Palestinian war crimes case against Israel would face many obstacles

JERUSALEM - Days after winning upgraded status at the United Nations, the Palestinians are threatening to join the world's first permanent war crimes court and pursue charges against the Israelis.

Although the Palestinians say that any decision is still a long ways off, the mere threat has unnervedIsrael. But pressing a case may not be so simple and could potentially leave the Palestinians themselves vulnerable to prosecution.

Since winning recognition as a nonmember observer state in the United Nations General Assembly last week, the Palestinians believe they now qualify for membership in the International Criminal Court.

In opposing the Palestinian bid at the U.N., Israel repeatedly cited Palestinian threats to turn to the ICCto prosecute Israeli officials for a variety of alleged crimes, ranging from actions by the Israeli military to Israel's construction of Jewish settlements on occupied land.

While Israel does not recognize the court's jurisdiction and believes its own actions do not violateinternational law, officials are concerned legal action that could embarrass Israel, make it difficult for Israeli officials to travel overseas or portray the country as a pariah state. A war crimes conviction can include fines and maximum penalties of life in prison.

With this in mind, a senior Palestinian official, Nabil Shaath, spoke of possible ICC action over Israel's tough response to the U.N. bid. Israel immediately cut off $100 million in tax transfers to the Palestinians and announced plans to build thousands of new homes in West Bank settlements.

"By continuing these war crimes of settlement activities on our lands and stealing our money, Israel is pushing and forcing us to go to the ICC," Shaath said late Monday.

On the surface, the Palestinians appear to have a strong case against Israeli settlements in the West Bank and east Jerusalem. The Palestinians claim the two areas, as well as the Gaza Strip, for their future state.

The U.N. resolution last week recognized a Palestinian state in all three territories, captured by Israel in the 1967 war. Israel withdrew from Gaza in 2005 but continues to control access in and out of the area.

The U.N. resolution appeared to repudiate the Israeli position that the West Bank and east Jerusalem are "disputed" territories and effectively condemned Israeli settlements in the areas, which are now home to some 500,000 Israelis. Settlements are at the heart of the current four-year deadlock in peace efforts, with the Palestinians refusing to negotiate while Israel continues to build more settler homes.

The ICC's founding charter describes "the transfer, directly or indirectly, by the Occupying Power of parts of its own civilian population into the territory it occupies" as a war crime.

The Palestinian position on settlements has widespread international support. The international community, even Israel's closest ally, the U.S., has broadly condemned the latest planned settlement construction.

"Under our very clear understanding of international law, the settlements are illegal and have always been illegal, and that will remain so," Andrew Standley, the European Union's ambassador to Israel, told reporters Tuesday.

Even so, turning this international opposition into legal action against Israel will be no small task. The Palestinians would face a number of legal and political obstacles in pressing forward.

For starters, it remains unclear whether the Palestinians qualify for membership in the court, because it is open only to states.

Last April, the court's chief prosecutor at the time, Luis Moreno-Ocampo, turned down a request by the Palestinians to join the court. But he subsequently said in an AP interview that they would qualify for membership if they gained nonmember state status at the U.N.

So far, the court has said only that it "takes note" of last week's U.N. decision and will consider its "legal implications." Moreno-Ocampo is no longer at the court.

Goran Sluiter, professor of international law at Amsterdam University, said that with their newfound status, it seems likely the Palestinians could join the ICC. But it is unclear whether the court would agree to investigate their complaints.

He said the court would look at key issues, including the gravity of the alleged crimes and whether Israel's own judicial system is capable of judging the case, before deciding whether to prosecute. If they were to launch a probe, prosecutors also would look at alleged crimes by Palestinians.

"I think there is still a very, very, very, long way to go," Sluitter said. In the conflict between the Palestinians and Israel, "there's a broad range of conduct that could be a basis for further investigations because they would qualify as war crimes."

Robbie Sabel, a former legal adviser to the Israeli Foreign Ministry, said he thinks the Palestinians "will seriously hesitate" taking action against Israel.

He said Israel, for instance, could try to hold the Palestinian Authority responsible for rocket attacks out of the Hamas-ruled Gaza Strip aimed at Israeli cities. Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas, who lost control of Gaza to Hamas five years ago, claims to represent both territories on the international stage.

"Any Hamas person who launches a rocket could then be subject to ICC ruling. They have to expose their own people first," said Sabel, who is now a law professor at the Hebrew University.

A U.N. report into heavy fighting between Israel and Hamas four years ago found evidence of war crimes by both sides.

Israeli Foreign Ministry spokesman Yigal Palmor said Israel would fight any attempt by the Palestinians to use the ICC as a "politicized instrument" against Israel.

"We are not worried about Israel's case because we have a good solid case and we work strictly according to international law," he said.

The Palestinians would also face heavy political pressure not to go to court. The U.S. Senate, for instance, is debating legislation that would cut off millions of dollars in assistance to the Palestinians and close their diplomatic offices in Washington if they file charges against Israel. The legislation is expected to be voted on in the coming days.

A senior Palestinian official said the Palestinians are in "no hurry" to rush to the ICC, in part because they are pleased with the heavy international condemnations of Israel's latest settlement plans but also because of fears of antagonizing the U.S.

The official, speaking on condition of anonymity because he was discussing internal high-level deliberations, said the Palestinians are now focused on repairing ties with the U.S., which sided with Israel in opposing last week's U.N. resolution. Yet he noted that the Palestinians have refused calls to promise not to go to the ICC.

Late Tuesday, a meeting of the Palestinian leadership in the West Bank said they would ask the U.N. Security Council to pass a decision calling on Israel to halt "all forms of settlement activity." In a statement, the Palestinians condemned the latest planned construction as "war crimes," but, reflecting their current thinking, made no mention of going to the ICC.

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Could the Assad regime be crumbling in Syria?

Syria's regime is showing signs that it is weakening, according to reports from newspapers in the United Kingdom and Israel.

Syrian President Bashar Assad has sought asylum for himself, his family, and associates in Latin America if his regime falls and he is forced to flee Damascus, reported Haaretz, an Israeli daily paper.

The report indicates that nation's deputy foreign minister met with leaders in Cuba, Ecuador, and Venezuela, and brought personal letters from Assad to local leaders.

Meanwhile, The Guardian reported Tuesday that former Syrian foreign ministry spokesman, Jihad Makdissi, is traveling to the United States after apparently defecting. Makdissi, the newspaper notes, is the most senior Christian official who hasn't abandoned Assad's regime. He arrived Monday in London, where he previously served in the Syrian embassy.

Syrian civil war spills into Lebanon

TRIPOLI, Lebanon (AP) — Gunmen loyal to opposite sides in neighboring Syria's civil war battled on Wednesday in the streets of anorthern Lebanese city where two days of fighting killed at least five people and wounded 45, officials said.

The Lebanese army fanned out in the city of Tripoli to calm the fighting, with soldiers patrolling the streets in armored personnel carriers and manning checkpoints. Authorities closed major roads because of sniper fire.

The fighting comes at a time of deep uncertainty in Syria, with rebels closing in on President Bashar Assad's seat of power in Damascus.

U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon on Wednesday urged Syria's regime against using its stockpile of chemical weapons, warning of "huge consequences" if Assad resorts to such weapons of mass destruction.

"I again urge in the strongest possible terms that they must not consider using this kind of deadly weapons of mass destruction," Ban told The Associated Press, speaking on the sidelines of a climate conference in Qatar.

Syria has been careful not to confirm that it has chemical weapons, but the regime insists it would never use them against the Syrian people.

Ban also suggested that he would not favor an asylum deal for the Syrian leader as a way to end the country's civil war and cautioned that the United Nations doesn't allow anyone "impunity." Assad has vowed to "live and die" in Syria, but as the violence grinds on there is speculation that he might seek asylum.

The Syria conflict has spilled over into Turkey, Israel and Jordan over the past 20 months, but Lebanon is particularly vulnerable to getting sucked in. The countries share a complex web of political and sectarian ties and rivalries that are easily enflamed. Lebanon, a country plagued by decades of strife, has been on edge since the uprising in Syria began, and deadly clashes between pro- and anti-Assad Lebanese groups have erupted on several occasions.

Tensions in Tripoli have been mounting since last week, when reports emerged that some 17 Lebanese Sunni fighters were killed inside Syria, apparently after they joined the rebellion against Assad. The bodies of some of the men were later shown in Syrian state TV.

On Wednesday, Lebanese Foreign Minister Adnan Mansour was informed by Syrian Ambassador Ali Abdul Karim Ali that Syria had agreed to repatriate the men's bodies. Lebanon's National News Agency said the countries would soon discuss how to hand over the bodies.

Anti-Syrian politicians in Lebanon have criticized the Hezbollah-led government for what they call a lack of effort to get the bodies back. Lebanon's Hezbollah supports Assad.

Lebanese security officials said at least five people have been killed and 45 wounded in the Tripoli fighting since Tuesday. The officials spoke on condition of anonymity because they are not authorized to talk to the media.

The fighting in Tripoli pits the Sunni neighborhood of Bab Tabbaneh, which supports Syria's rebels, against the adjacent Alawite neighborhood of Jabal Mohsen, which supports Assad.

Syrian rebels are predominantly Sunni whereas Assad and his inner circle are dominated by Alawites, an offshoot of Shiite Islam.

Syria's uprising began with peaceful protests in March 2011 and later escalated into a civil war that the opposition says has killed more than 40,000 people.

Fighting continued around Syria on Wednesday, with rebels clashing with government trips around the capital, Damascus, and elsewhere.

In the north, a Syrian jet bombed the rebel-held town of Tal Abyad, near the Turkish border, and rebels responded with anti-aircraft fire, Turkey's state-run Anadolu agency said. At least two people injured in the attacks were brought to the Turkish border town of Akcakale for treatment.

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Official: Iran has evidence it captured US drone

TEHRAN, Iran (AP) — Iran has material evidence to prove that it has captured an American unmanned aircraft, a prominent lawmaker in Tehran said Wednesday, rejecting U.S. Navy statementsthat none of its drones in the region was missing.

Tehran on Tuesday claimed to have captured a Boeing-designed ScanEagle drone after it entered Iranian airspace over the Persian Gulf, and even showed an image of the purportedly downed aircraft on state TV. The Islamic Republic trumpeted its possession of an allegedly intact U.S. drone as another prize in its growing showdown with Washington over surveillance of Iran's disputed nuclear program.

"We have material evidence to prove that the drone we captured belongs to the U.S.," Ismael Kowsari, the head of the Iranian parliament's defense committee, told The Associated Press. "The unmanned aircraft took off from a warship. The Americans will have no choice but to confirm that one of their drones is missing."

Kowsari did not say what proof the Islamic Republic has to back up his claims, but said Tehran will release more information on the aircraft soon.

The U.S. has White House press secretary Jay Carney said on Tuesday that "we have no evidence that the Iranian claims are true." Cmdr. Jason Salata, a spokesman for the U.S. Navy's Bahrain-based 5th Fleet, also said all U.S. drones in the region are "fully accounted for."

The conflicting accounts could put pressure on both sides for more details on U.S. reconnaissance and Iranian counter-measures in the countries' growing showdown over surveillance.

There is even the possibility the drone is authentic but was plucked from the sea after a past crash and unveiled for maximum effect amid escalating tensions over U.S. reconnaissance missions — including a Predator drone coming under fire from Iranian warplanes last month.

Kowsari dismissed suggestions that the drone could have belonged to other nations in the Gulf, including the United Arab Emirates, that have ScanEagle drones in service.

"The UAE doesn't dare to engage in such activities against us. We have sufficient evidence to prove it is American. The U.S. commanders may need to recount their drones," he said. "The capture of the drone demonstrates Iran's capability of bringing down such aircraft intact."

He accused the U.S. of stepping up its espionage activities in recent months against Iran as part of intensified Western efforts to force Tehran to abandon its uranium enrichment program, a key aspect of its disputed nuclear program. The U.S. its allies accuse Iran of trying to develop atomic weapons, a charge Tehran denies.

"The Americans have increased their spying activities including monitoring Iran's nuclear power plant in Bushehr, Bandar Abbas port and oil facilities and export terminals," he said.

Iran believes the U.S. and its allies are seeking data about the flow of goods into Iran and the status of its oil exports after the 27-nation European Union imposed a total oil embargo against Iran July 1.

The International Energy Agency says Iran's oil exports plunged to 1 million barrels a day in July from 1.74 million barrels a day in June after an embargo by the 27-nation European Union, which accounted for around 18 percent of Iran's exports. Crude oil exports account for about 80 percent of the country's foreign revenue.

If true, the seizure of the ScanEagle drone would be the third reported incident involving Iran and U.S. drones in the past two years.

Last month, Iran claimed that a U.S. drone had violated its airspace. The Pentagon said the unmanned Predator aircraft came under fire — at least twice but was not hit — and that the drone was over international waters.

In late 2011, Iran claimed it brought down a CIA spy drone after it entered Iranian airspace from its eastern borders with Afghanistan and Pakistan. The RQ-170 Sentinel drone, which is equipped with stealth technology, was captured almost intact. Tehran later said it recovered data from the drone.

In the case of the Sentinel, after initially saying only that a drone had been lost near the Afghan-Iran border, American officials eventually confirmed it had been monitoring Iran's military and nuclear facilities. Washington asked for it back but Iran refused, and instead released photos of Iranian officials studying the aircraft.

Salata, spokesman for the U.S. Navy's 5th Fleet, noted Tuesday that some ScanEagles operated by the U.S. Navy "have been lost into the water" over the years, but there is no "record of that occurring most recently."

Kowsari suggested that the drone may have belonged to the CIA if not the Pentagon but refused to go into details.

He said the Americans will eventually confirm the Iranian claims.

"When we captured RQ-170 Sentinel drone, the Americans initially refuted Iran's version," he said. "But later they had no choice but to admit it. The same will happen in the case of ScanEagle. It's not something they can refute."

Islamist sect in Nigeria grows more deadly

FILE: In this file photo taken Wednesday, March. 21, 2012. bodies of suspected members of the radical Islamist sect Boko Haram, are seen in the pick up van at the Bukavu Barracks in, Nigeria, Suspected members of Boko Haram attacked a police headquarters, the home of a senior police officer and set fire to a nearby bank, in Tunun Wade, Nigeria, also stealing police uniforms, and weapons before clashing with the military during their escape, Brig. Gen. Iliyasu Abba told journalists during a briefing Wednesday. Now, Boko Haram seems to be growing ever-stronger, killing more people than ever before and slowly internationalizing their outlook, a possible danger for the rest of West Africa. More than 770 people have been killed in Boko Haram attacks so far this year, according to an Associated Press count, making 2012 the worst year of violence attributed to the group (AP Photos/Salisu Rabiu, File)

JOHANNESBURG (AP) — The radical Islamist fighters gather around piles of weapons and ammunition they've stolen and shout praises to God as they shoot into the expanse of the African desert.

Those depicted in this video don't come from long-lawless Somalia, nor from al-Qaida North Africa branch. These extremists are fromBoko Haram, the Islamist group in Nigeria that turned to wide-scale violence in 2009 over local grievances and largely focused their assaults in Maiduguri, the city where the sect started.

Now, Boko Haram seems to be growing more violent with a record number of people killed this year and slowly internationalizing its stance, a possible danger for the rest of West Africa. More than 770 people have been killed in Boko Haram attacks so far this year, according to an Associated Press count, making 2012 the worst year of violence attributed to the group.

"Weak border security as well as corruption — and even membership of immigration officials in Boko Haram — could facilitate the travel of militants between northern Mali and Nigeria," warned analyst Jacob Zenn in an October publication by the Combating Terrorism Center at the U.S. Military Academy at West Point. "The insurgency is likely to become more diverse and complex over time, which will limit the efficacy of negotiations."

Nigerian President Goodluck Jonathan's government has not found an effective response to Boko Haram, analysts say. Making matters worse, government soldiers in the last two months responded to Boko Haram attacks by opening fire in public places, killing dozens of civilians in two incidents. The shootings further alienated Nigeria's Muslim population and have likely driven some toward supporting the sect, local residents say.

Boko Haram, whose name means "Western education is sacrilege" in the Hausa language of Nigeria's Muslim north, grew out of a religious movement founded by Mohammed Yusuf. The name — a moniker that stuck after Yusuf constantly used it as a refrain during his preaching — means more than just rejecting Western education, science and other Western beliefs. Adherents also dismiss Western-style democracy, which Nigeria embraced in 1999 after decades of military rule. While the nation's political and business elite have grown ever richer, poverty still crushes most of those living in the north and its young have few economic or educational opportunities. About 75 percent of the people in Nigeria's northeast — the home of Boko Haram — live in absolute poverty on less than $1 a day, according to the country's National Bureau of Statistics.

In 2009, rioting by Boko Haram set off a military crackdown that left 700 people dead in Maiduguri. Army tanks destroyed the sect's Maiduguri mosque and Yusuf was killed in police custody. The group went underground, but reemerged about a year later, carrying out guerrilla-style shootings from the back of motorbikes and setting off small bombs.

Over time Boko Haram has grown far more sophisticated, bombing the United Nations headquarters in Nigeria's capital, Abuja, and launching massive, military-style assaults like one that killed at least 185 people in Kano in January. Soldiers have been deployed in the streets across northeast Nigeria but Boko Haram has repeatedly used suicide car bombers to attack churches and security posts.

The sect has said it will stop its attacks only if the government strictly implements Shariah law and frees its imprisoned members. Officials in Nigeria's presidency have given conflicting information about reaching out to the group. In August, presidential spokesman Reuben Abati told journalists that the government had opened "back channel" negotiations with Boko Haram. On Nov. 1, after a previously unknown, self-proclaimed Boko Haram leader said the group would be willing to hold talks in Saudi Arabia, Abati again told journalists that indirect talks had begun.

However, Jonathan, in a November interview with journalists broadcast on state-run television and radio, denied any such talks had taken place.

"Presently government is not dialoging with any group; there is no dialogue between the Boko Haram and government," Jonathan said. "Boko Haram is still operating under cover ... they wear (a) mask, there's no face, so you don't have anybody to discuss with."

Abati did not respond to requests to clarify his earlier remarks.

The sect's apparent leader, Abubakar Shekau, appears to be even more hardline than Yusuf. Boko Haram has loose connections with al-Qaida in the Islamic Maghreb and Somalia's al-Shabab, according to Western military officials and diplomats. In April, witnesses said they saw English-speaking militants they believed came from Nigeria in northern Mali, which fell into the hands of Islamists in the wake of a March coup in Mali's capital.

Army Gen. Carter Ham, the commander of the U.S. military's Africa Command, said Monday that while Boko Haram appears focused on local issues it could become a greater worldwide threat if left unchecked. Ham said the group has already received training, money and weaponry from al-Qaida in the Islamic Maghreb as part of "a relationship that goes both ways."

"It is clear to me that Boko Haram's leadership aspires to broader activities across the region, certainly to Europe," Ham said at George Washington University. "As their name implies, anything that is Western is a legitimate target in their eyes. I think it's in our national interest to help the Nigerians address this problem internally before it gets worse and the organization has an ability to further expand their efforts."

However, Ham ruled out any U.S. military involvement and said a Nigerian military crackdown could only be used as "part of a broader strategy."

Meanwhile, the killings and threats continue. In a video posted last week to an online jihadist forum, Shekau said killing police "is permissible" and called democracy "a disbelieving system," while also applauding other Islamist insurgencies around the world.

"Did jihad stop? No, a thousand no's," Shekau said, according to a translation by the SITE Intelligence Group. "Jihad doesn't stop until Allah wills it to be stopped, and with the glory of Allah the almighty, oh disbelievers, oh apostates, oh hypocrites, die from your frustration."

The Nigerian Islamists warned that they intend to maintain their violent campaign, ending their message with another video showing fighters standing beside Kalashnikov assault rifles and bullets. A fighter fired a heavy machine gun into the distance, while another used a rifle with a scope. A group of fighters also walked through the scrub of the desert, with one carrying a rocket-propelled grenade launcher over his shoulder.

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Jon Gambrell can be reached at www.twitter.com/jongambrellAP.