NKorea Threats Could Strengthen US-China Bond

North Korea's latest outburst of nuclear and military threats has given the U.S. a rare opportunity to build bridges with China — a potential silver lining to the simmering crisis that could revitalize the Obama administration's flagging policy pivot to Asia.

The architect of the administration's Asia policy described a subtle change in Chinese thinking as a result of Pyongyang's recent nuclear tests, rocket launches and abandonment of the armistice that ended the 1950-53 war with South Korea.

Pyongyang has taken similar actions in the past, prompting Washington to step up military readiness in the region to soothe allies South Korea and Japan. But in an unusual rebuke this week, Beijing called North Korea's moves "regrettable" — amounting to a slap from Pyongyang's strongest economic and diplomatic supporter.

"They, I think, recognize that the actions that North Korea has taken in recent months and years are in fact antithetical to their own national security interests," former Assistant Secretary of State Kurt Campbell told a panel Thursday at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies.

"There is a subtle shift in Chinese foreign policy" toward North Korea, said Campbell, who retired in February as the administration's top diplomat in East Asia and the Pacific region. "I don't think that provocative path can be lost on Pyongyang. ... I think that they have succeeded in undermining trust and confidence in Beijing."

State Department spokeswoman Victoria Nuland described "good unity" between the U.S. and China in responding to North Korea.

"The issue here is to continue to recognize that the threats we share are common, and the approaches are more likely to be more effective if we can work well together," she told reporters Thursday.

For now, the crisis has given new rise to the White House's decision to bolster U.S. economic and security in the region that for years was sidelined as a priority by war and terrorism in the Middle East and North Africa.

Much of the policy has centered on China — both in strengthening diplomatic ties and economic trade. But China is an unreliable American ally and has been suspicious about the U.S. entreaty, which it sees as economic competition on its own turf.

Now, North Korea's threats have focused China and the U.S. on a regional security threat instead of an economic rivalry.

"Part of the pivot is to also take a more active interest in the security issues in Asia," Sen. Ben Cardin, D-Md., who chairs a committee overseeing East Asia, said in an interview this week. "And clearly, North Korea is the most difficult country and one that represents security issues for the countries in Asia, as well as indirectly affects U.S. interests."

"With North Korea making these noises, it will require the U.S. to deal with security issues in Asia," Cardin said.

North Korea has ratcheted up an almost daily string of threats toward the U.S., South Korea and Japan and moved a missile with "considerable range" to its east coast, South Korea's defense minister said Thursday. But he emphasized that the missile was not capable of reaching the United States, and officials in Seoul and Washington agree there are no signs that Pyongyang is preparing for a full-scale conflict.

Last year, North Korea launched two long-range rockets — it claims they were satellites but were widely believed to be missiles — and in February announced it conducted an underground nuclear test. A month later, the country declared its 1953 armistice with South Korea void. And this week, Pyongyang said it would restart a shuttered nuclear reactor and ramp up production of atomic weapons material, and began turning away South Korean workers from jointly run factories in the North.

Much of the bellicosity is seen as an effort to shore up loyalty among citizens and the military for North Korea's young leader, Kim Jong Un. But U.S. and U.N. sanctions against Pyongyang after the February nuclear test fueled tensions and began the unusually high level of threats.

It's also a response to annual U.S.-South Korean military drills that — intentional or not — antagonize the North. The ongoing drills have shown a conspicuous display of firepower, including flying American bombers and fighter jets in recent weeks over South Korea and off the Korean peninsula's coast, where a U.S. missile-defense ship also has been deployed.

North Korea's military issued a statement saying its troops have been authorized to counter U.S. "aggression" with "powerful practical military counteractions," including nuclear weapons. Experts doubt Pyongyang is able to launch nuclear-tipped missiles, although the extent of its nuclear arsenal is unclear.

China historically has been lax on enforcing international sanctions against the North. But in what the U.S. took as a positive development, China signed on to stiffer measures in the latest round of U.N. Security Council sanctions announced after the February nuclear test, and there are initial indications that it's increasing cargo inspections. Whether this will lead to concrete steps that will crimp North Korea's weapons' programs and illicit trade in arms, however, remains to be seen.

Patrick Cronin, an Asia expert at the Center for a New American Security and a senior State Department official during the George W. Bush administration, said Beijing also is helping set up back-channel negotiations with North Korea to ease the tensions.

But ultimately, he said, the U.S. isn't likely to succeed in winning China over as a reliable partner against North Korea beyond the current flare-up.

"There is an opportunity for the U.S. and China to renew cooperation on a North Korean strategy," Cronin said. "But we can't put all of our hopes on that cooperation, because it's been less than satisfying in the past. There are limits to how far China and the U.S. have coincidental interests with regard to North Korea. But it's not enough — because, more likely, we're likely to fail."

Asia expert and peace activist Hyun Lee agreed that Washington will be unlikely to turn Beijing against North Korea in the long run. But she said China does not want to see a stepped-up U.S. military presence in the region, and Beijing certainly doesn't want a war on its borders.

China "doesn't want to deal with headaches like the tension between the U.S. and North Korea," said Lee of the Working Group for Peace and Demilitarization in Asia and the Pacific. "I think China is trying to restrain both sides."

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Follow Lara Jakes on Twitter at: https://twitter.com/larajakesAP

Hi Miguel,

Given the relatively small size of North Korea, I don't believe they have much more than mouth power. Someone should stick a pacifier in this little fat boy's mouth. Perhaps he is upset at his barber for given him such a ridiculous haircut and he is lashing out at the world. If they do have Nuclear Bombs, they probably don't even know how to fire them. Countries like North Korea and Iran keep making these threats, but never act on them. Sometimes I feel that they should either prove it or shut up. Too much money is being spent on idle threats.

GOD BLESS YOU

~Mike~

http://www.countryvalues65.com

Embassies staying put in North Korea despite tension

North Koreans attend a rally against the U.S. and South Korea in Nampo, North Korea, April 3, 2013, in this picture released by the North's official KCNA news agency in Pyongyang on Wednesday. The Korean characters on the sign read, "Safeguard to the death". REUTERS/KCNA

North Korea's leader Kim Jong-un holds up a pistol as he supervises pistol and automatic file firing drills at the second battalion under North Korea People's Army (KPA), in this still image taken from video footage released on April 5, 2013, by the North's state-run television KRT. REUTERS/KRT via Reuters Tv

By Jane Chung

SEOUL (Reuters) - Staff at embassies in North Korea appeared to be remaining in place on Saturday despite an appeal by authorities in Pyongyang for diplomats to consider leaving because of heightened tension after weeks of bellicose exchanges.

North Korean authorities told diplomatic missions they could not guarantee their safety from next Wednesday - after declaring that conflict was inevitable amid joint U.S.-South Korean military exercises due to last until the end of the month.

Whatever the atmosphere in Pyongyang, the rain-soaked South Korean capital, Seoul, was calm. Traffic moved normally through the city center, busy with Saturday shoppers.

South Korea's Yonhap news agency quoted a government official as saying diplomats were disregarding the suggestion they might leave the country.

"We don't believe there's any foreign mission about to leave Pyongyang," the unidentified official was quoted as saying. "Most foreign governments view the North Korean message as a way of ratcheting up tension on the Korean peninsula."

North Korea has been angry since new U.N. sanctions were imposed following its third nuclear weapons test in February. Its rage has apparently been compounded by joint U.S.-South Korean military exercises that began on March 1.

China's Xinhua news agency on Friday had quoted the North's Foreign Ministry as saying the issue was no longer whether but when a war would break out.

Most countries saw the appeal to the missions as little more than strident rhetoric after weeks of threatening to launch a nuclear strike on the United States and declarations of war against the South.

But Russia said it was "seriously studying" the request.

A South Korean government official expressed bewilderment.

"It's hard to define what is its real intention," said the official, who asked not to be identified. "But it might have intensified these threats to strengthen the regime internally or to respond to the international community."

The United Nations said its humanitarian workers remained active across North Korea. Secretary General Ban Ki-Moon, however, remained "deeply concerned" about tensions, heightened since the imposition of U.N. sanctions against the North for its third nuclear arms test in February.

Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi repeated Beijing's calls for dialogue to resolve the tensions in a phone call with Ban.

"We oppose provocative words and actions from any party in the region and do not allow troublemaking on China's doorstep," a statement on the ministry's website said, citing Wang.

The appeal to diplomats followed news reports in the South that North Korea, under its 30-year-old leader Kim Jong-un, had moved two medium-range missiles to a location on its east coast. That prompted the White House to say that Washington would "not be surprised" if the North staged another missile test.

Kim Jong-un is the third member of his dynasty to rule North Korea. He took over in December 2011 after the death of his father, Kim Jong-il, who staged confrontations with South Korea and the United States throughout his 17-year rule.

North Korea has always condemned the exercises held by U.S. forces and their South Korean allies. But its comments have been especially vitriolic this year as the United States dispatched B-2 bombers from its home bases to stage mock runs.

"MADCAP NUCLEAR WAR"

North Korea's government daily newspaper said tension remained high because the United States was "waging madcap nuclear war maneuvers".

"This is aimed at igniting a nuclear war against it through a pre-emptive strike," the Minju Joson said in a commentary. "The prevailing situation proves that a new war, a nuclear war, is imminent on the peninsula."

A television documentary broadcast on Friday quoted North Korean leader Kim as saying, during a provincial tour last month, that the country needed to "absolutely guarantee the quality of our artillery and shells to ensure a rapid pre-emptive attack on our enemies".

But some commentators examining the outcome of meetings in Pyongyang last week - of the ruling Workers' Party and of the rubber-stamp legislature - concluded that Kim and his leadership were more concerned with economic than military issues.

Internet site 38 North, which specializes in North Korean affairs, cited the reappointment of reformer Pak Pong Ju as prime minister, the limited titles given to top military and security officials and the naming of a woman to a senior party post.

"These personnel appointments make a great deal of sense in the context of Pyongyang's declarations ... that its economic policy will be modified by introducing systemic reforms while also continuing the development of nuclear weapons," 38 North commentator Michael Madden wrote.

"(They) appear to be important steps in moving key economic development products and production away from the control of the military to the party and government."

North Korea has not shut down one symbol of joint cooperation, the Kaesong industrial zone just inside its border. But last week it prevented South Koreans from entering the complex and about 100 of them who have since remained were due to return home on Saturday, leaving a further 500 there.

The barrage of North Korean threats has created jitters in South Korea's financial markets.

Shares slid on Friday, but analysts said much of the decline was linked to the Bank of Japan's monetary easing policies and one analyst said further major falls were unlikely.

"In a sense, for now the yen is of greater concern than the North Korea risk," said Ko Seunghee, a market analyst at SK Securities. "There is a sense that the KOSPI (index) will not fall sharply or drop below the 1,900 level unless big news about North Korea breaks out."

(Additional reporting by Michael Martina in Beijing, Writing by Ron Popeski; Editing by Robert Birsel and Stephen Powell)

Despite threats, risks temper Korea war tensions

FILE - In this March 26, 2013 file photo, a North Korean man walks past propaganda posters in Pyongyang, North Korea, that threaten punishment to the "U.S. imperialists and their allies." As tensions rise on the Korean Peninsula, one thing remains certain: All sides have good reason to avoid an all-out war. The last one, six decades ago, killed an estimated 4 million people. (AP Photo/Kim Kwang Hyon, File)

FILE - In this April 5, 2013 file photo, South Korean army reservists salute while denouncing North Korea for their escalating threat of war, during their Foundation Day ceremony at a gymnasium in Seoul, South Korea. As tensions rise on the Korean Peninsula, one thing remains certain: All sides have good reason to avoid an all-out war. The last one, six decades ago, killed an estimated 4 million people. (AP Photo/Ahn Young-joon, File)

TOKYO (AP) — As tensions rise on the Korean Peninsula, one thing remains certain: All sides have good reason to avoid an all-out war. The last one, six decades ago, killed an estimated 4 million people.

North Korea's leaders know that war would be suicidal. In the long run, they cannot expect to defeat the United States and successfully overrun South Korea. War would be horrific for the other side as well. South Korea could suffer staggering casualties. The U.S. would face a destabilized major ally, possible but unlikely nuclear or chemical weapons attacks on its forward-positioned bases, and dramatically increased tensions with North Korea's neighbor and Korean War ally, China.

Here's a look at the precarious balance of power that has kept the Korean Peninsula so close to conflict since the three-year war ended in 1953, and some of the strategic calculus behind why, despite the shrill rhetoric and seemingly reckless saber-rattling, leaders on both sides of the Demilitarized Zone have carefully avoided going back over the brink.

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THE SEA OF FIRE

Even without nuclear weapons, North Korea has an ace in the hole. Most experts believe its claims to have enough conventional firepower from its artillery units to devastate the greater Seoul area, South Korea's bustling capital of 24 million. Such an attack would cause severe casualties — often estimated in the hundreds of thousands — in a very short period of time.

Many of these artillery batteries are already in place, dug in and very effectively camouflaged, which means that U.S. and South Korean forces cannot count on being able to take them out before they strike. Experts believe about 60 percent of North Korea's military assets are positioned relatively close to the Demilitarized Zone separating the countries.

North Korea's most threatening weapons are its 170 mm Koksan artillery guns, which are 14 meters long and can shoot conventional mortar ammunition 40 kilometers (25 miles). That's not quite enough to reach Seoul, which is 50 kilometers (30 miles) from the DMZ. But if they use rocket-assisted projectiles, the range increases to about 60 kilometers (37 miles). Chemical weapons fired from these guns could cause even greater mayhem.

North Korea experts Victor Cha and David Kang posted on the website of Foreign Policy magazine late last month that the North can fire 500,000 rounds of artillery on Seoul in the first hour of a conflict.

Even so, not everyone believes North Korea could make good on its "sea of fire" threats. Security expert Roger Cavazos, a former U.S. Army officer, wrote in a report for the Nautilus Institute last year that, among other things, North Korea's big guns have a high rate of firing duds, pose more of a threat to Seoul's less populated outer suburbs, and would be vulnerable to counterattack as soon as they start firing and reveal their location.

"North Korea occasionally threatens to "turn Seoul into a Sea of Fire," he wrote. "But can North Korea really do this? ... The short answer is they can't; but they can kill many tens of thousands of people, start a larger war and cause a tremendous amount of damage before ultimately losing their regime."

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FIRST STRIKES, PRE-EMPTIVE STRIKES

This is what both sides say concerns them the most.

North Korea says it is developing nuclear weapons and long-range missiles as a deterrent to keep theUnited States or South Korea from attacking it first. The reasoning is that Washington will not launch a pre-emptive strike if North Korea has a good chance of getting off an immediate — and devastating — response of its own.

Along with its artillery aimed at Seoul and other targets in South Korea, North Korea is developing the capacity to deploy missiles that are mobile, thus easier to move or hide. North Korea already has Rodong missiles that have — on paper at least — a range of about 1,300 kilometers (800 miles), enough to reach several U.S. military bases in Japan. Along with 28,000 troops in South Korea, the U.S. has 50,000 troops based in Japan.

North Korea is not believed to be capable of making a nuclear weapon small enough to fit on a long-range missile capable of hitting the United States. But physicist David Albright, president of the Institute for Science and International Security, believes it may be capable of mounting nuclear warheads on Rodongs. In any case, Pyongyang is continuing to pursue advancements, apparently out of the belief that it needs nuclear-tipped missiles capable of reaching the U.S. to have a credible deterrent.

The United States rejects the North's claim that such a deterrent is necessary, saying it does not intend to launch pre-emptive strikes against North Korea. At the same time, Washington has made it clear that it could.

During ongoing Foal Eagle military maneuvers in South Korea, two U.S. B-2 strategic stealth bombers, flying from their base in Missouri, conducted a mock bombing run on a South Korean range. The B-2 is capable of carrying nuclear weapons, precision bombs that could take out specific targets such as North Korean government buildings, and massive conventional bombs designed to penetrate deep into the ground to destroy North Korean tunnels and dug-in military positions. One big problem, however, is determining where the targets are.

Amid heightened tensions over North Korea's nuclear weapons program in 1994, President Bill Clinton reportedly considered a pre-emptive strike, but decided the risks were too high.

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CHINA'S DILEMMA

Without China, North Korea wouldn't exist. The Chinese fought alongside the North Koreans in the Korean War and have propped up Pyongyang with economic aid ever since.

Beijing has grown frustrated with Pyongyang, especially over its nuclear program. China and the U.S. worked together in drafting a U.N. resolution punishing the North for its Feb. 12 nuclear test.

But China still has valid reasons not to want the regime to suddenly collapse.

War in Korea would likely spark a massive exodus of North Korean civilians along its porous 1,300-kilometer (800-mile) border, which in turn could lead to a humanitarian crisis or unrest that the Chinese government would have to deal with. The fall of North Korea could pave the way for the United States to establish military bases closer to Chinese territory, or the creation of a unified Koreaover which Beijing might have less influence.

China, the world's second-largest economy, also has significant trade with South Korea and the United States. Turmoil on the Korean Peninsula would harm the economies of all three countries.

Patrick Cronin, an Asia expert at the Center for a New American Security and a senior State Department official during the George W. Bush administration, said Beijing is helping set up back-channel negotiations with North Korea to ease the tensions. But he warned that the U.S. isn't likely to win China over as a reliable partner against North Korea beyond the current flare-up.

"There are limits to how far China and the U.S. have coincidental interests with regard to North Korea," he said.