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Why So Many Hurricanes This Year? Blame El Niño

The reason we're seeing so many storms Forecasters weren't expecting this hurricane season to be one of the busiest ever.What threw them off?

Before the beginning of this hurricane season, back in May, forecasters thought this year would be an average one. Come August, when the season typically peaks, forecasters notched up their outlook, saying the season would in fact be busier than average.

Now it's October and it's been one of the busiest seasons on record, with 19 named storms so far this year, 10 of which became hurricanes, including Hurricane Sandy, which has the potential to strike the East Coast.

That puts the 2012 Atlantic hurricane season in rarified company. Only seven seasons since 1851 (as far back as hurricane records reach) have seen 19 or more named storms. Three of these have been within the last decade: the 2010 and 2011 seasons had 19 storms each and the 2005 season had a whopping 28 storms, the most on record, including Hurricane Katrina.

Originally the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration predicted there would be nine to 15 named storms this year. Then, in August, it upped its prediction to 12 to 17 named storms, with five to eight of those becoming hurricanes. (Storms are named once they attain tropical storm status — defined as a rotating, organized storm with maximum sustained winds of at least 39 mph (63 kph). A tropical storm becomes a hurricane once its top winds hit at least 74 mph (119 kph). )

It's relatively unusual to have more storms than forecast, said Gerry Bell, the lead hurricane season forecaster at NOAA's Climate Prediction Center. So why has this hurricane season been busier than expected?

The underestimate can be blamed on El Niño, Bell told OurAmazingPlanet. Or rather, the lack of El Niño. Forecasters predicted that this climate pattern, characterized by warm surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean, would have developed by now and stymied hurricane formation by its influence on the atmosphere. But it hasn't.

Blame it on El Niño

Bell said the hurricane forecast represents how many storms there are likely to be, within a 70 percent probability. In recent years their forecasts have been 95 percent accurate, he said.

This year, cyclone activity has continued longer than expected in the Atlantic, unperturbed by El Niño, which spawns high-level winds that stream eastward and can disrupt the swirling motion that gives a developing storm its power, Bell said.

"There was a strong indication that El Niño would form in time to suppress the peak of the hurricane season and El Niño just hasn't formed yet," he said.

Other climate factors also played a part in this year's season, as well as some of the other recent busy seasons.

The main reason for the recent abundance of cyclones is that since 1995, the Atlantic Ocean basin has been in the warm phase of a cyclical climate pattern called the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, with hotter-than-average surface temperatures throughout the tropics and subtropics, Bell said. This pattern lasts for about 25-40 years, and comes with more hurricanes than its "cool" phase, he said. Warm water helps hurricanes form and fuels their strength. [Storm Season! How, When & Where Hurricanes Form]

In addition, in the past few years there has also been a strong West African monsoon, which creates disturbances in the eastern Atlantic that can turn into cyclones (the generic name for hurricanes and tropical storms), Bell said. There's also been relatively weak wind shear in the tropical Atlantic where cyclones form. Wind shear is a difference in wind speed or direction between the low and high atmosphere, which tears apart developing storms. Wind shear is the main way El Niño hampers cyclone formation.

One thing that likely isn't to blame for the increase in hurricanes in recent years is global warming, Bell said. Many climate models suggest that increased temperatures could actually lead to fewer, but stronger, hurricanes worldwide, he said.

An unusual season

Overall it's been a very unusual hurricane season, said Phil Klotzbach, a hurricane expert at Colorado State University. While there have been 10 hurricanes, they've lasted only a total of 23 days. An average hurricane season has six hurricanes, but also about 25 hurricane days. "All that's to say, we've had a lot of short-lived hurricanes so far," he said in an email. [50 Amazing Hurricane Facts]

The cyclones this year haven't been as strong as usual, with only one major hurricane, defined as Category 3 or stronger on the Saffir-Simpson scale.

Better technology also allows us to detect more hurricanes than in the past, Klotzbach said. In the past few decades satellites have significantly increased the detection of tropical storms that last less than 36 hours. This year there have been three tropical storms that lasted less than 1.5 days: tropical storms Helene, Joyce and Patty. These storms might have been missed in the pre-satellite era, and indeed, some storms actually could have been, meaning more seasons may have been as busy as this one has been.

But regardless of what the hurricane season forecast is, people who live near the Atlantic or the Gulf of Mexico need to be prepared for storms, Bell said. "It only takes one big storm to hit land to cause a lot of damage."

Reach Douglas Main at dmain@techmedianetwork.com. Follow him on Twitter@Douglas_Main. Follow OurAmazingPlanet on Twitter @OAPlanet. We're also on Facebook and Google+.

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Iraq bombings, house raids leave 40 dead

BAGHDAD (AP) — Iraqi insurgents unleashed a string of bombings and other attacks primarily targeting the country's Shiite community on Saturday, leaving at least 40 dead in a challenge to government efforts to promote a sense of stability by preventing attacks during a major Muslim holiday.

The bloodshed appeared to be the worst in Iraq since Sept. 9, when insurgents launched a wave of bombings and other attacks that left at least 92 dead in one of the country's bloodiest days this year.

The attacks underscored the difficulties facing the country's leadership as it struggles to keep its citizens safe. Authorities had increased security in hopes of preventing attacks during the four-day Eid al-Adha celebrations, when people are off work and families gather in public places.

The deadliest attacks struck in the evening in the Shiiteneighborhood of Sadr City. Police said a car packed with explosives blew up near a market, killing 12 people and wounding 27. Half an hour later, a second car bomb went off in one of Sadr city's bus stations, killing 10 and injuring 31.

Earlier in the day, a bomb exploded near playground equipment that had been set up for the holiday in a market on the capital's outskirts in the eastern neighborhood of Bawiya. Police officials said eight people were killed, including four children. Another 24 people, including children, were wounded, they added.

"Nobody expected this explosion because our neighborhood has been living in peace, away from the violence hitting the rest of the capital," said Bassem Mohammed, a 35-year-old father of three in the neighborhood who was startled by the blast.

"We feel sad for the children who thought that they would spend a happy time during Eid, but instead ended up getting killed or hurt."

Elsewhere, a bomb attached to a bus carrying Iranian Shiite pilgrims killed five people and wounded nine, according to police. The bomb, hidden on the underside of the bus, detonated as the pilgrims were heading to a Shiite shrine in Baghdad to mark the holiday.

Authorities have said they planned to increase the number of checkpoints, shut some roads and deploy extra personnel during the holiday period.

They are also relying more on undercover intelligence agents, said Lt. Col. Saad Maan Ibrahim, a spokesman for the interior ministry. He emphasized that both bombings took place on the edge of the capital rather than in densely populated areas.

"The terrorists apparently weren't able to get to the heart of the city. So they chose to attack soft targets on the outskirts," he said.

In the northern city of Mosul, gunmen broke into the houses of two Shabak families, killing a boy and his parents in one and a mother and daughter in the other, according to police. A bomb exploded near the house of another Shabak family, wounding six family members.

Shabaks are ethnically Turkomen and Shiite by religion. Most Shabaks were driven out of Mosul by Sunni militants during the sectarian fighting a few years ago.

In Tuz Khormato, about 210 kilometers (130 miles) north of Baghdad, a car bomb exploded near in a neighborhood with a Turkomen Shiite majority. Mayor Shalal Abdoul said 11 people were wounded, including three children.

Medics in nearby hospitals confirmed the casualties. All officials spoke on condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to talk to the media.

Eid al-Adha, or Feast of the Sacrifice, is a major Muslim holiday that commemorates what Muslims believe was the Prophet Abraham's willingness to sacrifice his son Ismail, the Biblical Ishmael, as a test of his faith from God. Christians and Jews believe another of Abraham's sons, Isaac, was the one almost sacrificed.

The holiday, which began Friday, marks the end of the hajj pilgrimage to Mecca. Muslims worldwide typically slaughter lambs and other animals to commemorate the holiday, sharing some of the meat with the poor.

Violence has ebbed across Iraq, but insurgents frequently attack security forces and civilians in an attempt to undermine the country's Shiite-led government.

Holidays are a particular time of concern for security forces. A wave of attacks shortly before another Muslim holiday in August, Eid al-Fitr, killed more than 90 people in one of the deadliest days in Iraq this year.

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Syrian warplanes stage 1st airstrike under truce

BEIRUT (AP) — Syrian warplanes bombed a building in a Damascus suburb on Saturday, killing at least eight people in the first airstrike since an internationally mediated cease-fire went into effect, activists said.

The attack came a day after car bombs and clashes left 151 dead, according to activist tallies, leaving the four-day truce that began Friday at the start of a major Muslim holiday in tatters.

The rapid unraveling of the effort to achieve even a temporary peace marked the latest setback to ending Syria's civil war through diplomacy after months of failed efforts.

The Britain-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said eight people were killed and many others wounded in the airstrike in Arbeen, a suburb of the capital. The area also has witnessed heavy clashes and intense shelling.

An amateur video posted by activists online showed a building that was turned into a pile of rubble said to be from the airstrike. A lifeless hand stuck out from the debris. The videos appeared consistent with AP's reporting in the area.

In the north, rebels and Kurdish neighborhood guards fought a rare battle late Friday in the embattled city of Aleppo that left 30 people dead, activists said.

In all, 151 people were reported killed on Friday, including 11 in a car bomb in a residential area of Damascus, on par with the daily death tolls preceding the cease-fire.

Shelling and clashes resumed Saturday nationwide.

A car bomb parked behind an Assyrian church near a military police compound and a military court went off Saturday killing five people In the eastern city of Deir el-Zour, according to the Observatory. Military forces that rushed to the site of the blast then came under rebel fire, and three soldiers were killed, it said.

State-run TV denied the blast caused any casualties.

Nobody claimed responsibility, but the attack was similar to those staged in the past by a radical Islamic group fighting on the rebel side, Jabhat al-Nusra, which has rejected the cease-fire outright.

The Observatory also said 30 rebels and Kurdish gunmen were killed in clashes that broke out in Aleppo's predominantly Kurdish neighborhood of Ashrafieh late Friday. A Kurdish official put the death toll at 10 Kurds, but had no figures for the rebels.

Rebels made a push Thursday into largely Kurdish and Christian areas that had been relatively quiet during the three-month battle for Syria's largest city.

Kurds say the rebels had pledged to stay out of their neighborhoods. Kurdish groups have for the most part tried to steer a middle course in the conflict between the rebels and the regime of President Bashar Assad.

Mohieddine Sheik Ali, head of the Kurdish Yekiti party, said the clashes broke out after rebels entered Ashrafieh, violating "a gentlemen's agreement" not to go into Kurdish areas in Aleppo.

He said 100,000 Kurds live in Ashrafieh and many in the nearby Sheik Maksoud area. Sheik Ali said tens of thousands of Arabs have also fled to these areas to escape the violence in other parts of Aleppo.

The Observatory said the clashes led to a wave of kidnappings between the two groups, but did not provide further details. Pro-government news websites also reported the clashes.

Kurds are the largest ethnic minority in Syria, making up around 10 percent to 15 percent of the country's 23 million people.

After the anti-government uprising began in March last year, both the Syrian government and opposition forces began reaching out to the long-marginalized minority whose support could tip the balance in the conflict.

Kurds have long complained of neglect and discrimination. But they are also leery of how they would fare in a Syria dominated by the large Sunni Arab rebel movement

In other violence, the Observatory and the Local Coordination Committees also reported shelling and shooting Saturday in Aleppo and Daraa to the south.

Syria mediator Lakhdar Brahimi, the U.N.-Arab League envoy, had mediated a four-day cease-fire that began Friday to mark the Muslim feast of Eid al-Adha.

"The cease-fire collapsed nearly three hours after it went into effect," said Rami Abdul-Rahman, who heads the Observatory.

In Lebanon, the leading LBC TV said Lebanese journalist Fidaa Itani, one of its employees covering Syria's civil war, was detained by the rebels and is being held in the town of Azaz near the Turkish border.

The station quoted a local rebel leader in Azaz, Abu Ibrahim, as saying that rebels suspected Itani after he filmed many videos of rebels operations in Aleppo. Itani's Lebanese cell phone was closed when The Associated Press tried to reach him.

The area also was the site of the May kidnapping of 11 Shiite Lebanese pilgrims who were on their way home from Iran. Two have been released while rebels say they will hold the others until Sheik Hassan Nasrallah, the leader of Lebanon's militant Hezbollah group, apologizes from the Syrian people for supporting Assad.

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