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Peter Fogel

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RE: HSIG - The Collapse Of The Euro Is Inevitable According to European Bankers
2/16/2010 6:11:29 AM
Hello Friends,

For the past month much has been written about Greece's financial/economic failure and the need for an EU bailout. The only problem is that forecasters are claiming such a bailout for Greece will bring about the eventual failure of the Euro especially when you consider that other countries in the EU community are in similar situations like Spain, Portugal, Ireland and Italy.

Speculators are steering away from the euro and turning to the dollar something that hasn't happened much lately.

In times like this there are always other options and I wonder what Greece will do if the EU bankers decide not to bail them out. Who will they turn to for help and assistance? Some food for thought I believe.

Below is an interesting article on the subject.

Shalom,

Peter


French Bank: Euro Collapse 'Inevitable'


By: Greg Brown

The euro, already under pressure, came under renewed attack Monday as a French bank speculated that the currency union would inevitably collapse.

Meanwhile, a former chief economist of the European Central Bank warned that a bailout for member country Greece could damage the euro's credibility.

Société Générale strategist Albert Edwards warned investors that any help given to Greece merely “delays the inevitable break-up of the euro zone,” while former European Central Bank Chief Economist Otmar Issing, in a Financial Times piece, said bailing out Greece would be a “major blow” to the currency.

“The viability of the whole framework — nothing less — is at stake,” wrote Issing.

“Financial assistance for countries that violated the terms of their participation in EMU would be a major blow for the credibility of the whole framework.”

The euro could sink to $1.3483 from its $1.5144 high in November, traders told the U.K. Daily Mail.

At issue are the terms of the pact that created the euro, which requires its members to maintain an annual budget deficit no higher than 3 percent of GDP and a national debt lower than 60 percent of GDP.

Greece is expected to hit 12.5 percent deficit in 2009 and debt of 72 percent by 2010 and 2011.

Details of a plan to bail out Greece are being hammered out today and Tuesday at a special meeting of the European Central Bank's Economic and Financial Affairs Council, Ecofin.

In addition to the open question of Greece, the fate other countries with similar debt and deficit problems, notably Spain, Italy, Ireland, and Portugal, hang in the balance.

Currency speculators have increased their bets on the dollar to their highest since 2008, while short euro positions rose to a record, according to Reuters.

Meanwhile, euro critics have piled on. David Cameron, the opposition leader in the U.K., reiterated his statement that Britain would “never join the euro.”

Cameron is expected to become prime minister of English in a few months, ending 13 years of Labor government.

Martin Feldstein, a former adviser to President Ronald Reagan, said the euro system wasn't working.

“There's too much incentive for countries to run up big deficits as there's no feedback until a crisis,” he said.

© Moneynews. All rights reserved.


Peter Fogel
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Peter Fogel

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RE: HSIG - In The Middle East Bet On A Strong Horse
2/16/2010 7:49:52 AM
Hello Friends,

There are those amongst us that know the Arab/Muslim mentality from close encounters with them and they will appreciate the below article.

In essence the basic rule of thumb is that Muslims respect strength and despise and take advantage of any show of weakness. We can see evidence of this rule with the Iranians doing as they wish since all they hear are empty threats by the West especially B Hussein Obowma. If the Western world doesn't wake up ASAP the results won't be pretty.

The problem is that B Hussein with his Islamic agenda is playing right into their hands and makes matters worse with every foolish action or in most cases non action he takes.

Shalom,

Peter



In Mideast, Bet on a Strong Horse

by Daniel Pipes
National Review Online

February 16, 2010

The violence and cruelty of Arabs often perplexes Westerners.

Not only does the leader of Hizbullah proclaim "We love death," but so too does, for example, a 24-year-old man who last month yelled "We love death more than you love life" as he crashed his car on the Bronx-Whitestone Bridge in New York City. As two parents in St. Louis honor-killed their teenage daughter with thirteen stabs of a butcher's knife, the Palestinian father shouted "Die! Die quickly! Die quickly! . . . Quiet, little one! Die, my daughter, die!" – and the local Arab community supported them against murder charges. A prince from Abu Dhabi recently tortured a grain dealer whom he accused of fraud; despite a video of the atrocity appearing on television internationally, the prince was acquitted while his accusers were convicted.

On a larger scale, one accounting finds 15,000 terrorist attacks since 9/11. Governments throughout the Arabic-speaking countries rely more on brutality than on the rule of law. The drive to eliminate Israel still persists even as new insurrections take hold; the latest one has flared up in Yemen.

Several excellent attempts to explain the pathology of Arab politics exist; my personal favorites include studies by David Pryce-Jones and Philip Salzman. Now add to these The Strong Horse: Power, Politics, and the Clash of Arab Civilizations (Doubleday, $26), an entertaining yet deep and important analysis by Lee Smith, Middle East correspondent for the Weekly Standard.

Smith takes as his prooftext Osama bin Laden's comment in 2001, "When people see a strong horse and a weak horse, by nature, they will like the strong horse." What Smith calls the strong-horse principle contains two banal elements: Seize power and then maintain it. This principle predominates because Arab public life has "no mechanism for peaceful transitions of authority or power sharing, and therefore [it] sees political conflict as a fight to the death between strong horses." Violence, Smith observes is "central to the politics, society, and culture of the Arabic-speaking Middle East." It also, more subtly, implies keeping a wary eye on the next strong horse, triangulating, and hedging bets.

Smith argues that the strong horse principle, not Western imperialism or Zionism, "has determined the fundamental character of the Arabic-speaking Middle East." The Islamic religion itself both fits into the ancient pattern of strong-horse assertiveness and then promulgates it. Muhammad, the Islamic prophet, was a strongman as well as a religious figure. Sunni Muslims have ruled over the centuries "by violence, repression, and coercion." Ibn Khaldun's famous theory of history amounts to a cycle of violence in which strong horses replace weak ones. The humiliation of dhimmis daily reminds non-Muslims who rules.

Smith's prism offers insights into modern Middle East history. He presents Pan-Arab nationalism as an effort to transform the mini-horses of the national states into a single super-horse and Islamism as an effort to make Muslims again powerful. Israel serves as "a proxy strong horse" for both the United States and for the Saudi-Egyptian bloc in the latter's cold war rivalry with Iran's bloc. In a strong-horse environment, militias appeal more than do elections. Lacking a strong horse, Arab liberals make little headway. The United States being the most powerful non-Arab and non-Muslim state makes anti-Americanism both inevitable and endemic.

caption begin

Lebanese Druze leader Walid Jumblatt suggests American car bombings in Damascus.

caption end
Which brings us to policies by non-Arab actors: unless they are forceful and show true staying power, Smith stresses, they lose. Being nice – say, withdrawing unilaterally from southern Lebanon and Gaza – leads to inevitable failure. The George W. Bush administration rightly initiated a democratization project, raising high hopes, but then betrayed Arab liberals by not carrying through. In Iraq, the administration ignored advice to install a democratically-minded strongman.

More broadly, when the U.S. government flinches, others (e.g., the Iranian leadership) have an opportunity to "force their own order on the region." Walid Jumblatt, a Lebanese leader, has half-seriously suggested that Washington "send car bombs to Damascus" to get its message across and signal its understanding of Arab ways.

Smith's simple and near-universal principle provides a tool to comprehend the Arabs' cult of death, honor killings, terrorist attacks, despotism, warfare, and much else. He acknowledges that the strong-horse principle may strike Westerners as ineffably crude, but he correctly insists on its being a cold reality that outsiders must recognize, take into account, and respond to.

Mr. Pipes is director of the Middle East Forum and Taube distinguished visiting fellow at the Hoover Institution of Stanford University.


Peter Fogel
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Peter Fogel

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RE: HSIG - In The End They always Know Who To Blame
2/16/2010 7:58:18 AM
Hello Friends,

Nothing really changes much as Ecclesiastes said: "There's nothing new under the sun".

Here's today's Golden Oldie Dry Bones and you'll understand what I'm talking about.

Shalom,

Peter


Today's offering is from 2004.

I began the Dry Bones Blog in August 2005 and much of my work in the year or two before that date is really current. So I decided to broaden the definition of the "Oldies Department" to function as the place to "reprint" all pre-blog material.

* * *
So is this cartoon still accurate? Does the West still secretly hope that Israel will stop the Iranian threat? ...I'm starting to think that period is over. I'm starting to think that the West has lost the will to survive.
-Dry Bones- Israel's Political Comic Strip Since 1973

Peter Fogel
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Peter Fogel

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RE: HSIG - What's The Real Reason For VP Biden's Trip To Israel?
2/17/2010 7:23:57 AM
Hello Friends,

There's a lot of speculation to the reasons for VP Joe Biden's visit to Israel.

Is it to show support for Israel in the face of the Iranian nuclear threat?

Spout nonsense about sanctions after some future delayed deadline that will be delayed again and again?

Pressure Israel to appease the PA/Fatah/PLO and Hamas and get nothing in return as usual?

The list goes on and on and one thing for sure in my opinion nothing positive will happen in favor of Israel and I'm betting on negatives as par for the course considering B Hussein's Muslim agenda.

Here's Dry Bones take on Biden's visit.

Shalom,

Peter


Reaction here in Israel to the announcement that President Obama is sending his Vice President to Israel is split.

Some of us believe that he's coming to pressure us to not get too upset about the Iranian nuclear threat. Others figure that he's coming to show solidarity with us.

A tiny minority of us are just eager for a chance to hear one of Biden's famous mis-statement flubs while he's here.

Obviously I'm in the third category.

-Dry Bones- Israel's Political Comic Strip Since 1973
Peter Fogel
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Jim
Jim Allen

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RE: Human Shields In Gaza
2/17/2010 8:22:35 AM
Hello Peter,

This article is telling and interesting. Also it lays blame on the wrong actor in the play.
I am reading Bob Woodward's 'State of Denial" and it appears that there was a lot of unfortunate incidences and misleading information from the so called boots on the ground. Unfortunately it seems the previous Administration cut spending on this part of the public defense spending and relied mostly on satellites to gain information. These work great with actual boots on the ground. Unfortunately the intellectual, Lawyer types never served so that thought just totally escaped them,

Add to that thr events of 911, Katrina, the misinformation that Saddam was in pocession of WMD's. Along with a piss, poor, micro-managing control freak as Secretary of Defense. Man Rumsfeld, is a real prick and we all thought Cheney was the ahole.

Anyways this article is right on target. Bush was in charge but, I say blame it on Clinton and yes Carter, even.

Jim Allen

Quote:
Hello Friends,

There are those amongst us that know the Arab/Muslim mentality from close encounters with them and they will appreciate the below article.

In essence the basic rule of thumb is that Muslims respect strength and despise and take advantage of any show of weakness. We can see evidence of this rule with the Iranians doing as they wish since all they hear are empty threats by the West especially B Hussein Obowma. If the Western world doesn't wake up ASAP the results won't be pretty.

The problem is that B Hussein with his Islamic agenda is playing right into their hands and makes matters worse with every foolish action or in most cases non action he takes.

Shalom,

Peter



In Mideast, Bet on a Strong Horse

by Daniel Pipes
National Review Online

February 16, 2010

The violence and cruelty of Arabs often perplexes Westerners.

Not only does the leader of Hizbullah proclaim "We love death," but so too does, for example, a 24-year-old man who last month yelled "We love death more than you love life" as he crashed his car on the Bronx-Whitestone Bridge in New York City. As two parents in St. Louis honor-killed their teenage daughter with thirteen stabs of a butcher's knife, the Palestinian father shouted "Die! Die quickly! Die quickly! . . . Quiet, little one! Die, my daughter, die!" – and the local Arab community supported them against murder charges. A prince from Abu Dhabi recently tortured a grain dealer whom he accused of fraud; despite a video of the atrocity appearing on television internationally, the prince was acquitted while his accusers were convicted.

On a larger scale, one accounting finds 15,000 terrorist attacks since 9/11. Governments throughout the Arabic-speaking countries rely more on brutality than on the rule of law. The drive to eliminate Israel still persists even as new insurrections take hold; the latest one has flared up in Yemen.

Several excellent attempts to explain the pathology of Arab politics exist; my personal favorites include studies by David Pryce-Jones and Philip Salzman. Now add to these The Strong Horse: Power, Politics, and the Clash of Arab Civilizations (Doubleday, $26), an entertaining yet deep and important analysis by Lee Smith, Middle East correspondent for the Weekly Standard.

Smith takes as his prooftext Osama bin Laden's comment in 2001, "When people see a strong horse and a weak horse, by nature, they will like the strong horse." What Smith calls the strong-horse principle contains two banal elements: Seize power and then maintain it. This principle predominates because Arab public life has "no mechanism for peaceful transitions of authority or power sharing, and therefore [it] sees political conflict as a fight to the death between strong horses." Violence, Smith observes is "central to the politics, society, and culture of the Arabic-speaking Middle East." It also, more subtly, implies keeping a wary eye on the next strong horse, triangulating, and hedging bets.

Smith argues that the strong horse principle, not Western imperialism or Zionism, "has determined the fundamental character of the Arabic-speaking Middle East." The Islamic religion itself both fits into the ancient pattern of strong-horse assertiveness and then promulgates it. Muhammad, the Islamic prophet, was a strongman as well as a religious figure. Sunni Muslims have ruled over the centuries "by violence, repression, and coercion." Ibn Khaldun's famous theory of history amounts to a cycle of violence in which strong horses replace weak ones. The humiliation of dhimmis daily reminds non-Muslims who rules.

Smith's prism offers insights into modern Middle East history. He presents Pan-Arab nationalism as an effort to transform the mini-horses of the national states into a single super-horse and Islamism as an effort to make Muslims again powerful. Israel serves as "a proxy strong horse" for both the United States and for the Saudi-Egyptian bloc in the latter's cold war rivalry with Iran's bloc. In a strong-horse environment, militias appeal more than do elections. Lacking a strong horse, Arab liberals make little headway. The United States being the most powerful non-Arab and non-Muslim state makes anti-Americanism both inevitable and endemic.

caption begin

Lebanese Druze leader Walid Jumblatt suggests American car bombings in Damascus.

caption end
Which brings us to policies by non-Arab actors: unless they are forceful and show true staying power, Smith stresses, they lose. Being nice – say, withdrawing unilaterally from southern Lebanon and Gaza – leads to inevitable failure. The George W. Bush administration rightly initiated a democratization project, raising high hopes, but then betrayed Arab liberals by not carrying through. In Iraq, the administration ignored advice to install a democratically-minded strongman.

More broadly, when the U.S. government flinches, others (e.g., the Iranian leadership) have an opportunity to "force their own order on the region." Walid Jumblatt, a Lebanese leader, has half-seriously suggested that Washington "send car bombs to Damascus" to get its message across and signal its understanding of Arab ways.

Smith's simple and near-universal principle provides a tool to comprehend the Arabs' cult of death, honor killings, terrorist attacks, despotism, warfare, and much else. He acknowledges that the strong-horse principle may strike Westerners as ineffably crude, but he correctly insists on its being a cold reality that outsiders must recognize, take into account, and respond to.

Mr. Pipes is director of the Middle East Forum and Taube distinguished visiting fellow at the Hoover Institution of Stanford University.


May Wisdom and the knowledge you gained go with you,



Jim Allen III
Skype: JAllen3D
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