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Luis Miguel Goitizolo

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RE: ARE WE NOW IN THE END TIMES?
2/12/2015 5:58:09 PM

Germany faces impossible choice as Greek austerity revolt spreads

"What’s happening to Greece today, will be happening to Italy tomorrow. Sooner or later, default is coming," says Italy's Beppe Grillo

Only Germany's Angela Merkel can stop the coming train-wreck that has been initiated by Greece's recent election

9:53PM GMT 11 Feb 2015








The political centre across southern Europe is disintegrating. Establishment parties of centre-left and centre-right - La Casta, as they say in Spain - have successively immolated themselves enforcing EMU debt-deflation.

Spain's neo-Bolivarian Podemos party refuses to fade. It has endured crippling internal rifts. It has shrugged off hostile press coverage over financial ties to Venezuela. Nothing sticks.

The insurrectionists who came from nowhere last year - with Trotskyist roots and more radical views than those of Syriza in Greece - are pulling further ahead in the polls. The latest Metroscopia survey gave Podemos 28pc. The ruling conservatives have dropped to 21pc.

The once-great PSOE - Spanish Workers Socialist Party - has fallen to 18pc and risks fading away like the Dutch Labour Party, or the French Socialists, or Greece's Pasok. You can defend EMU policies, or you can defend your political base, but you cannot do both.

As matters stand, Podemos is on track to win the Spanish elections in November on a platform calling for the cancellation of "unjust debt", a reversal of labour reforms, public control over energy, the banks, and the commanding heights of the economy, and withdrawal from Nato.

Greece's last minute offer to Brussels changes absolutely nothing

Europe's policy elites can rail angrily at the folly of these plans if they wish, but they must answer why ex-Trotskyists with a plan to dismantle market capitalism are taking a major EMU state by storm. It is what happens 5.46m people lack jobs, when 2m households still have no earned income, when youth unemployment is still running at 51.4pc, and home prices are down 42pc, six years into a depression.


It is pointless protesting that Spain's economy is turning the corner, a contested claim in any case. There comes a point when a society breaks and stops believing anything its leaders say.

The EU elites themselves have run their currency experiment into the ground by imposing synchronized monetary, fiscal, and banking contraction on the southern half of EMU, in defiance of known economic science and the lessons of the 1930s. It is they who pushed the eurozone into deflation, and thereby pushed the debtor states further into compound-interest traps.

It is they who deployed the EMU policy machinery to uphold the interests of creditors, refusing to acknowledge that the root cause of Europe's crisis was a flood excess capital flows into vulnerable economies. It is they who prevented a US-style recovery from the financial crisis, and they should not be surprised that such historic errors are coming back to haunt.

The revolt in Italy has different contours but is just as dangerous for Brussels. Italians may not wish to leave the euro but political consent for the project but broken down. All three opposition parties are now anti-euro in one way or another. Beppe Grillo's Five Star movement - with 108 seats in parliament - is openly calling for a return to the lira.

Mr Grillo proclaims that Syriza is carrying the torch for all the long-suffering peoples of southern Europe, as it is in a sense.

"What’s happening to Greece today, will be happening to Italy tomorrow. Sooner or later, default is coming," he said.

Premier Matteo Renzi's political fortunes rest on an economic recovery that hasn't come

Premier Matteo Renzi staked everthing on a recovery that has yet to happen. He is running out of political time. Deflationary dymanics are overwhelming the fiscal gains from austerity. Italy's public debt has jumped from 116pc to 133pc of GDP in three years. The youth jobless rate is 44pc and still rising. Italian GDP has fallen almost 10pc in six years, and by 15pc in the Mezzogiorno. Italy's industrial production has dropped back to the levels of 1980.

Worse than the Great Depression

The leaders of Spain and Italy know that their own populists at home will seize on any concessions to Syriza over austerity or debt relief as proof that Brussels yields only to defiance. They have a very strong incentive to make Greece suffer, even if it means a cataclysmic rupture and a Greek ejection from the euro.

Yet to act on this political impulse risks destroying the European Project. Europe's Left would nurture a black legend for a hundred years if the first radical socialist government of modern times was crushed and forced into bankruptcy by Frankfurt bankers - acting at the legal boundaries of their authority, or beyond - choosing to switch off liquidity support for the Greek financial system.

Greece's rock-star finance minister Yanis Varoufakis defies ECB's drachma threats

It would throw the Balkans into turmoil and probably shatter the security structure of the Eastern Mediterranean. It is easy to imagine a chain of events where an embittered Greece pulled out of Nato and turned to Russia, paralysing EU foreign policy in a self-feeding cycle of animosity that would ultimately force Greece out of the union altogether.

The charisma of the EU - using the Greek meaning - would drain away if such traumatic events were allowed to unfold, and all because a country of 11m people wanted to cut its primary budget surplus to 1.5pc from 4.5pc of GDP, and shake a discredited Troika off its back, for that is what it comes down to.

One is tempted to cite Jacques Delors' famous comment that "Europe is like a riding bicycle: you stop pedalling and you fall off" but that hardly captures the drama of what amounts to civil war in a union built on a self-conscious ideology of solidarity.

"The euro is fragile. It is like a house of cards. If you pull away the Greek card, they all come down,” warned Greece's finance minister Yanis Varoufakis.

“Do we really want Europe to break apart? Anybody who is tempted to think it possible to amputate Greece strategically from Europe should be careful. It is very dangerous. Who would be hit after us? Portugal?" he said.

Greece's finance minister Yanis Varoufakis says the euro "is like a house of cards"

George Osborne clearly agrees. The worries have been serious enough to prompt a one-hour Cobra security meeting. "The risks of a miscalculation or a misstep leading to a very bad outcome are growing,” said the Chancellor.

Currency guru Barry Eichengreen - the world's leading expert on the collapse of the Gold Standard in 1931 - thinks Grexit might be impossible to control. "It would be Lehman Brothers squared,” he said.

This is not the view in Germany, at least not yet. The IW and ZEW institutes both argue that Europe can safely withstand contagion now that it has a rescue machinery and banking union in place. It must not give in to "blackmail".

Such is the 'moral hazard' view of the world, the reflex that led to the Lehman collapse in 2008. "If we knew then what we know now, we wouldn't have done it," the then-US treasury secretary Tim Geithner told EMU leaders in early 2011, the first time they were tempted to eject Greece.

The fond hope is that the European Central Bank can and will smooth over any turbulence in Portugal, Italy and Spain by mopping up their bonds, now that quantitative easing is on the way. Yet the losses suffered from a Greek default would surely ignite a political firestorm in Germany.

Bild Zeitung has devoted two pages to warnings that Grexit would cost Germany €65bn, or much more once the Bundesbank's Target2 payments though the ECB system are included. The unpleasant discovery that Germany's Target2 exposure can in fact go up in smoke - despite long assurances that this could never happen - might make it untenable to continue such support.

It is unfair to pick on Portugal but its public and private debts are 380pc of GDP - the highest in Europe and higher than those of Greece - making is acutely vulnerable to toxic effects of deflation on debt dynamics.

Devaluation by China is the next great risk for a deflationary world

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Portugal's net international investment position (NIIP) - the best underlying indicator of solvency - has reached minus 112pc of GDP. Public debt has jumped from 111pc to 125pc of GDP in three years. The fiscal deficit is still 5pc. The country's ranking in global competitiveness is close to that of Greece.

"The situation in Portugal is very different," says Paulo Portas, the deputy premier. Sadly it is not. Once you violate the sanctity of monetary union and reduce EMU to a fixed-exchange system, the illusion that Portugal is out of the woods may not last long. Markets will test it.

Can Angela Merkel save the day?

Only two people can now stop the coming train-wreck. Chancellor Angela Merkel and her finance minister Wolfgang Schauble, a man who masks his passion for the EU cause behind an irascible front.

Syriza have made a strategic blunder by turning their struggle into a fight with Germany, demanding Nazi war reparations, and toying with the Russian card at the very moment when Mrs Merkel is locked in make-or-break talks on Ukraine with Vladimir Putin.

Mr Varoufakis is trying to limit the damage, praising Mrs Merkel as the "most astute politician" in Europe, and Mr Schauble as the "only European politician with intellectual substance" - a wounding formulation for the others. He has called on Germany to cast off self-doubt and assume its role as Europe's benevolent hegemon, almost as if he were evoking the glory days of the Holy Roman Empire when pious German emperors stood as guarantors for Christendom.

This is the only pitch that will work. Angela Merkel has risen above her narrow East German outlook and her fiscal platitudes to emerge as the soul-searching Godmother of Europe and the last credible defender of its unity. But even Mrs Merkel can be pushed too far.

"Choose a job you love and you will not have to work a day in your life" (Confucius)

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Luis Miguel Goitizolo

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RE: ARE WE NOW IN THE END TIMES?
2/13/2015 12:32:22 AM

Iran commander Suleimani says IS 'nearing end'

AFP

Iran's elite Revolutionary Guards take part in a 2013 military parade in Tehran (AFP Photo/Atta Kenare)


Tehran (AFP) - An influential Iranian general who has reportedly been near the front line against the Islamic State group was quoted Thursday saying the jihadists are "nearing the end of their lives".

General Qassem Suleimani, the once rarely seen commander of the powerful Quds Force, has become the public face of Iran's support for the Iraqi and Syrian governments against jihadists.

He has frequently been pictured on social media in Iraq with pro-government forces, including Kurdish fighters and Shiite militia units in battle areas.

"Considering the heavy defeats suffered by Daesh and other terrorist groups in Iraq and Syria, we are certain these groups are nearing the end of their lives," Suleimani was quoted as saying by the semi-official Fars news agency, using an Arabic acronym for IS.

His extremely rare published remarks came in a speech made Wednesday in his home province Kerman to mark the 36th anniversary of Iran's Islamic revolution.

Suleimani also said Tehran's regional influence was growing.

"Today we see signs of the Islamic revolution being exported throughout the region, from Bahrain to Iraq and from Syria to Yemen and North Africa," he said.

"The arrogants and Zionists have admitted, more than before, to their own weakness and to the Islamic republic's power, following their successive defeats," he said.

Iranian officials often use the term "arrogants" to refer to the United States and other Western powers, while Zionists is used in Tehran to refer to Israel without acknowledging its existence as a state.

IS has seized control of large parts of Syria and Iraq, declaring an Islamic "caliphate" and committing widespread atrocities.

Suleimani reportedly landed in Baghdad hours after IS overran Mosul in June and led the anti-jihadist counter-attack at the head of Iran's deep military involvement in Iraq.

The Quds Force -- the foreign wing of Iran's elite Revolutionary Guards -- conducts sensitive security functions abroad, including intelligence, special operations and political action deemed necessary to protect the Islamic republic.

"Choose a job you love and you will not have to work a day in your life" (Confucius)

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Luis Miguel Goitizolo

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RE: ARE WE NOW IN THE END TIMES?
2/13/2015 12:44:38 AM

A look at who got what in peace deal for eastern Ukraine

Associated Press

Russia-backed separatists pay respects to their comrade during a funeral at a cemetery in the east Ukrainian village of Mospino, near the city of Donetsk, Ukraine, on Thursday, Feb. 12, 2015. The militiaman was killed during recent fighting between Russia-backed separatists and government forces. Guns will fall silent, heavy weapons will pull back from the front, and Ukraine will trade a broad autonomy for the east to get back control of its Russian border by the end of this year under a peace deal hammered out Thursday after all-night negotiations between Russia, Ukraine, France and Germany. (AP Photo/Petr David Josek)


MINSK, Belarus (AP) — The peace deal for eastern Ukraine reached on Thursday sets clear deadlines for a cease-fire and the withdrawal of heavy weapons, but resolution of the main political and economic issues behind the conflict was made conditional on a series of difficult steps and put off until the end of the year.

The deal made by the leaders of France, Germany, Russia and Ukraine builds on a cease-fire agreement that was reached in September and violated almost immediately.

Here is a look at what they did and did not agree upon, and who won and lost in the process:

CEASE-FIRE

Ukrainian troops and Russian-backed separatist forces are to begin an "immediate and comprehensive" cease-fire by the start of Sunday (2200GMT, 5 p.m. EST on Saturday).

HEAVY WEAPONS WITHDRAWAL

Both sides are to pull heavy weapons back from the frontline from 25 kilometers (15 miles) to 70 kilometers (42 miles) depending on their caliber, creating a much wider buffer zone than specified under the September agreement. This should help the separatists secure their hold on Donetsk, the main city under their control, which is now within range of government artillery.

The withdrawals, which are to begin Monday and be completed within two weeks, are to be monitored by the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe. There is no provision for outside peacekeepers, something Ukraine had opposed, fearing it would open the door for troops loyal to Moscow.

FOREIGN FIGHTERS

All foreign fighters, "mercenaries" and their weapons are to leave Ukraine, a reference to the troops that Ukraine and the West accuse Russia of sending into eastern Ukraine. Moscow has insisted that the Russians in eastern Ukraine are volunteers, but its denial is belied by the sheer number of sophisticated heavy weapons in rebel hands.

PRISONERS

All prisoners on both sides are to be released no later than five days after the withdrawal of heavy weapons. Russia has been under pressure from the West to free Nadezhda Savchenko, a Ukrainian air force officer who has been on a hunger strike in a Russian prison for more than two months. The Ukrainian government would likely portray her release as a major concession. Russia, however, has charged her with involvement in the deaths of two Russian journalists in eastern Ukraine, and an influential member of parliament said Thursday that she should stand trial.

ELECTIONS

In a win for Ukraine, the separatist Donetsk and Luhansk regions, which held their own elections last fall, are obliged to hold new elections under Ukrainian law. The vote is to be monitored by international observers under the OSCE.

BORDER CONTROL

In a major victory for Russia, restoration of Ukrainian control over the border with Russia in separatist-controlled areas is conditional on Ukraine amending its constitution to grant wide powers to the eastern regions, including the right to form their own police force and trade freely with Russia. The deal sets a target date of the end of the year.

This gives Russia what it wants most: leverage over its western neighbor, which it can use to prevent Ukraine from ever joining NATO. The concession is certain to trigger heated political debate in Ukraine, which could derail implementation.

ECONOMY

In another win for Russia, Ukraine is obliged to restore banking services to the rebel regions and resume social payments, including pensions and salaries of those on the government payroll, including doctors and teachers. No deadline was set. The Ukrainian government froze all budget payments in November.


"Choose a job you love and you will not have to work a day in your life" (Confucius)

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Luis Miguel Goitizolo

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RE: ARE WE NOW IN THE END TIMES?
2/13/2015 12:56:48 AM

'Glimmer of hope' for Ukraine after new ceasefire deal

Reuters


Members of the Ukrainian armed forces ride on an armoured personnel carrier (APC) near Debaltseve, eastern Ukraine, February 12, 2015. REUTERS/Gleb Garanich

By Vladimir Soldatkin and Pavel Polityuk

MINSK (Reuters) - Germany, France, Russia and Ukraine agreed to a deal offering a "glimmer of hope" for an end to conflict in eastern Ukraine, but the United States and NATO said further intense fighting on Thursday ran counter to the spirit of the accord.

The agreement, announced after more than 16 hours of discussions in the Belarussian capital Minsk, was followed swiftly by allegations from Kiev of a new, mass influx of Russian armour into rebel-held eastern Ukraine.

It calls for a ceasefire between Ukrainian forces and Russian-backed separatists starting Sunday, the withdrawal of heavy weapons from the front line and constitutional reform to give eastern Ukraine more autonomy.

Fighting has intensified in recent days as the rebels try to take control of Debaltseve, a strategic transport hub that would link the two separatist-controlled areas of eastern Ukraine, where elections are contemplated under the accord.

The White House, under pressure from Congress to provide arms to the stretched Ukrainian military, said the deal was "potentially significant" but urged Russia to withdraw soldiers and equipment, and give Ukraine back control over its border.

"The United States is particularly concerned about the escalation of fighting today, which is inconsistent with the spirit of the accord," it said in a statement.

NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg echoed that line and told Norwegian news agency NTB: "Russia must end its support for the separatists and withdraw its forces and military equipment from eastern Ukraine."

Russia denies arming the rebels and sending troops to fight alongside them, despite what Ukraine and its Western allies say is overwhelming evidence. The conflict has killed more than 5,000 people since last April.

Keeping up the pressure on Russia, diplomats said the European Union would go ahead on Monday with a new round of sanctions against 19 Ukrainian separatists and Russians, regardless of the new ceasefire.

The asset freezes and travel bans, the latest in a long series of sanctions by the EU and United States, have piled intense economic pressure on Russia's energy-exporting economy, which has also been hit by a halving of world oil prices since last June.

After an EU summit in Brussels, the leaders of Germany, France and the European Council said wider sanctions were possible if Russia violated the ceasefire agreement.

U.S. officials also said they were not taking sanctions off the table and bluntly warned the separatists against seizing more land before Sunday's ceasefire formally takes effect.

"We are trying to send the message as strongly as we can that any effort to grab more land between now and Saturday night ... will seriously undercut this agreement," a senior U.S. official who spoke on condition of anonymity told reporters in Washington.

"TOUGH AND EMOTIONAL"

The Minsk talks were the culmination of a dramatic initiative by France and Germany following an upsurge in fighting in which the separatists tore through an earlier ceasefire line agreed to last September.

Russian President Vladimir Putin accused Ukraine of prolonging the negotiations, which seemed close to failure at several points.

German Chancellor Angela Merkel said Ukraine President Petro Poroshenko "did everything to achieve the possibility of an end to the bloodshed." She said Putin put pressure on the rebels to agree to the truce "towards the end" of the talks.

"This is a glimmer of hope, no more no less," Merkel told reporters on arriving, straight from the talks in Minsk, at a European Union summit in Brussels. "It is very important that words are followed by actions."

Russia's RIA news agency quoted Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov as saying the talks were "tough and very emotional."

The accord could delay the imposition of new sanctions against Moscow, although the U.S. State Department said it had not taken any options off the table. Secretary of State John Kerry said sanctions could be eased if it were implemented.

Fighting has surged in the past few weeks with more than 70 Ukrainian servicemen and at least 24 civilians killed so far this month, according to Reuters calculations based on official Ukrainian figures.

A Ukrainian military spokesman said about 50 tanks, 40 missile systems and 40 armoured vehicles had crossed overnight into eastern Ukraine from Russia. It was not immediately possible to verify the figures, which were higher than in previous such statements. Moscow dismisses them as groundless.

NATO has said there is overwhelming evidence of Russian armour entering Ukraine but declined to comment on the latest report.

"The intensity of fighting is evidenced by a sharp increase in the number of people trying to leave front-line towns," spokesman Andriy Lysenko said in a daily briefing held on Thursday before the deal was announced.

Rebel fighters accuse Kiev of shelling civilian areas, an accusation the Ukrainian military rejects.

The fighting has destabilised Ukraine militarily and economically. As the deal was reached, Ukraine was offered a $40 billion lifeline by the International Monetary Fund to stave off financial collapse.

Russia's economy has also suffered, from the sanctions imposed for its support for the separatists in eastern Ukraine and annexation of Ukraine's Crimea region last year. Russian shares surged on Thursday after the deal was announced and the rouble gained but then slipped back.

WEAPONS WITHDRAWAL

The agreement addressed some of the main stumbling points, including a "demarcation line" between separatists and Ukrainian forces, which the rebels wanted to reflect gains from a recent offensive that shredded an earlier ceasefire deal.

The compromise was that the rebels will withdraw weapons from a line set by the earlier Minsk agreement in September, while the Ukrainians will withdraw from the current front line, creating a 50 km (30 mile)-wide buffer zone.

Ukraine will also get control of its border with Russia, but in consultation with the rebels and only after the regions gain more autonomy under constitutional reform by the end of 2015.

Kiev has made clear, however, that it will not accept independence for the "People's Republics" the rebels have declared.

The ceasefire and heavy weapons pullback would be overseen by the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe, a Europe-wide security body.

French President Francois Hollande, who also took part in the negotiations, said there was still much work to be done on the Ukraine crisis, but the agreement was a real chance to improve the situation. "The coming hours will be decisive," he said later in Brussels.

Pro-Moscow separatists tightened the pressure on Kiev by launching some of the war's worst fighting on Wednesday, killing 19 Ukrainian soldiers in assaults near the railway town of Debaltseve.

On Thursday, senior rebel commander Eduard Basurin said his side would deliver on the ceasefire but that in the meantime Ukrainian troops should surrender Debaltseve. He said the separatists were holding "counter-attack" operations to prevent the soldiers from breaking out.

As the fighting has escalated, Washington has begun openly talking of arming Ukraine to defend itself from "Russian aggression," raising the prospect of a proxy war between one-time Cold War foes.

As the French and German leaders' peace initiative was announced, pro-Russian rebels appeared determined to drive home their advantage ahead of a deal. Armoured columns of Russian-speaking soldiers with no insignia have been advancing for days around Debaltseve, where heavy fighting has occurred this month.

(Additional reporting by Elizabeth Piper and Maria Kiselyova, Pavel Polityuk, Elizabeth Pineau, Polina Devitt, Aleksandar Vasovic, Alessandra Prentice, Margarita Chornokondatrenko, Gabriela Baczynska, Alexander Winning, Lidia Kelly, Richard Balmforth, Andrei Makhovsky, Roberta Rampton and Arshad Mohammed; writing by Giles Elgood, Philippa Fletcher and Mark Trevelyan; editing by Andrew Roche and David Storey)


"Choose a job you love and you will not have to work a day in your life" (Confucius)

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Luis Miguel Goitizolo

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RE: ARE WE NOW IN THE END TIMES?
2/13/2015 1:05:43 AM

Alabama official ordered to issue marriage licenses to gay couples

Reuters


Greg and Roger kiss after getting married in a park outside the Jefferson County Courthouse in Birmingham, Alabama February 9, 2015. REUTERS/Marvin Gentry

By Jonathan Kaminsky

MOBILE, Ala. (Reuters) - A federal judge on Thursday ordered an Alabama official to comply with her earlier ruling striking down the state's ban on same-sex matrimony and start issuing marriage licenses to gay couples, while advocates said couples in most counties were still unable to obtain licenses.

U.S. District Judge Callie Granade's order clarified that Mobile County Probate Court Judge Don Davis should follow her directive despite a contravening order from Alabama Supreme Court Justice Roy Moore that led many state judges to refrain from issuing marriage licenses to gay couples.

The ruling marked the latest twist in the controversy over gay marriage in Alabama, where probate judges have faced conflicting orders from federal and state courts. The resulting disarray has allowed some same-sex couples to marry in places such as Birmingham, while those applying for marriage licenses in dozens of counties were turned away.

Granade's order applied specifically to Mobile County, where, within an hour of the ruling, same-sex couples who had been waiting in line at a county building began to receive licenses.

Judges in the other 43 of Alabama's 67 counties that have refused to issue marriage licenses to same-sex couples did not immediately begin issuing them in the wake of Granade's order, advocates said.

Attorneys for four same-sex couples named as plaintiffs in the suit had urged Granade to issue a broad ruling to compel all judges in the state to begin granting marriage licenses to same-sex couples.

J. Michael Druhan, the lawyer for Mobile County Probate Judge Don Davis, whose county is the most populous of those that have refused to issue the licenses, said his client was stuck between the conflicting court directives and simply wanted guidance.

Druhan likened Davis, who had kept his office's marriage license operations shuttered since Granade's earlier ruling went into effect on Monday, to a U.S. soldier frozen to the spot after stepping on a mine in a Vietnamese paddy field.

"If he stands there and does nothing, the snipers are going to shoot him in the head," he said. "If he moves, the mine's going to blow him to pieces."

The U.S. Supreme Court, in a strong signal in favor of gay marriage, refused on Monday to grant a request to keep the weddings on hold until the high court decides later this year whether laws banning gay matrimony violate the U.S. Constitution.

But Moore ordered state judges to defy Granade's ruling and uphold the state's gay marriage ban, an order his office said remained in effect despite the U.S. Supreme Court's action.

Most legal experts say Alabama's probate judges, who are elected officials in a state that passed a gay marriage ban in 2006 with 81 percent of the vote, will ultimately have little choice but to follow the federal court's ruling.

Among those watching Thursday's proceedings from the courtroom filled with supporters of gay rights was Toni Quinones, a 34-year-old lesbian from Mobile.

"We're no different than anybody else," she said. "We deserve to be able to marry who we love, just like heterosexual couples."

(Editing by Peter Cooney and Eric Walsh)

"Choose a job you love and you will not have to work a day in your life" (Confucius)

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