Grassfire Nation (Parent company of LibertyNews.com) performed a survey from January 23-25, 2012. The survey was taken by 29,000 members and hit on a number of questions related to the 2012 GOP primary election. Of the 29,000, 75.7% of respondents said they closely identify with the ideals of the movement, and 17.2% said they are actively a part of the tea party movement.

The margin of error is at 0.56% with 95% confidence for the Grassfire Nation audience. First let’s take a look at the national results. We’ll follow up with some points about the numbers.

Question #1: If the caucus or primary were held in your state today, which of the following Republican presidential candidates would you support?

1. Newt Gingrich – 48.2%
2. Rick Santorum – 24.6%
3. Mitt Romney – 14.8%
4. Ron Paul – 12.4%

Question #2: Which of the following Republican presidential candidates do you think will ultimately win the G.O.P. nomination?

1. Newt Gingrich – 54.7%
2. Mitt Romney – 32.2%
3. Rick Santorum – 6.9%
4. Ron Paul – 6.2%

Question #3: Which of the following Republican presidential candidates in your opinion has the best chance to defeat President Obama?

1. Newt Gingrich – 56.7%
2. Mitt Romney – 23.1%
3. Rick Santorum – 11.6%
4. Ron Paul – 8.6%

Question #4: Please indicate which candidate(s) you would find acceptable as the GOP nominee

1. Newt Gingrich – 69.1%
2. Rick Santorum – 60.6%
3. Mitt Romney – 42.5%
4. Ron Paul – 21.7%

Question #5: Which of the following Republican presidential candidates is your LEAST FAVORITE?

1. Ron Paul – 56.8%
2. Mitt Romney – 24.7%
3. Newt Gingrich – 13.1%
4. Rick Santorum – 5.3%

Final Question: Would you support a conservative who ran for president as a third-party or independent candidate?

• No – 79.1%
• Yes – 15.6%
• Undecided – 5.3%

The take-aways here are numerous. It’s also important to note that our survey results jive with the latest out by Rasmussen showing 52% of tea party voters support Newt Gingrich.

According to the latest Rasmussen poll, Newt Gingrich now enjoys the support of 52 percent of Tea Party voters, and his huge advantage among such voters has vaulted him into the national lead in the GOP presidential race. The poll was taken yesterday, two days after Gingrich’s win in the South Carolina primary, and it shows the former speaker leading Mitt Romney by an overall margin of 7 percentage points — 35 to 28 percent. That result marks a 10-point swing between the two candidates from six days earlier, when Romney led Gingrich by 3 points in Rasmussen’s polling (30 to 27 percent), and a 20-point swing from 19 days earlier, when Romney led Gingrich by 13 points (29 to 16 percent).

That’s interesting because Rasmussen, while being accused as using his data to favor the “insiders,” has actually held a very accurate read on the vote to date. Rasmussen’s survey results have been right on the money in the first three states and it’s telling that our survey shows a reflection of what he’s finding.

Getting back to our survey…

First, for all the messaging we’ve seen about Ron Paul being the tea party granddaddy, it’s amazing that he fails to shine at any point in the survey. Ron Paul is clearly the least favorite out of the 29,000 surveyed, he’s perceived as the least likely nominee, and the tea party base views him as having the worst chances at defeating Barack Obama.

This flies in the face of the argument that Ron Paul’s foreign policy isn’t damaging to his brand. On domestic policy one could easily assume Ron Paul wins hands down. It’s the foreign policy that immediately yanks him to the back of the line.

(That last paragraph operates on assumption, albiet a safe one.)

Second, these results show a clear and indisputable rejection of Mitt Romney by the tea party base. On question #4, pertaining to candidates being acceptable, Romney can only pull 42.5%. That means every other tea party voter finds Romney totally unacceptable. That’s a BIG problem for Romney in that the tea party movement is currently the most energized part of the Republican voter base.

Third, tea partiers flat our reject the idea of a third party candidate in 2012. Hands down, no questions asked, there simply is no interest or support for such an effort.

Last, and definitely the most obvious, Newt Gingrich appears to have solidified strong support from just under half the tea party movement. Now the question is no longer one of who has the most support within the movement, it’s more a matter of the movement’s ability (or inability) to out-perform the traditional GOP primary voter base.

South Carolina was a major player in all of this, but Florida is the Ace. Florida can deliver a knock-out punch to either Romney or Gingrich. Yes, you can still pull off a win without Florida, but it would be a long and very difficult path.

Grassfire Nation also surveyed around 3,200 Florida primary voters and found that 55% currently support Newt Gingrich. Only 16.8 support Romney, and Santorum comes in with exactly the same.

Florida is the main event right now and it’s going to be a wild weekend going into the final 24 hour show. Buckle up and get ready… we’re about to find out who’s really winning this thing.

-Eric Odom