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Luis Miguel Goitizolo

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RE: ARE WE NOW IN THE END TIMES?
10/1/2012 10:06:09 PM

Rare labor petition in Iran shows economic alarm


Associated Press - In this Tuesday, Aug. 14, 2012 photo, a group of Iranian workers protest in front the Industrial Ministry building in Tehran, Iran, demanding their delayed salaries. For weeks, a manifesto complaining about Iran's sinking economy circulated in secret among factories and workshops. In the end, some 10,000 signatures were on a petition addressed to Iran's labor minister calling attention to the street-level fallout from Western sanctions: rising prices, fewer jobs. (AP Photo)

TEHRAN, Iran (AP) — For weeks, a manifesto complaining about Iran's stumbling economy circulated in secret among factories and workshops. Organizers asked for signatures and the pages began to fill up.

In the end, some 10,000 names were attached to the petition addressed to Iran's labor minister in one of the most wide-reaching public outcries over the state of the country's economy, which has received a double pounding from tightening Western sanctions and alleged mismanagement by President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's government.

The rare protest document — described to The Associated Press this week by labor activists and others — suggests growing anxiety among Iran's vast and potentially powerful working class as the ruling system struggles with the latest sanctions, which have targeted critical oil exports and blackballed Iran from international banking networks.

It also appears to reinforce the U.S. and European assertions that the economic squeeze is bringing increasing pressures on Iranian authorities. President Barack Obama and others argue that sanctions and diplomacy are the best way to wring concessions over Iran's nuclear program even as Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu pushes for a "red line" declaration that could trigger military action.

While Iran's leadership still has broad-based public support in the nuclear standoff with the West, the petition and sporadic street demonstrations over the slumping economy suggest a growing distinction between the national pride of nuclear technology and the economic hardships from Tehran's defiance. The Iranian currency, the rial, hit another all-time low against the dollar Monday, which is certain to further drive up prices of imported goods.

Jafar Azimzadeh, a labor rights activist and gas-pipe fitter, warned of stronger fallout if the government does not find ways to prop up salaries and rein in prices. "Workers would not stay at the level of writing petitions," he said. "They would go toward street gatherings and other actions."

U.S. State Department spokeswoman Victoria Nuland said the drop in the value of the rial "speaks to the unrelenting and increasingly successful international pressure that we are all bringing to bear on the Iranian economy. It's under incredible strain."

Iranian officials have repeatedly said Iran can ride out the sanctions through measures such as keeping oil flowing to Asian markets that include China and India. But Ahmadinejad last month acknowledged that Iran faces "barriers" to sell oil and make international banking transfers critical to keep commerce flowing.

In May, Ahmadinejad was cheered in the northeastern city of Mashhad as he promised to create 2.5 million new jobs and boost worker benefits. It was a welcome reception after facing mounting criticism for policies that include scattershot privatizations and allowing inflation to surge.

But the petition sent to his labor minister, Abdolreza Sheikholeslami, offered a far more bleak assessment of a country burdened by rising prices and increasing economic isolation.

"A staggering increase in prices has been biting over the past year as wages of workers have only increased 13 percent this year," said the petition, whose full text was not made available to the AP, although selected parts were viewed. It added: "Millions of workers cannot afford their monthly housing costs."

Unskilled factory workers in Iran make an average monthly wage of 3 million to 7 million rials, or about $95 to $220 at Monday's exchange rate. The official poverty line is about 10 million rials, or about $315, a month.

Meanwhile, prices keep rising — partly due to sanctions — and the rial keeps falling. A 1.5-kilogram (52-ounce) container of yoghurt has doubled to about 24,000 rials (75 cents) since early September. Various meats and rice, both staples of Iranian kitchens, have risen 48 percent and 34 percent, respectively, since last year.

Official reports put Iran's inflation rate at 23 percent, but Iran's parliament speaker last week estimated it was close to 29 percent. The unemployment rate is officially 12 percent, but some economists place it nearly three times higher.

"It's not ideology that is the weakest link for Iran's ruling system," said Sami al-Faraj, director of theKuwait Center for Strategic Studies. "It's the economy. This, of course, was an important element of the Arab Spring, and that fact is definitely not lost on Iran."

Iran's factory workers and laborers have provided the tipping points at pivotal moments. They gave vital populist backing to the 1979 Islamic Revolution and generally sided with the ruling clerics when they were under threat by riots after Ahmadinejad's disputed re-election in 2009.

The petition contains no warnings or ultimatums against the Islamic system, or references to the nuclear program, activists say. But the scope of the signatures — representing several Iranian cities — is an unusual show of grassroots unity without umbrella organizations such as unions.

"When we do not have rights for major protest rallies and strikes, petition is the only way," said Parvin Mohammadi, a retired metal industry worker and one of the organizers. She said the workers wrote a protest petition about irregular pay of their wages earlier in June.

Another labor activist said signatures were gathered clandestinely at factories and work sites. "Sometime we collected signatures through the mail," said the activist, who would only give his first name of Sadegh because of fear of reprisals from authorities.

The signatures included mine workers in the mineral-rich center and west, food and textile producers in Tehran and central Iran, and bus drivers in Tabriz, in northeastern Iran. Conspicuously absent, activist said, were workers in the oil industry, which provides up to 80 percent of Iran's foreign revenue. Iranian oil workers usually receive better wages than others.

Labor groups also object to changes in Iran's labor law, which give employers a freer hand in firing workers and would cut annual leave to 20 days from 30 days. Ali Reza Mahjoub, a representative of workers in the parliament, said he would lead fights against the changes with possibly more street protests.

"This is an exercise for unity of workers," said Hamid Reza Shokouhi, editor of independent Mardomsalari daily. He said the petition demands are not directly political but carry a whiff of dissent since "activities of workers were blocked because they were interpreted in the past as opposition to the ruling establishment."

Iranian officials have made no comment on the petition, which was only reported by the semiofficial ILNA news agency and pro-reform Shargh daily. But some lawmakers have thrown the petition their support. Abbas Ali Mansouri, a parliament member, said higher wages are needed "while workers are falling under the poverty line."

At a square in downtown Tehran, laborers gather to be picked for day jobs at construction sites, making about 300,000 rials ($9.50) a day.

"I wish I was among signatories. I was not aware of it prior to reports," said Abbas Hodavand, an unemployed construction worker. "Every day, in heat and cold, we wait to be picked up by a possible employer. This is not a life."

___

Murphy reported from Dubai, United Arab Emirates.


"Choose a job you love and you will not have to work a day in your life" (Confucius)

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Luis Miguel Goitizolo

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RE: ARE WE NOW IN THE END TIMES?
10/1/2012 11:52:20 PM

North Korea: Spark could set off nuclear war


UNITED NATIONS (AP) — A North Korean minister lashed out at the United States on Monday, saying its "hostile" policy has left the Korean peninsula a spark away from a nuclear war.

Vice Foreign Minister Pak Kil Yon told the U.N. General Assembly that the Koreas have become "the world's most dangerous hotspot" and blamed the "hostile" policy of the United States toward North Korea.

Pak said "the vicious cycle of confrontation and aggravation of tension is an ongoing phenomenon on the Korean peninsula, which has become the world's most dangerous hotspot where a spark of fire could set off a thermonuclear war."

Pak also accused the United States of seeking to use force to occupy the entire Korean peninsula — divided between the communist North and democratic South — and "use it as a stepping stone for realizing its strategy of dominating the whole of Asia."

He said the United States has finalized scenarios for a new Korean War and "is waiting for a chance to implement them."

In an apparent reference to North Korea's nuclear arsenal and massive military, Pak said the nation's "patience and self-defensive war deterrent," have prevented U.S. military provocations "from turning into an all-out war on the Korean peninsula."

"However, the DPRK's patience does not mean it is unlimited," he warned, using the initials of the country's official name, the Democratic People's Republic of Korea.

While the government aims to build "a prosperous and powerful state," Pak said, the North was right to build a strong military and "war deterrent" as a "mighty weapon" to respond immediately to provocations "and confront the war of aggression with a just war of reunifying the country."

Pak warned that "not a single problem including the nuclear issue of the Korean peninsula can be resolved without the elimination of the hostile policy of the United States, which regards the DPRK as a target of hostility and tries to stifle it at any cost."

He lamented that the atmosphere of reconciliation spawned by the historic North-South summit meeting at the dawn of the new century has deteriorated to the current "worst state" of inter-Korean relations.

Nonetheless, Pak said, North Korea "will join hands with anyone who truly wants the reunification of the country and reconciliation" without interference from outside forces.


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Luis Miguel Goitizolo

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RE: ARE WE NOW IN THE END TIMES?
10/2/2012 10:43:29 AM

JPMorgan sued by New York over mortgage securities


NEW YORK (Reuters) - New York Attorney General Eric Schneiderman on Monday filed a lawsuit against JPMorgan Chase & Co (JPM) for fraud over faulty mortgage-backed securities packaged and sold by the former Bear Stearns.

The lawsuit alleged a "systematic abandonment of underwriting guidelines" in the selling of home loans that went into securities peddled by Bear Stearns. JPMorgan acquired Bear Stearns in 2008, at the start of the financial crisis.

(Reporting by Karen Freifeld; editing by Andrew Hay)

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Luis Miguel Goitizolo

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RE: ARE WE NOW IN THE END TIMES?
10/2/2012 10:44:42 AM

Study: Fraud growing in scientific research papers


WASHINGTON (AP) — Fraud in scientific research, while still rare, is growing at a troubling pace, a new study finds.

A review of retractions in medical and biological peer-reviewed journals finds the percentage of studies withdrawn because of fraud or suspected fraud has jumped substantially since the mid-1970s. In 1976, there were fewer than 10 fraud retractions for every 1 million studies published, compared with 96 retractions per million in 2007.

The study authors aren't quite sure why this is happening. But they and outside experts point to pressure to hit it big in science, both for funding and attention, and to what seems to be a subtle increase in deception in overall society that science may simply be mirroring.

Fraud in life sciences research is still minuscule and committed by only a few dozen scientific scofflaws. However, it causes big problems, said Arturo Casadevall, a professor of microbiology at the Albert Einstein College of Medicine in New York. Casadevall is the lead author of the study which looked at the reasons for 2,047 retractions among many millions of studies published in journals and kept in a government database for medically focused research.

Fraud was the No. 1 cause of retractions, accounting for 43 percent of them. When fraud was combined with other areas of misconduct, such as plagiarism, it explained about 2 out of 3 retractions, the study found.

"Very few people are doing it, but when they do it, they are doing it in areas that are very important," Casadevall said. "And when these things come out, society loses faith in science."

Prominent retractions that Casadevall cited for fraud include a notorious British study that wrongly linked childhood vaccines to autism, nine separate studies on highly touted research at Duke University about cancer treatment, and work by a South Korean cloning expert who later was convicted in court of embezzlement and illegally buying human eggs for research.

Casadevall said he was surprised because he didn't set out to study fraud. His plan was to examine the most common avoidable errors that caused retractions. What he found was that 889 of the more than 2,000 retractions were due to fraud or suspected fraud.

While other studies have shown a rise in retractions, no previous study has found scientific misconduct as the leading cause, said Nicholas Steneck, director of the research ethics program at the University of Michigan, who wasn't involved in the Casadevall study. That shows a need for better, more honest reporting of retractions by the science journals themselves, he said.

He and others also said the findings suggest there may just be better detection of scientific fraudoverall.

Most "scientists out there are well meaning and honest people who are going to be totally appalled by this," Casadevall said.

The study was published online Monday in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, which had the second most retracted articles for all reasons, behind only the journal Science.

The publication with the most fraud-based retractions was the Journal of Biological Chemistry. PNAS ranked fifth.

Casadevall said that even if society as a whole has become more deceptive, "I used to think that science was on a different plane. But I think science is like everybody else and that we are susceptible to the same pressures."

In science, he said, "there's a disproportionate reward system" so if a researcher is published in certain prominent journals they are more likely to get jobs and funding, so the temptations increase.

"Bigger money makes for bigger reasons for fraud," said New York University bioethicist Arthur Caplan. "More fame, more potential for profit... Some of the cheating and fraud is not too dissimilar to the cheating and fraud we've seen in banking."

Science historian Marcel LaFollette, author of a book about science fraud "Stealing into Print," said researchers can't prove that more people are lying in general in society, but they get the distinct feeling it's happening more. And in 2006 an Associated Press-Ipsos poll found that while most people say they don't approve of lying, 65 percent of those questioned said it is OK to lie in certain situations.

The world has become accustomed to lying and forgives politicians when they do it in relationships, LaFollette said. But it's different when it's a doctor, scientist or an engineer because people can get hurt, she said.

Casadevall and Caplan pointed to the 1998 study in Lancet by Andrew Wakefield temporarily linking childhood vaccines to autism — a study later retracted because it was found to be what another scientific journal called "an elaborate fraud."

"Think about the damage society took when mothers started to question vaccines," Casadevall said. "That's damage and it's still going on."

Reached at home in Texas, Wakefield, who was banned from practicing medicine in his native Great Britain and whose claims are contrary to what prevailing established medical research shows about vaccine and autism, said: "There was no fraud and to use this and to use me as a poster child of fraud really compounds that error."

Casadevall said his work is about science trying to clean its own house. And because it's about fraud, he said he did one extra thing with his study: He sent reviewers not just a summary of their work, but all the data, "so they can check on us."

___

Online:

The journal: http://www.pnas.org

___

Seth Borenstein can be followed at http://twitter.com/borenbears

"Choose a job you love and you will not have to work a day in your life" (Confucius)

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Luis Miguel Goitizolo

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RE: ARE WE NOW IN THE END TIMES?
10/2/2012 4:51:48 PM

U.S.-Taliban Peace Deal Unlikely in Afghanistan


The U.S. is abandoning hope for a peace agreement with the Taliban, The New York Times reports, as NATO’s top leader told a British newspaper that the coalition is considering a quicker withdrawal of Western troops.

Once a key part of the U.S. strategy in Afghanistan, commanders on the ground and officials in Washington doubt the U.S. and the Taliban can have substantive peace talks, The Times reported.

Instead, the U.S. will work to secure a peace between the Taliban and the Afghan government, a deal that will eventually require approval from Pakistan. Substantive talks with the Taliban, officials told The Times, will most likely only happen after the withdrawal of American forces in 2014.

“It’s a very resilient enemy, and I’m not going to tell you it’s not,” a senior coalition officer told The Times. “It will be a constant battle, and it will be for years.”

Meanwhile, as so-called "green-on-blue" attacks, in which Afghan security forces have turned their weapons on their NATO counterparts, have increased this year, NATO Secretary General Anders Fogh Rasmussen said on Monday that Western troops may withdrawal from Afghanistan sooner the 2014 deadline, the U.K.’s Guardian reports.

Rasmussen said the recent attacks have been successful in undermining the “trust and confidence” between NATO and Afghan troops. With more than 50 such killings this year—far surpassing last year's count of 35—NATO might speed up its exit, Rasmussen said.

“From now until the end of 2014 you may see adaptation of our presence,” he told the Guardian.“Our troops can redeploy, take on other tasks, or even withdraw, or we can reduce the number of foreign troops. From now until the end of 2014 we will see announcements of re-deployments, withdrawals or drawdown … If the security situation allows, I would not exclude the possibility that in certain areas you could accelerate the process.”

Any such decision, he said, would come in the next three months, after Gen. John Allen, the U.S. commander in Afghanistan, submits a progress report.

On Oct. 7, the U.S. will have fought in Afghanistan for 11 years. Over the weekend, the American death toll hit 2,000.

"Choose a job you love and you will not have to work a day in your life" (Confucius)

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