Menu



error This forum is not active, and new posts may not be made in it.
PromoteFacebookTwitter!
Luis Miguel Goitizolo

1162
61587 Posts
61587
Invite Me as a Friend
Top 25 Poster
Person Of The Week
RE: ARE WE NOW IN THE END TIMES?
10/12/2012 5:17:33 PM

With Turkey-Syria escalation, worries grow about a tip into war

With Turkey and the Syrian regime on opposite sides of the antigovernment uprising in Syria, flare-ups like the Turkish grounding of a Syrian jet this week carry great risk of tipping the two into open conflict.


Members of the Free Syrian Army walk in the Hanano area of Aleppo city in northern Syria October 10, 2012. REUTERS/Zain Karam (SYRIA - Tags: CIVIL UNREST POLITICS TPX IMAGES OF THE DAY)

Tension has steadily risen for months along Turkey's long shared border with Syria, spiking with the Syrian shoot-down of a Turkish jet fighter this summer and again last week as Turkey responded to Syrian artillery shells landing on its side of the border. Turkey says it doesn't want war, but it is far from clear where the tit-for-tat with Syria will stop.

The incident is the latest development in what has become a proxy war between President Bashar al-Assad's regime and allies Russia, Iran, and Hezbollah, and its opponents, who are backed by Turkey, the US, the European Union, and richPersian Gulf states.

Turkey hosts the Syrian opposition and has facilitated supplies to the rebel Free Syrian Army, which is fighting to topple Mr. Assad in a 20-month uprising that has turned into a global tug-of-war.

But it was Turkey's decision to force a Syrian passenger plane to land in Turkey overnight on Oct. 10 that has analysts using the word "escalation." Turkey confiscated what it claims was illegal military equipment en route from Moscow, though it has yet to make its findings public. Syria accused Turkey of "air piracy," while Russia demanded an explanation.

RELATED – What is Russia thinking on Syria? A brief guide

Chief of Staff Gen. Necdet Ozel visited the border the day of the plane grounding and said Turkey would respond "with greater force" if Syrian shells continued to land in Turkey. Reuters reported today that two jet fighters had been scrambled after a Syrian helicopter fired on a Syrian border town. The Turkish parliament last week authorized troop deployments beyond Turkey's borders.

The risks are high for Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who, not long after the anti-Assad rebellion began, reversed his government's friendly policy toward "brother" Assad to cheerlead for the opposition – figuring that Assad would in short order go the way of removed Arab Spring dictators in Tunisia, Egypt and Libya.

The Turkish government "assumed this would be a very fast process [and] wanted to have some stake," so began a "proactive involvement in this process. Actually, this calculation turned out to be wrong," says Ersin Kalaycioglu, a political science professor at Sabanci University in Istanbul.

"Now we are into this mess up to our waists, probably, if not our neck. [Turkish leaders] don't want to get out of it very easily and they are afraid of losing face," says Prof. Kalaycioglu.

Poor relations, combined with "a few accidents, and a few [incorrect] assumptions and decisions, could go all the way to a greater escalation and perhaps even war, and therefore it's a very unnerving process," says Kalaycioglu. The Erdogan government has been making "one error after another, as far a Syria is concerned."

Mr. Erdogan sought yesterday to explain the diversion of the Syrian passenger plane by stating that "munitions" destined for Syria's Ministry of Defense were among the items onboard the flight, sent by Russia's state arms exporter, and that "carrying such materials through our airspace is against international rules."

Yet Turkey's Ministry of Foreign Affairs said only that items that "may" have military application were onboard. Turkish media reported communications equipment – information that appeared to be backed up by a Syrian Airlines staff interviewed inDamascus, who described Turkish officials comparing the electronic items to the documents that described them as such.

Russia's Kommersant newspaper today said the cargo included radar spare parts for Syria's Russian-made missile-defense systems.

"Turkey has to work really hard to avoid giving the impression that it's escalating the situation," says Hugh Pope, the Turkey analyst for the International Crisis Group in Istanbul.

"Definitely Turkey's main effort should be to stay within international consensus, do its utmost to try to bring Russia, China, and Iran and all the other players that are part of the problem there onto the same page," says Mr. Pope. "There are signs that Russia is uneasy with the situation, and that Iran is uneasy, and Turkey should build on those.... It's really important for Turkey that it not be seen as part of the Syrian problem."

PUBLIC OPINION OPPOSED TO WAR

Opinion polls in Turkey make it clear that Turks – whose nation forms the eastern anchor of the US-commanded NATO alliance – do not want to get involved in a war in Syria that could spread across the region. With some 100,000 Syrian refugees now in Turkey, and more inJordan, Lebanon and Iraq, some say that regional consequences of the slow-burn rebellion are already absorbing the region.

"One of the huge successes of Turkish policy over the last decade is to decouple itself from the difficulties of the Middle East, and prove itself to be an almost-European player," says Pope. "Of course, if Turkey's attacked, and people get killed, then there is a desire for prevention, revenge ... and the responsibility of the leadership in these cases is to guide public opinion and keep things proportionate and not whip up popular sentiment, because there is no good, quick outcome of the events in Syria."

Indeed, the killing of five Turkish civilians last week in the town of Akcakale stirred nationalist sentiments in Turkey, prompted Ankara to call for an emergency meeting of NATO to discuss defensive plans – but also raised new questions about where Turkey's Syria policy was taking it."The calculations done [about a quick Assad exit] in nice offices did not work out on paper," political analyst and Milliyet columnist Semih Idiz told Al Jazeera English.

"But these expectations went awry ... the sectarian dimension kicked in, the fact that Syria proved to have a much more complicated sociology than these other countries kicked in, what was supposed to be a straightforward thing for Turkey ... has in fact turned into some kind of a debacle," says Mr. Idiz.

"[Erdogan] has to internationalize the issue as much as possible, personalize it less, and not concentrate so much on Mr. Assad ... but on the need for stability and peace in the region," adds Idiz. "There is a civil war going on in Syria at this stage, and if you take sides in a civil war, then there is very little contribution that you can make for peace."

*** Follow Scott Peterson on Twitter at @peterson__scott **

Related stories

Read this story at csmonitor.com


"Choose a job you love and you will not have to work a day in your life" (Confucius)

+0
Luis Miguel Goitizolo

1162
61587 Posts
61587
Invite Me as a Friend
Top 25 Poster
Person Of The Week
RE: ARE WE NOW IN THE END TIMES?
10/12/2012 5:23:23 PM

Syria activists say jihadis seize missile base


Associated Press/ Manu Brabo - RETRANSMISSION FOR ALTERNATIVE CROP - A Syrian youth holds a child wounded by Syrian Army shelling near Dar El Shifa hospital in Aleppo, Syria, Thursday, Oct. 11, 2012. (AP Photo/ Manu Brabo)

A Syrian man, wounded by Syrian Army shelling, cries while the bodies of his relatives lie on the street near Dar El Shifa hospital in Aleppo, Syria, Thursday, Oct. 11, 2012. (AP Photo/ Manu Brabo)
In this Thursday, Oct. 11, 2012 photo, nurses and doctors treat men, wounded by Syrian Army shelling, at Dar al-Shifa hospital in Aleppo, Syria. (AP Photo/Manu Brabo)
BEIRUT (AP) — A shadowy jihadi group believed to be linked to al-Qaida fought alongside rebels who seized a government missile defense base in Syria on Friday, activists said, heightening fears that extremists are taking advantage of the chaos to acquire advanced weapons.

Videos posted online Friday said to have been shot inside the base said the extremist group, Jabhat al-Nusra, participated in the overnight battle for the air defense base near the village of al-Taaneh, east of Aleppo in northern Syria. The videos show dozens of fighters inside the base near a radar tower, along with rows of large missiles, some on the backs of trucks.

A report by a correspondent with the Arabic satellite network Al-Jazeera who visited the base Friday said Jabhat al-Nusra had seized the base. The report showed a number of missiles and charred buildings, as fighters covered their faces with black cloths.

Two Aleppo-based activists and Rami Abdul-Rahman, head of the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, also said Jabhat al-Nusra fought in the battle.

Little is known about Jabhat al-Nusra, or the Support Front, which began claiming attacks in Syria earlier this year in postings on jihadi forums often used by al-Qaida. While neither group has officially acknowledged the other, analysts say al-Nusra's tactics, jihadist rhetoric and use of al-Qaida forums point to an affiliation.

Western powers — and many Syrians — worry that Islamist extremists are playing an increasing role in Syria's civil war, which started in March 2011 as a mostly peaceful uprising against President Bashar Assad.

Activist say more than 32,000 people have been killed in the conflict.

Despite their opposition to the Assad regime, the U.S. and others have cited the presence of extremists among the rebels as a reason not to supply them with weapons. Rebel leaders argue that the lack of military aid leaves a vacuum that extremists can exploit.

The base captured Friday is part of the large air defense infrastructure Syria has built across the country over the years, mostly for use in a possible war with archenemy Israel.

Last week, the rebels reported seizing another air defense base outside the capital, Damascus, as well as a base in the southern province of Daraa. Online videos shows them torching vehicles and seizing boxes of ammunition in the Daraa base.

The storming of such bases by rebels from inside Syria embarrasses the Assad regime, though it is unclear if the rebels have the know-how to deploy these bases' weapons.

Nor is it clear if the rebels are holding the bases after storming them.

Friday's Al-Jazeera report said rebels were already preparing to withdraw, fearing airstrikes by regime jets — a threat rebels can do little about.

Rebel forces have been vulnerable to airstrikes by the Syrian military, though they have shot down a few attack helicopters and claim to have downed at least one warplane.

One Aleppo activist said the rebels had taken all the munitions they could from the newly captured base, and he hoped they could find a way to use the missiles against Assad's air force.

"We have asked all countries to help us with anti-aircraft weapons and no one has, so hopefully these will help," said the activist, Mohammed Saeed.


"Choose a job you love and you will not have to work a day in your life" (Confucius)

+0
Luis Miguel Goitizolo

1162
61587 Posts
61587
Invite Me as a Friend
Top 25 Poster
Person Of The Week
RE: ARE WE NOW IN THE END TIMES?
10/12/2012 5:39:16 PM

Iran leader: Army ready to deter any invasion


Associated Press/Office of the Supreme Leader - In this photo released by an official website of the Iranian supreme leader's office, Iranian supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, speaks at a public gathering on his tour to the northeastern city of Bojnourd, Iran, Wednesday, Oct. 10, 2012. Iran's top leader said Wednesday that European countries are "foolish" to support sanctions against Tehran, telling them they are sacrificing themselves for the sake of the United States. (AP Photo/Office of the Supreme Leader)

TEHRAN, Iran (AP) — Iran's supreme leader said Friday that his country's military is ready to deter any attack and warned enemies of the Iranian nation to abandon any "thoughts of invasion."

Ayatollah Ali Khamenei's remarks came as tensions are rising in the region over a possible strike by Israel against Iran's nuclear facilities.

The U.S. and its allies accuse Iran of using its civilian nuclear program as a cover to developnuclear weapons. Tehran has denied the charges, saying its program is peaceful and geared toward generating electricity and producing radioisotopes to treat cancer patients.

"The readiness of the Iranian armed forces is such ... it will deter the enemy from harboring any thoughts of invasion," state TV quoted Khamenei as saying during a visit to a military base in the country's northeast.

Israel has not ruled out a military option against Iran's suspect program and has recently said that time is running out before Iran obtains a nuclear weapon. Israel considers a nuclear-armed Iran to be an existential threat, citing Iranian denials of the Holocaust, calls for Israel's destruction, development of missiles capable of striking the Jewish state and its support for hostile Arab militant groups.

Washington and others favor a mix of sanctions and diplomacy to try to force Tehran to curb its nuclear program.

Khamenei, who has final say on all state matters in the country, said Iran "is not seeking to invade anyone but will not succumb to any attack or act of aggression."

As Khamenei visited the base Friday, his host Gen. Mohmmad Ali Jafari of the powerful Revolutionary Guard said the troops' naval and missile power has now been raised to a "strategic deterrence level."

He did not elaborate.

Iran has long sought a self-sufficient military program and top officials frequently make announcements about the country's strides in military technology.

Tehran has recently said it has upgraded the accuracy of its missiles with a range of 2,000 kilometers (1,250 miles), which covers much of the Middle East, including Israel and U.S. bases in the Gulf.

However, it is virtually impossible to independently determine the actual capabilities or combat worthiness of Iran's arsenal.


"Choose a job you love and you will not have to work a day in your life" (Confucius)

+0
Luis Miguel Goitizolo

1162
61587 Posts
61587
Invite Me as a Friend
Top 25 Poster
Person Of The Week
RE: ARE WE NOW IN THE END TIMES?
10/12/2012 5:59:02 PM

Iraq to buy Czech military planes for $1 billion


Associated Press/CTK, Petr Eret, file - FILE - This April 23, 2007, file photo shows a pair of Czech-made subsonic L-159 military airplanes flying over the airport in Plasy near Plzen. Iraq will buy 28 L-159 fighter jets for about one billion US$, Czech Defence Minister Alexandr Vondra said after negotiating with Iraqi Defence Minister Sadun al-Dulaymi in Prague Friday, Oct. 12, 2012. (AP Photo/CTK, Petr Eret, file) SLOVAKIA OUT

Iraqi Defence Minister Sadun al-Dulaymi, left, and his Czech counterpart Alexandr Vondra, right, attend a news conference after their talks in Prague Friday, Oct. 12, 2012. Iraq will buy 28 Czech-made L-159 fighter jets for about one billion US$, they announced (AP photo/CPK, Stanislav Zbinek) SLOVAKIA OUT

PRAGUE (AP) — Iraq has agreed to buy 28 Czech-mademilitary airplanes in a deal worth $1 billion (€775 million), part of a broader effort by Baghdad to rebuild military capabilities destroyed during the U.S.-led invasion of the country, officials said Friday.

Iraq only has a few planes and is unable to defend its air space. The government has bought billions of dollars in tanks, fighter jets, ships and other weapons from the U.S. in recent years, but is now looking to forge military ties with other allies and nations, including Russia.

"We want to boost the ties with our old friends," Iraqi Defense Minister Saad al-Dulaimi said in a statement.

Czech Defense Minister Alexandr Vondra and Al-Dulaimi agreed to the deal Friday after a visit to the headquarters of the aircraft producer, Aero Vodochody, just north of Prague.Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki also participated in the talks.

Vondra said technical details still have to be worked out before the deal will be signed.

Under the deal, Iraq will buy 24 new subsonic L-159 military planes, which are light combat and training planes. It will also get another four planes the Czech military no longer needs, Vondra said.

He said the first used plane should be delivered half a year after the signing and all the new planes should be handed over to Iraq within four years.

The agreement, which took two years to negotiate, also foresees Czech army experts training Iraqi pilots.


"Choose a job you love and you will not have to work a day in your life" (Confucius)

+0
Luis Miguel Goitizolo

1162
61587 Posts
61587
Invite Me as a Friend
Top 25 Poster
Person Of The Week
RE: ARE WE NOW IN THE END TIMES?
10/13/2012 12:14:40 AM
I don't know what to make of Panetta's statement. Is he saying a preemptive attact on Iran would be justified? If he is, may God help us because what is likely to come is Armageddon. On the other hand, what if all of it is but a false-flag operation?

US: Hackers in Iran responsible for cyberattacks

By LOLITA C. BALDOR | Associated Press11 hrs ago

Associated Press/Jacquelyn Martin, File - FILE - In this Sept. 27, 2012, file photo, U.S. Defense Secretary Leon Panetta, speaks at a news conference with U.S. Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. Martin Dempsey, not pictured, at the Pentagon, in Washington. A former U.S. government official says American authorities firmly believe that Iranian hackers, likely supported by the Tehran government, were responsible for recent cyberattacks against oil and gas companies in the Persian Gulf and that they appeared to be in retaliation for the latest round of U.S. sanctions against the country. The former official spoke to The Associated Press shortly before Panetta, in a speech to business leaders in New York City Thursday night, Oct. 11, 2012, became the first U.S. official to publicly acknowledge the computer-based assaults. (AP Photo/Jacquelyn Martin, File)

WASHINGTON (AP) — U.S. authorities believe that Iranian-based hackers were responsible for cyberattacks that devastated Persian Gulf oil and gas companies, a former U.S. government official said. Just hours later, Defense Secretary Leon Panetta said the cyberthreat from Iran has grown, and he declared that the Pentagon is prepared to take action if American is threatened by a computer-based assault.

The former official, who is familiar with the investigation, said U.S. authorities believe the cyberattacks were likely supported by the Tehran government and came in retaliation for the latest round of American sanctions against Iran.

Before Panetta's remarks on Thursday, U.S. officials had said nothing publicly about the Gulf attacks or the investigation. But Panetta described them in a speech to business leaders in New York City, saying they were probably the most destructive cyber assault the private sector has seen to date.

Panetta did not directly link Iran to the Gulf attacks, but he said Tehran has "undertaken a concerted effort to use cyberspace to its advantage." And, he said the Pentagon has poured billions into beefing up its ability to identify the origin of a cyberattacks, block them and respond when needed.

"Potential aggressors should be aware that the United States has the capacity to locate them and hold them accountable for actions that harm America or its interests," said Panetta in a speech to the Business Executives for National Security.

A current U.S. official acknowledged Thursday that the Obama administration knows who launched the cyberattacks against the Gulf companies and that it was a state actor.

U.S. agencies have been assisting in the Gulf investigation and concluded that the level of resources needed to conduct the attack showed there was some degree of involvement by a nation state, said the former official. The officials spoke on condition of anonymity because the investigation is classified as secret.

While Panetta chose his words carefully, one cybersecurity expert said the Pentagon chief's message to Iran in the speech was evident.

"It's not something where people are throwing down the gauntlet, but I think Panetta comes pretty close to sending a clear warning (to Iran): We know who it was, maybe you want to think twice before you do it again," said cybersecurity expert James Lewis, who is with the Center for Strategic and International Studies. "I think the Iranians will put two and two together and realize he's sending them a message."

He said Panetta's remarks were an important step by the U.S. because the Iranian cyberthreat "is a new dimension in 30 years of intermittent conflict with Iran for which we are ill-prepared. It's really important to put them on notice."

The cyberattacks hit the Saudi Arabian state oil company Aramco and Qatari natural gas producer RasGas using a virus, known as Shamoon, which can spread through networked computers and ultimately wipes out files by overwriting them.

Senior defense officials said the information was declassified so that Panetta could make the public remarks. The officials added that the Pentagon is particularly concerned about the growing Iranian cyber capabilities, as well as the often discussed threats from China and Russia. The two officials spoke on condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to discuss the cyberthreats publicly.

In his speech, Panetta said the Shamoon virus replaced crucial system files at Aramco with the image of a burning U.S. flag, and also overwrote all data on the machine, rendering more than 30,000 computers useless and forcing them to be replaced. He said the Qatar attack was similar.

Panetta offered no new details on the Pentagon's growing cyber capabilities or the military rules of engagement the department is developing to guide its use of computer-based attacks when the U.S. is threatened.

He said the department is investing more than $3 billion a year in cybersecurity to beef up its ability to defend against and counter cyberthreats, including investment in U.S. Cyber Command. And the Pentagon is honing its policies so that any actions comply with the law of armed conflict.

"Our mission is to defend the nation. We defend. We deter. And if called upon, we take decisive action to protect our citizens," he said.

He added, however, that the Defense Department will not monitor American citizen's personal computers, or provide for the day-to-day security of private or commercial networks.

Panetta used the Persian Gulf attacks in his remarks as a warning to business community that it must embrace stalled legislation that would encourage companies to meet certain cybersecurity standards. And he is endorsing a planned move by President Barack Obama to use his executive powers to put some of those programs, including voluntary standards, in place until Congress acts.

"These attacks mark a significant escalation of the cyber threat," Panetta said. "And they have renewed concerns about still more destructive scenarios that could unfold."

U.S. authorities have repeatedly warned that foreign Internet hackers are probing U.S. critical infrastructure networks, including those that control utility plants, transportation systems and financial networks.

"We know of specific instances where intruders have successfully gained access to these control systems," Panetta told the business group. "We also know that they are seeking to create advanced tools to attack these systems and cause panic and destruction, and even the loss of life."

Business leaders, including the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, opposed the legislations, arguing it would expand the federal government's regulatory authority over companies already struggling in the tough economy. The bill also encourages more information sharing between the government and private companies.

Panetta pressed the group to support the stronger cybersecurity measures, warning that failure to do so could have catastrophic consequences.

"Before September 11, 2001 the warning signs were there. We weren't organized. We weren't ready. And we suffered terribly for that lack of attention," said Panetta. "We cannot let that happen again. This is a pre-9/11 moment."


"Choose a job you love and you will not have to work a day in your life" (Confucius)

+0


facebook
Like us on Facebook!