Paleologos says theadministration's legislative strategies will all have to change.

"That's tells me strategically they're going to have to have a fallbackfor every other issue," Paleologos told Newsmax, "and to work on anyonethat's borderline in the Senate.

"And in fact it might bind the administration's hands, which isn'tgoing to help at the polls, especially if the recession doesn't sort ofbottom out, and people [don't] begin to feel that we're turningaround."

What remains to be seen, however, is whether Team Obama can be flexibleenough ideologically to follow the course of former President BillClinton, who responded to his midterm defeat by moving to the centerpolitically.

Brickbats From the Left

As much as the president faces criticism from the right, a defeat inMassachusetts will evoke howls of protests from prominent figures onthe left.

Expect MSNBC hosts Rachel Maddow and Keith Olbermann, and New YorkTimes columnist Paul Krugman, to lead the charge. Although liberalenclaves may circle the wagons initially. they also will complain thatthe reason for the president's sagging fortunes is that he hasn't goneleftward enough.

Obama needs to return to his core values, they will say, ignore thegrowing cries for fiscal restraint, and propose more big-governmentprograms to jump start the flagging economy. Sometimes, it seems,failure isn't an orphan after all.

Rediscovering Bipartisanship

The president came into office promising to nurture bipartisanship butfelt he really didn't have to work with Republicans because his partyenjoyed a supermajority.

The latest example of the administration's hubris: locking Republicansout of the Obamacare negotiations, and allowing C-SPAN to televise theweeks-long proceedings for only a single hour.

If Obama hopes to make any progress in Congress, he'll have to scaleback his ambitions and get at least some Republicans to sign on to hisproposals. Look for him to soften the barrage of anti-Bush rhetoric.

So the irony of a Republican win in Massachusetts today is that itcould encourage the president to begin to deliver on his campaignpledge for a new style of politics.

"They will need to fulfill the promise of bipartisanship, because it'snow the reality," Paleologos told Newsmax. "With the numberspotentially being 59 to 41, that changes so much of the methodology ofdoing the work in Congress. And that's going to have a significantimpact."

No More Mystique

Remember how international leaders jostled to have their picture takenwith the new president after the inauguration? Hollywood stars tried tocadge a visit to the White House, and his choice of a family pet becamea front-page news story?

Well, if all the president's men and a bevy of attack ads couldn't saveCoakley from a bitter loss, the Obama honeymoon is arguably over onceand for all. Post-Coakley, he may find he's no longer the darling heonce was on Capitol Hill, let alone a celebrity when he meets theleaders of other countries.

"If Brown wins, Obama will have spent a huge amount of politicalcapital and cache for naught," Boston University professor andpolitical analyst Tobe Berkovitz told Newsmax. "This will have a hugeimpact on the president's ability to fly in and out for campaignappearances for democrats at the start of the 2010 election.

"He's used up several political lives stumping for candidates in 2009and 2010 and promoting his policies for economic recovery, the waragainst terrorism, and most significantly healthcare reform," Berkovitzsaid. "A loss of the 'Kennedy seat' would be a huge repudiation of theObama and Democratic agenda. This might not prove insurmountable in thelong run, but will place the president and the democrats in a massivetailspin into the spring.

Presidential promises to leverage his popularity on behalf ofcandidates who support his agenda will ring hollow, Berkovitz said. Thepresident remains personally popular with voters, but that status maynow be at risk. In fact, don't be surprised if Democrats fromconservative districts begin to distance themselves from a presidentwhose popularity appears to be on the wane.

"The 41-59 party split [in the Senate] will be the least of Obama'sproblems. He and the democratic leadership will be battling withincumbents up for reelection who will be watching their politicalcareers evaporate, as they march in and out of votes forced by theHouse and Senate leadership," Berkovitz said.

Congressional Fallout

One of the problems facing White House political strategists has been arash of Democratic retirements in Congress. Parker Griffith, theerstwhile Democrat from Alabama, even switched parties to avoid theexpected midterm bloodbath bearing down on incumbents.

People shouldn't be surprised if even more Democrats opt out of running in November, in the wake of Brown-Coakley, Sabato said.

"Obama was unable to help his candidate in a state [Massachusetts] hecarried with 62 percent. He didn’t help Jon Corzine last fall eventhough he won New Jersey by about a 15 percent [margin]. So you have towonder where he can make a difference for Democrats in the midtermelections.

"This has got to scare the bejesus out of Democrats everywhere," Sabatotold Newsmax. "If Brown can win in Massachusetts, the second-mostDemocratic state, then what must Democrats who represent Republicanstates be thinking? It’s possible this will nudge a few more Democratsto retire from Congress."

Republican Gains

As the national political momentum swings away from Democrats, much ofit will swing over to Republicans. The bombshell that a GOP win inMassachusetts would represent would bring with it a whole host ofbenefits for the party of Lincoln and Reagan.

"The national Republican brand will no longer be toxic," commentatorand GOP strategist Roger Stone told Newsmax. "Look for party-switchers– moderate and conservative Democrats who switch and jump intostatewide races."

Already the party is enjoying a resurgence of enthusiasm from its base,now that the party faithful see that the "Obama miracle" appearsastoundingly short lived.

Along with that will come money – lots of it. It is a sad reality ofU.S. politics that special-interest lobbyists read the political tealeaves to determine which party's fortunes are on the rise, and thencontribute money accordingly in order to buy influence.

Pundits say it was no accident Obama attracted record-breakingdonations in his presidential campaign – once the economy tanked inSeptember 2009, it didn't take Svengali to figure out which candidatewas likely to win.

Now, the flow of dollars will begin to reverse, meaning GOP candidates will be much better off than in recent elections.

There's another important political impact felt as the pendulum swingsto the right: GOP leaders will find it much easier to attracttop-drawer candidates willing to toss their hats in the political ringand run for office.

Depending on the district, however, Democrats who step forward to run could be accused of having a death wish.

More Tea

One of the big winners in Massachusetts: the tea party movement.Although tea party leaders kept a low profile in Massachusetts to avoidalienating die-hard Democrats, they poured in resources to help Brownmount his bid to come from behind. An upset victory by a candidatewhose No. 1 issue was fiscal restraint can only bolster the tea partyfaithful.

"The tea party movement, named for a Boston event, will grow as a vehicle for reform," Stone predicted.

Demise of a Media Lovefest

During Obama's first year in office, he basked in positive press thelikes of which arguably no previous president had experienced. But withhis job-approval numbers in a free-fall – and likely to take even moreof a hit in the weeks to come as the media runs postmortems ad nauseamon why he couldn't save Coakley from defeat – Obama will face muchtougher questioning.

If Coakley loses, the media universe that will be forced to recognizewhat the rest of the nation realized a long time ago: The presidentisn't the ratings magic that the media once thought he was.

The biggest change if Brown wins may be an altered perception thatObama represents a new era in politics. In precisely one year's time,the hope and change promised by his move into 1600 Pennsylvania Ave.will be sucked into the Beltway swamp, possibly forever.

All of which raises another question: Can Republican leaders reversetheir well-earned reputation for not being able to handle success?

"The Republicans have the ability to make a sow's ear out of thepolitical silk purse that might be handed to them by the voters inMassachusetts," Berkovitz told Newsmax. "Just as the Democrats misreadthe election of President Obama as a possible realignment rather than arepudiation of the Bush administration.

"The Republicans should place themselves on hubris alert," he said."The possible win in Massachusetts should be seen as much as a 'throwthe bums out' vote as 'vote the Republicans in.'"

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