The United States will pull out of a nuclear arms control treaty with Russia, the Trump administration announced Friday, ending a cornerstone Cold War agreement on grounds that Russian violations render it moot.
The demise of the 1987 Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) treaty raises fears of a new nuclear arms race, although U.S. officials discount the risk.
Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said the United States is suspending participation in the agreement, starting a six-month countdown to a final U.S. withdrawal. That leaves a slim chance that Russia could end missile programs widely seen as a violation, salvaging the treaty. The United States accuses Moscow of violating the agreement since 2014.
“For years Russia has violated the terms of the Intermediate Range Nuclear Forces Treaty without remorse,” Pompeo said, adding that the United States has continued to meet its obligations while seeking to get Moscow to come into compliance.
“When an agreement is so brazenly disregarded and our security is so threatened, we must respond,” he added.
The United States did not announce plans for any new weapons or shifts in missile deployments, but Trump administration officials did not rule it out down the road.
The United States' plan to scrap this Cold War treaty raises fears of another nuclear arms buildup. (William Neff /The Washington Post)
[Trump administration gives Russia an ultimatum on Cold War-era arms treaty]
In a statement, President Trump said the onus is on Russia.
“The United States has fully adhered to the INF Treaty for more than 30 years, but we will not remain constrained by its terms while Russia misrepresents its actions,” Trump said. “We cannot be the only country in the world unilaterally bound by this treaty, or any other. We will move forward with developing our own military response options and will work with NATO and our other allies and partners to deny Russia any military advantage from its unlawful conduct.”
The U.S. decision is another sour note between Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin, with whom Trump has sought closer ties. Trump canceled a planned Dec. 1 meeting with Putin in protest of what the White House called Russian naval aggression against Ukraine.
Putin has sought a way out of the INF since at least 2007, a U.S. official told reporters. But Putin is likely to continue seeking new arms-control talks with Washington, in part because negotiating over nuclear arsenals puts Moscow on near-equal diplomatic footing with the much richer and better-armed Washington, analysts say.
[What the INF Treaty means for the U.S. and Europe]
The New START treaty, which limits Russian and American deployed strategic nuclear warheads, expires in two years. Russian diplomats have said they’re preparing for a scenario in which the New START treaty won’t be renewed and blame the United States for not seriously engaging in talks on how to proceed.
“I truly fear that the New START Treaty may have the same fate as the INF Treaty,” Deputy Foreign Minister Sergey Ryabkov said on Russian television before Pompeo’s announcement. “It may just expire on February 5, 2021 and not be prolonged.”
Earlier Friday, the Kremlin said it expected official notification of the U.S. withdrawal. There was no immediate Kremlin comment after Pompeo’s announcement.
Reaction to the widely expected move was muted among lawmakers in Moscow, underscoring that Russia’s eventual response to the treaty’s demise will depend in part on how aggressively the United States shifts its military posture.
“I don’t think we need to take tough countermeasures right now,” Andrey Krasov, deputy head of the defense committee in Russia’s lower house of parliament, told the Interfax news agency after Pompeo’s announcement. “We have a huge military potential anyway that can counter any threat.”
Russia has said it is not violating the treaty and that its 9M729 missile has a range of less than 500 kilometers (311 miles). NATO declared in December that the missile system does violate the INF and poses a risk to Europe.
Russia has warned that it would respond in kind if the United States were to deploy new intermediate-range missiles, potentially leading to a new nuclear buildup in Europe reminiscent of the Cold War.
Speaking at the State Department, Pompeo said the United States would continue diplomatic efforts.
“We’ll continue to have conversations with them. We hope they’ll come back into compliance,” Pompeo said. “We’ve had conversations at every level, at senior levels, at technical levels. We’ve had conversations about the nature of these systems. There’s no mistaking that the Russians have chosen not to comply with this treaty.”
The Trump administration has signaled for months that it wants to end the agreement covering ground-based, nuclear-tipped cruise missiles with ranges between 500 and 5,500 kilometers.
Arms control specialists said that without the treaty, the United States may move to position missile systems in Europe or Asia, while Russia could use the opportunity to base missile systems elsewhere.
In Asia, the United States could deploy conventional midrange missiles near Chinese ships and militarized artificial islands during a conflict to defend parts of the East China Sea or South China Sea.
The rationale for deploying conventional midrange missiles in Europe theoretically would be to blunt any Russian attempt to prevent the U.S. military from resupplying European allies in a future conflict.
Both such moves would risk a response from Beijing and Moscow, risking a conventional arms race with missiles in Asia and Europe that has already shown signs of emerging with the development of hypersonic weapons that can move far faster than the speed of sound.
The senior Trump administration official said that the United States is so far looking only at nonnuclear missiles in terms of possible deployments and that any move to deploy them would likely be years away.
In Brussels, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg offered alliance backing for the U.S. move, saying that it is Russia’s responsibility to start complying with the treaty again.
“Russia is in material breach of the #INFTreaty & must use next 6 months to return to full & verifiable compliance or bear sole responsibility for its demise. #NATO fully supports the US suspension & notification of withdrawal from the Treaty,” Stoltenberg wrote on Twitter.
Many NATO diplomats have greeted the U.S. moves with resignation, saying they would prefer to preserve the arms control treaty but that they are now focused on limiting a new arms race.
“Allies regret that Russia, as part of its broader pattern of behaviour, continues to deny its INF Treaty violation, refuses to provide any credible response, and has taken no demonstrable steps toward returning to full and verifiable compliance,” NATO’s North America Council said in a statement Friday.
Senior Trump administration officials tried to emphasize that Washington is on the same page as its European allies, even though the White House faced criticism for Trump’s decision to announce the U.S. withdrawal on the fly last fall, before European allies had formally agreed that Washington should pull out of the treaty.
The death of the INF Treaty raises questions about the future of other arms control agreements, including New START, which expires in February 2021.
If the White House and the Kremlin don’t agree to extend New START, the decision would turn the clock back to an era where Washington and Moscow possess nuclear arms with practically no agreed restrictions and risk the return of a full Cold War-style arms race.
A senior administration official raised questions on Friday about whether the United States could trust Russia enough to extend New START, given the violations of the INF Treaty.
“It’s important that we feel we can enter into agreements with countries and feel like they adhere to them and fully implement them,” the official said.
The Trump administration is in the middle of a policy process to determine whether the United States should extend New START. Because the reduction targets have already been met, an extension would only mean keeping the limits in place and continuing the inspections that are stipulated by the treaty.
The treaty includes an automatic extension clause should the leaders of both nations agree, eliminating the need for Washington and Moscow to engage in a lengthy new round of negotiations.
Lawmakers broke along party lines over the withdrawal announcement, although both parties called the pact flawed.
Republicans had effectively asked for the move in last year’s defense authorization, stating that the United States would be “legally entitled to suspend the operation of the INF Treaty in whole or in part for so long as the Russian Federation continues to be in material breach of the INF Treaty.”
“I completely support the Trump Administration’s decision to withdraw from the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty due to Russian noncompliance,” Sen. Lindsey O. Graham (R-S.C.) said in a statement. “Russia has been in violation of the treaty for years and the Obama Administration refused to do anything about it. It’s a bad deal for America when Russia cheats and the United States complies.”
Democrats, however, warned that ripping up the treaty was the wrong way to steer Russia — or China — back into a treaty order more responsive to modern weapons and threats.
“The Trump Administration is risking an arms race and undermining international security and stability,” House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) said in a statement. “Russia’s brazen noncompliance with this treaty is deeply concerning, but discarding a key pillar of our nonproliferation security framework creates unacceptable risks. The Administration should exhaust every diplomatic effort and work closely with NATO allies over the next six months to avoid thrusting the United States into a dangerous arms competition.”
The stark partisan divisions in Congress are a sign of how the GOP has shifted on such issues. Just a few months ago, Sen. Bob Corker (R-Tenn.), then chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, broke loudly with Trump over his announced intention to withdraw from the INF, warning that ripping up the arms control treaties that helped settle Cold War contests would be a “huge mistake.”
On Friday, it was only Senate Foreign Relations Committee ranking member Sen. Robert Menendez (D-N.J.) who sounded the same warning bells.
“The Trump Administration lacks a coherent strategy to address the threat new Russian cruise missiles pose to the interests of the United States and those of our allies,” Menendez said in a statement, calling withdrawal from the treaty “yet another geostrategic gift to Vladimir Putin.”
“With the renewal of the New START agreement coming up next year, I strongly urge the administration try a new approach and develop a coherent strategy to stabilize our arms control regime,” he added.
Sen. James E. Risch (R-Idaho), the chairman of the Foreign Relations panel, wholly disagreed.
“Russian actions represent a material breach of the treaty, and it is abundantly clear: the United States is the only country limited by the INF Treaty,” he said in a statement. “The time has come to set the treaty aside and develop alternative avenues toward the security the treaty once provided.”
Trump has also pulled the United States out of the international nuclear deal with Iran and announced a U.S. exit from the Paris climate accords. Neither was a full treaty confirmed by the Senate, as the INF Treaty was.
“Yes another withdrawal from an accord by the Trump administration,” Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammed Javad Zarif wrote on Twitter. “Seems this clique is allergic to anything w/ US signature on it. Message: Any deal with US govt is not worth the ink; even treaties ratified by Congress.”
The push to pull out of the INF Treaty by the Trump administration coincided with the arrival of John Bolton as White House national security adviser. Bolton oversaw the Bush administration’s withdrawal from the Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty with Russia in 2002, paving the way for the erection of American missile defense systems that Russia long decried.
The INF Treaty has long been a bugbear for the former U.N. ambassador, who is a skeptic of international agreements and organizations he sees as constraining American power.
In a 2011 article in the Wall Street Journal, Bolton and co-author Paula DeSutter contended that the INF had outlived its usefulness and cited a quote from the late French President Charles de Gaulle: “Treaties, you see, are like girls and roses: They last while they last.”
Anton Troianovsky in Moscow, Michael Birnbaum in Brussels and Karoun Demirjian in Washington contributed to this report.