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Luis Miguel Goitizolo

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RE: ARE WE NOW IN THE END TIMES?
1/11/2012 1:06:40 AM
Do Tighter Iran Sanctions Set Up a Collision Course?










These days we’re hearing two sets of concerns about the US and international pressure on Iran over its nuclear program. From one direction, GOP presidential candidates and other ultra-hawks argue for an escalated conflict with Iran. According to them, President Obama isn’t doing enough or is actually coddling Tehran. Not that the candidates really know much about the Administration’s Iran policy, but that’s par for the course and part and parcel of an increasingly bizarro Republican foreign policy aproach.

For some of Obama’s critics, their faith in military action gives them utter confidence that attacking Iran would squelch its nuclear ambitions without the kind of backlash we might regret. (Hmm, where have we heard that before?)

Yet another set of commentators, who are less sanguine about a war with Iran, warn that tightening the screws of economic sanctions — currently being prepared — already puts things on a dangerous course. Prominent voices in this camp are Trita Parsi and Suzanne Maloney, two of the foreign policy community’s top experts on the region and certainly warranting close attention.

Indeed, the questions they raise are central: has the Obama administration put higher priority on the sanctions than on the nuclear program itself, and in the process complicated (if not doomed) the effort to reach a peaceful solution? Here’s now Trita captures the core policy dilemma:

The challenge with multilateral sanctions, however, is that the diplomatic resources required to create concensus around sanctions are so great that once the sanctions threat gains momentum, the commitment of the sanctioning countries to this path tends to become irreversible.

He’s also correct that the moment just prior to sanctions is a time of heightened leverage — also a moment of opportunity, when the target of this international pressure might offer key concessions. And yes, when you hear people downplay eleventh-hour concessions as merely ploys to alleviate pressure, this misses the entire point that the aim of pressure is … to extract concessions.

The substance of concessions matters

Here’s where I have to offer a counterpoint, though. In short, not all concessions are created equal. When you’re doing this statecraft right, the leverage of impending sanctions produces measures that really move the parties toward a solution. But just because it’s foolish to choose sanctions over meaningful concessions doesn’t mean it’s wise to suspend sanctions in exchange for whatever the targeted government offers. With all the effort that goes into building support for sanctions, they should only be traded in a fair bargain.

That goes doubly when you’re bargaining over a deal that had been agreed to earlier on. In Trita’s piece, he recounts the story of October 2009 – June 2010, the months after Iran agreed and then reneged on a plan to transfer most of their enriched uranium out of the country. As UN Security Council countries were preparing for a new sanctions vote, the leaders of Turkey and Brazil undertook a dramatic initiative to mediate and obtained a last-minute agreement that resurrected the uranium transfer. The Obama administration was not impressed, and immediately called the vote in the Council, which passed.

As Trita sees it, the administration refused to take ‘yes’ for an answer. But I can argue that the Iranians were trying to sell us the same horse twice. For one thing, the agreement with Brazil and Turkey didn’t sufficiently account for the uranium that had been enriched in the intervening months. Contrary to Parsi’s analysis, I believe the administration would have welcomed a reasonable compromise. (I look forward to reading Trita’s more detailed account in his new book, A Single Roll of the Dice, which focuses on President Obama’s Iran diplomacy and will be out this month.)

Suzanne Maloney similarly argues that Obama’s sanctions diplomacy is undercutting its intended aim:

[T]he United States cannot hope to bargain with a country whose economy it is trying to disrupt and destroy. As severe sanctions devastate Iran’s economy, Tehran will surely be encouraged to double down on its quest for the ultimate deterrent. So, the White House’s embrace of open-ended pressure means that it has backed itself into a policy of regime change, something Washington has little ability to influence.

Not only is it far beyond America’s control to relpace Iran’s government, it is also at odds with the objective of preventing it from developing a nuclear weapon. The only way Iranian leaders would cooperate in proving Iran’s non-weapon status is if that would make them less, rather than more, vulnerable. After the overblown “axis of evil” rhetoric of President Bush, it’s actually been crucial for President Obama to highlight that nuclear weapons are the real issue, and not the Iranian leadership themselves.

Severe economic pressure = regime-change effort?

Still, is severe international economic pressure tantamount to a regime-change policy? I don’t see the two as equivalent. For me, the main point is that by resisting nuclear transparency, Iran is losing sympathy and becoming isolated. Suzanne emphasizes Iran’s long record of enduring hardship and pressure, but standing completely alone in the world community is easier said than done.

A policy of “open-ended pressure” would indeed be counterproductive. It is just as important for the Obama Administration to highlight that Tehran can get out of the penalty box, as it is to build a strong international coalition to keep up the pressure. Unlike Maloney, I still think the policy can keep these two in proper balance.

Related Stories:

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Luis Miguel Goitizolo

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RE: ARE WE NOW IN THE END TIMES?
1/11/2012 2:25:39 PM
It's Five Minutes To Midnight. Or So Says The Doomsday Clock










Are we really closer to the apocalypse? The board of directors of the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists (BAS) certainly think so. So much so, they moved the symbolic Doomsday Clock ahead one minute closer to midnight today.

“It is five minutes to midnight,” BAS executive director Kennette Benedict announced this afternoon at a press conference in Washington, D.C.

“Two years ago, it appeared that world leaders might address the truly global threats that we face. In many cases, that trend has not continued or been reversed. For that reason, the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists is moving the clock hand one minute closer to midnight, back to its time in 2007,” the BAS noted in its formal statement.

The Doomsday Clock, a potent symbol — and reminder — of the potential for global destruction, was conceived by a group of University of Chicago scientists who helped develop the first atomic weapons in the Manhattan Project. They founded the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists in 1945, and the clock, two years later. The clock is maintained by the BAS board of directors.

“Faced with clear and present dangers of nuclear proliferation and climate change, and the need to find sustainable and safe sources of energy, world leaders are failing to change business as usual. Inaction on key issues including climate change, and rising international tensions motivate the movement of the clock,” Lawrence Krauss, co-chair of the BAS board of sponsors, said.

“Since fossil-fuel burning power plants and infrastructure built in 2012-2020 will produce energy—and emissions—for 40 to 50 years, the actions taken in the next few years will set us on a path that will be impossible to redirect,” added Allison Macfarlane, chair of the BAS science and security board.

The scientists also noted how Republicans seeking the GOP nomination were trying to outdo each other in denying climate science. As the Guardian reported:

Their greatest disappointment, however, was the failure of international leaders to rid the world of nuclear weapons, exemplified by what they called “ambiguity about Iran’s nuclear power program.” Even when Russia and America ratified a new nuclear treaty in 2010, there were still nearly 20,000 nuclear weapons in the world.

They warned that the Fukushima meltdown once more exposed the dangers of nuclear power – not just because of technology but because of management failures.

The silver lining — if there is one — is that the clock’s onward ticking is not irreversible. It has indeed been wound back before. In fact it’s been reset 20 times — both backwards and forwards, since its inception.

The clock’s closest brush with doomsday: 1953 and the start of the nuclear arms race, when the scientists wound the clock up to 11:58 after the US tested its first hydrogen bomb. At the other end of the spectrum, in 1991, reveling in the post-Cold War optimism and the signing of the Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty — or START — the scientists pushed the clock back to seventeen minutes before midnight. The last time the clock was reset was in 2010 when the BAS moved it back from five minutes to six minutes.

“We all had a sense when we moved the clock in 2010 that we might have a breakthrough,” Benedict said. “Today there was a real sense that we really need new thinking and we don’t have new thinking.”

As Krauss commented “the major challenge at the heart of humanity’s survival in the 21st century is how to meet energy needs for economic growth in developing and industrial countries without further damaging the climate, exposing people to loss of health and community, and without risking further spread of nuclear weapons, and in fact setting the stage for global reductions.”

The BAS scientists do say they were heartened by several developments in 201 including the Arab Spring, the Occupy movements and political protest in Russia

Those developments, said Benedict in the Washington Post, “indicated that people are waking up, and want to have a say in their future.”

So what will it take to reverse the ticking clock now?

Related reading:

Climate Change Irreversible by 2017, Warns IEA

Top 5 U.S. Extreme Weather Events of 2011 (SLIDESHOW)

Do Tighter Iran Sanctions Set Up A Collision Course?

Photo credit: thinkstockphotos.com

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Luis Miguel Goitizolo

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RE: ARE WE NOW IN THE END TIMES?
1/12/2012 11:57:28 PM

Still in ruins: Haiti marks two years after quake

By Clarens Renois | AFP

Click image to see more photos

Haitians flocked to churches Thursday to mark the second anniversary of the catastrophic 2010 earthquake that killed a quarter-of-a-million people in the poorest country in the Americas.

The flattened presidential palace and Port-au-Prince's hollowed-out cathedral offered striking symbols of the failure of an international aid effort that never lived up to its promise, despite billions of pledged dollars.

By the ruins of the Cathedral of Our Lady of the Assumption, whose roof and towers collapsed after the 7.0-magnitude quake,Jean Wilbert, a 40-year-old cripple ekes out an existence in a makeshift camp with his mother.

"I've been here for the past two years," Wilbert told AFP, admitting he found it hard emotionally to move on from the disaster. "I cannot detach myself from this place where I lost my two legs," he said.

UN fact sheets highlighted the hundreds of thousands of people relocated from tent cities in 2011 and the 1.1 million children now receiving daily food aid, but the pace of reconstruction has been painfully slow.

That is partly explained by the cataclysmic scale of the January 12, 2010 disaster, which killed, injured or displaced one in six of the Caribbean nation's entire population, razing some 250,000 homes in the capital alone.

But Haiti was also already the economic basket case of the Western Hemisphere, a dysfunctional country often ruled by a corrupt elite while 80 percent of the population lived below the poverty line, most in stinking slums.

More than half-a-million people displaced by the 2010 quake subsist in 800 squalid tent camps around the capital, and the health authorities, propped up by an army of NGOs, are still battling a cholera epidemic that has killed nearly 7,000 people since November 2010.

In this largely Roman Catholic country, places of worship were holding services throughout the day to remember the disaster, throwing open their doors to quake survivors, many still traumatized by the events of that day.

Government officers were shuttered along with schools and businesses.

At 4:53 pm local time (2153 GMT), the moment the earthquake struck, President Michel Martelly was to lay a wreath at the mass grave north of the capital where most of the dead lie entombed, dumped there in lorry-load after lorry-load in the days after the disaster.

UN chief Ban Ki-moon paid tribute to those who died -- including more than 100 UN personnel -- and called on international donors to keep up their "vital support" for the rebuilding two years after the disaster.

"Despite considerable achievements, including in the areas of rubble removal and the resettlement of displaced persons, many Haitians remain in need of international assistance," Ban said.

UN special envoy to Haiti Michaelle Jean said "murderous negligence" had contributed to the vast toll as she pointed to "an absence of laws and regulations to standardize construction works" that led to building collapses.

"It is irresponsible laissez-faire, generalized disorder set up as a system," she said.

Shocked in the immediate aftermath of one of the deadliest disasters of modern times, the international community promised billions of dollars of aid money to "build back better."

Decentralization -- away from the slum-infested, sprawling capital of three million -- was the buzzword in a plan to be implemented under the watchful eye of former US president Bill Clinton.

This grandiose vision now appears to have been a pipe-dream.

Less than half the $4.59 billion pledged has been received and disbursed, and the coffers of the aid agencies are also drying up.

More than 50 percent of the quake rubble has now been cleared, but little has been erected in its place.

Most of the hundreds of thousands of people who fled Port-au-Prince after the quake have since returned to the overcrowded capital, desperate for work and food in a country still lacking another effective pole to attract labor.

Martelly, a former carnival entertainer and pop singer, was sworn in as the new president in May, riding a populist wave and promising to bring the change that the country so badly needs.

But faced with a parliament dominated by his political opponents, it took him five months to even get a prime minister appointed.


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Luis Miguel Goitizolo

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RE: ARE WE NOW IN THE END TIMES?
1/20/2012 10:09:45 PM

"James Madison famously warned that we needed a system that did not depend on the good intentions or motivations of our rulers: 'If men were angels, no government would be necessary.' Since 9/11, we have created the very government the framers [of the U.S. Constitution] feared: a government with sweeping and largely unchecked powers resting on the hope that they will be used wisely."
-- Washington Post article by Prof. Jonathan Turley of George Washington University, 1/13/2012


Dear friends,

The Washington Post has published an amazing article revealing the disturbing and severe erosion of freedom and civil liberties in the U.S. ever since 9/11. Written by Professor Jonathan Turley of George Washington University in the nation's capital, this incisive essay lays bare what so many citizens don't know, an what many don't even want to know. Yet in this case, ignorance is not bliss. Please read and educate yourself, then spread the word to your friends and colleagues. And don't miss the "What you can do" box with great suggestions at the end of the article. Thanks for caring.

With very best wishes,
Fred Burks for PEERS and WantToKnow.info


10 reasons the U.S. is no longer the land of the free

By Jonathan Turley,
Published: January 13, 2012
Original URL: http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/is-the-united-states-still-the-land-of...

Every year, the State Department issues reports on individual rights in other countries, monitoring the passage of restrictive laws and regulations around the world. Iran, for example, has been criticized for denying fair public trials and limiting privacy, while Russia has been taken to task for undermining due process. Other countries have been condemned for the use of secret evidence and torture.

Even as we pass judgment on countries we consider unfree, Americans remain confident that any definition of a free nation must include their own — the land of free. Yet, the laws and practices of the land should shake that confidence. In the decade since Sept. 11, 2001, this country has comprehensively reduced civil liberties in the name of an expanded security state. The most recent example of this wasthe National Defense Authorization Act, signed Dec. 31, which allows for the indefinite detention of citizens. At what point does the reduction of individual rights in our country change how we define ourselves?

While each new national security power Washington has embraced was controversial when enacted, they are often discussed in isolation. But they don’t operate in isolation. They form a mosaic of powers under which our country could be considered, at least in part, authoritarian. Americans often proclaim our nation as a symbol of freedom to the world while dismissing nations such as Cuba and China as categorically unfree. Yet, objectively, we may be only half right. Those countries do lack basic individual rights such as due process, placing them outside any reasonable definition of “free,” but the United States now has much more in common with such regimes than anyone may like to admit.

These countries also have constitutions that purport to guarantee freedoms and rights. But their governments have broad discretion in denying those rights and few real avenues for challenges by citizens — precisely the problem with the new laws in this country.

The list of powers acquired by the U.S. government since 9/11 puts us in rather troubling company.

1. Assassination of U.S. citizens

President Obama has claimed, as President George W. Bush did before him, theright to order the killing of any citizen considered a terrorist or an abettor of terrorism. Last year, he approved the killing of U.S. citizen Anwar al-Awlaqi and another citizen under this claimed inherent authority. Last month, administration officials affirmed that power, stating that the president can order the assassination of any citizen whom he considers allied with terrorists. (Nations such as Nigeria, Iran and Syria have been routinely criticized for extrajudicial killings of enemies of the state.)

2. Indefinite detention

Under the law signed last month, terrorism suspects are to be held by the military; the president also has the authority to indefinitely detain citizens accused of terrorism. While the administration claims that this provision only codified existing law, experts widely contest this view, and the administration has opposed efforts to challenge such authority in federal courts. The government continues to claim the right to strip citizens of legal protections based on its sole discretion. (China recently codified a more limited detention law for its citizens, while countries such as Cambodia have been singled out by the United States for “prolonged detention.”)

3. Arbitrary justice

The president now decides whether a person will receive a trial in the federal courts or in a military tribunal, a system that has been ridiculed around the world for lacking basic due process protections. Bush claimed this authority in 2001, and Obama has continued the practice. (Egypt and China have been denounced for maintaining separate military justice systems for selected defendants, including civilians.)

4. Warrantless searches

The president may now order warrantless surveillance, including a new capability to force companies and organizations to turn over information on citizens’ finances, communications and associations. Bush acquired this sweeping power under the Patriot Act in 2001, and in 2011, Obama extended the power, including searches of everything from business documents to library records. The government can use“national security letters” to demand, without probable cause, that organizations turn over information on citizens — and order them not to reveal the disclosure to the affected party. (Saudi Arabia and Pakistan operate under laws that allow the government to engage in widespread discretionary surveillance.)

5. Secret evidence

The government now routinely uses secret evidence to detain individuals and employs secret evidence in federal and military courts. It also forces the dismissal of cases against the United States by simply filing declarations that the cases would make the government reveal classified information that would harm national security — a claim made in a variety of privacy lawsuits and largely accepted by federal judges without question. Even legal opinions, cited as the basis for the government’s actions under the Bush and Obama administrations, have been classified. This allows the government to claim secret legal arguments to support secret proceedings using secret evidence. In addition, some cases never make it to court at all. The federal courts routinely deny constitutional challenges to policies and programs under a narrow definition of standing to bring a case.

6. War crimes

The world clamored for prosecutions of those responsible for waterboarding terrorism suspects during the Bush administration, but the Obama administration said in 2009that it would not allow CIA employees to be investigated or prosecuted for such actions. This gutted not just treaty obligations but the Nuremberg principles of international law. When courts in countries such as Spain moved to investigate Bush officials for war crimes, the Obama administration reportedly urged foreign officials not to allow such cases to proceed, despite the fact that the United States has long claimed the same authority with regard to alleged war criminals in other countries. (Various nations have resisted investigations of officials accused of war crimes and torture. Some, such as Serbia and Chile, eventually relented to comply with international law; countries that have denied independent investigations include Iran, Syria and China.)

7. Secret court

The government has increased its use of the secret Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Court, which has expanded its secret warrants to include individuals deemed to be aiding or abetting hostile foreign governments or organizations. In 2011, Obama renewed these powers, including allowing secret searches of individuals who are not part of an identifiable terrorist group. The administration has asserted the right to ignore congressional limits on such surveillance. (Pakistan places national security surveillance under the unchecked powers of the military or intelligence services.)

8. Immunity from judicial review

Like the Bush administration, the Obama administration has successfully pushed for immunity for companies that assist in warrantless surveillance of citizens, blocking the ability of citizens to challenge the violation of privacy. (Similarly, China has maintained sweeping immunity claims both inside and outside the country and routinely blocks lawsuits against private companies.)

9. Continual monitoring of citizens

The Obama administration has successfully defended its claim that it can use GPS devices to monitor every move of targeted citizens without securing any court order or review. (Saudi Arabia has installed massive public surveillance systems, while Cuba is notorious for active monitoring of selected citizens.)

10. Extraordinary renditions

The government now has the ability to transfer both citizens and noncitizens to another country under a system known as extraordinary rendition, which has been denounced as using other countries, such as Syria, Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Pakistan, to torture suspects. The Obama administration says it is not continuing the abuses of this practice under Bush, but it insists on the unfettered right to order such transfers — including the possible transfer of U.S. citizens.

Final Comments: Land of the Free?

These new laws have come with an infusion of money into an expanded security system on the state and federal levels, including more public surveillance cameras, tens of thousands of security personnel and a massive expansion of a terrorist-chasing bureaucracy.

Some politicians shrug and say these increased powers are merely a response to the times we live in. Thus, Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) could declare in an interview last spring without objection that “free speech is a great idea, but we’re in a war.” Of course, terrorism will never “surrender” and end this particular “war.”

Other politicians rationalize that, while such powers may exist, it really comes down to how they are used. This is a common response by liberals who cannot bring themselves to denounce Obama as they did Bush. Sen. Carl Levin (D-Mich.), for instance, has insisted that Congress is not making any decision on indefinite detention: “That is a decision which we leave where it belongs — in the executive branch.”

And in a signing statement with the defense authorization bill, Obama said he does not intend to use the latest power to indefinitely imprison citizens. Yet, he still accepted the power as a sort of regretful autocrat.

An authoritarian nation is defined not just by the use of authoritarian powers, but by the ability to use them. If a president can take away your freedom or your life on his own authority, all rights become little more than a discretionary grant subject to executive will.

The framers lived under autocratic rule and understood this danger better than we do. James Madison famously warned that we needed a system that did not depend on the good intentions or motivations of our rulers: “If men were angels, no government would be necessary.”

Benjamin Franklin was more direct. In 1787, a Mrs. Powel confronted Franklin after the signing of the Constitution and asked, “Well, Doctor, what have we got — a republic or a monarchy?” His response was a bit chilling: “A republic, Madam, if you can keep it.”

Since 9/11, we have created the very government the framers feared: a government with sweeping and largely unchecked powers resting on the hope that they will be used wisely.

The indefinite-detention provision in the defense authorization bill seemed to many civil libertarians like a betrayal by Obama. While the president had promised to veto the law over that provision, Levin, a sponsor of the bill, disclosed on the Senate floor that it was in fact the White House that approved the removal of any exception for citizens from indefinite detention.

Dishonesty from politicians is nothing new for Americans. The real question is whether we are lying to ourselves when we call this country the land of the free.


Jonathan Turley
is the Shapiro professor of public interest law at George Washington University.

Note: You can find the original article on the Washington Post website at this link.

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  • Inform your media and political representatives of this important information on the erosion of freedom. To contact those close to you, click here.

  • For summaries of and links to many other major media articles laying bare continual erosion of civil liberties both in the U.S. and worldwide, click here.

  • For lots more reliable information and a call to work together for positive change,click here.

  • For an inspiring essay on how we can work together to build a brighter future click here.

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  • Spread this news to your friends and colleagues, and bookmark this article on key news websites using the "Share This" icon on this page, so that we can fill the role at which the major media is sadly failing. Together, we can make a difference.

"Choose a job you love and you will not have to work a day in your life" (Confucius)

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Luis Miguel Goitizolo

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RE: ARE WE NOW IN THE END TIMES?
1/22/2012 12:30:45 AM

Chinese Report Warns of Global Warming Threat











Global warming will cause China to suffer from dire food and drinking water shortages, with water supply imbalances, severe weather events and rising temperatures, according to a report compiled by Chinese scientists under government supervision. The report projects that the cost of growing food will increase, and that grain production in the country of 1.4 billion will decline between 5 and 20 percent by mid-century. Despite the serious potential consequences of unchecked global warming, the report predicts that China’s greenhouse gas emissions will only begin to decline around 2030, with significant declines not coming until 2050 or so.

Government Sets Sights on Carbon Caps

China has committed to significant reductions in carbon intensity — a measure of carbon emissions by unit of GDP — aiming to decrease carbon intensity by 40-45 percent by 2020 from 2005 levels. This week the Chinese government recently directed five provinces and two cities to declare and attain overall emissions caps. In addition to setting hard limits, the seven cities and provinces – Beijing, Tianjin, Shanghai, Chongqing, Guangdong, Hubei and Shenzhen – will establish a carbon rights exchange, in effect a carbon trading scheme, similar to the European Emissions Trading Scheme. The plan also calls for the building of low-carbon development zones and residential communities.

No National Target for the U.S.

China is the the world’s largest overall emitter of greenhouse gases, followed by the U.S., which has a population one-quarter the size of China’s.The U.S. has no national carbon reduction goals, though legislation in California, the Global Warming Solutions Act (AB 32), requires the state to reduce carbon emissions to 1990 levels (427 million metric tons of carbon dioxide equivalent ) by 2020.

Beijing Government Bows to Public Pressure on Dirty Air Numbers

In another sign of changing attitudes, the Beijing government has begun posting more accurate measurements of air quality in the capital, following public pressure and a social media effort spearheaded by the U.S. Embassy. For months citizens have been complaining about the disparity between the official air quality measurements and the readings by meters placed by the US Embassy and broadcast via a Twitter account, @BeijingAir (currently with over 17,000 followers.) The government readings will be adjusted to include smaller particles that were not being counted. On some days, the old government measurements touted healthy air quality even while the city was blanketed in smog.

Related Stories:

Record Jump in CO2 Brings New Urgency to Climate Talks

China’s Solutions to its Many Environmental Problems

What Can Be Accomplished in US-China Summit

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Photo: Haze over eastern China. NASA/GSFC, MODIS Rapid Response, public domain



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