‘I’ve never seen a week like this’ — aviation expert puts recent crashes in context

With four major airline tragedies on record, 2014 is quickly becoming the year of the airplane disaster, and anxiety over boarding a plane is flying high for many travelers.

Starting with missing Malaysia Airlines MH370 in March and continuing with three separate crashes in the past week — Air Algerie AH5017, the TransAsia flight in Taiwan and last week's downed flight over Ukraine — stories of airline emergencies have dominated headlines worldwide.

Yahoo News spoke with aviation expert and former FAA dispatcher William J. McGee for perspective on whether statistics suggest the skies have actually become more hazardous or if the timing of recent incidents just makes it seem that way.

“The pace of the last seven days is off the charts, no doubt,” McGee, author of "Attention All Passengers: The Truth About the Airline Industry," said.

“I don’t see any threads, quite frankly, other than they happened within days of each other,” McGee said. “It’s still too early to talk about how 2014 is going to shape up against other years.”

Including Thursday’s incident, there have been seven commercial aircraft accidents so far in 2014.

Statistically, that’s on pace with the number of accidents in 2013 and 2012. However, even with the death toll of Thursday’s crash yet to be determined, the number of commercial airline fatalities has spiked in 2014.

Airline fatalities have actually declined significantly over the past few years. AnInternational Air Transport Association report shows that fatalities decreased from a peak of 786 in 2010 to 210 deaths in 2013. Meanwhile, the number of total accidents has remained largely stagnant over the same time period.

McGee spoke to Yahoo News on a variety of topics from the history of the MD80 aircraft series (the Air Algerie plane is an MD83), charter flight safety and whether the climate now should really inspire aerophobia.

On why it feels like plane crashes are happening all of the time now:

“While I can’t remember a week like this, the first missing Malaysian flight from March has stayed in people’s consciousness more than others,” McGee said. “The missing flight has really just spooked the whole world. A lot of it has to do with aerophobia, fear of flying. As we’re speaking, people have died on highways across the United States that we’re never going to talk about. But it doesn’t generate news coverage in the same way as this.”

On flights going off the grid/disappearing from radar:

“Aviation experts say it’s easier than you think. Clearly with the Malaysia incident it shows there are gaps in the system," McGee said.

He adds that the idea that all of the world is connected under sophisticated monitoring systems is wrong. "If people have a conception that the world is linked in a technological sense, it’s yes and no,” he said, explaining that while countries like the U.S. have cutting-edge tracking capabilities, that's not true for many parts of the world, including the region where the Air Algerie flight is suspected of crashing.

On whether the Air Algerie MD80 model is a troubled aircraft:

“At this point, barring something we don't yet know, I don't believe there is anything in the MD80 track record that raises flags. When you compare its safety record with all other commercial aircraft currently in use, it actually is one of the safest,” McGee said.

“In fact, most of the fatal accidents involving the MD80 were not attributed to the airplane itself but to other causes, such as maintenance and pilot error. Again, barring something unknown, my two cents is that I would focus on weather and other factors first before focusing on the MD80. This plane has been around a very long time and logged a lot of hours in flight.”

On charter flight safety worldwide:

While McGee doesn’t immediately see any problems with the aircraft itself, the Air Algerie flight that crashed on Thursday was a privately chartered flight, meaning it operated outside several standard aviation regulations. While there is no evidence yet that its charter status contributed to the crash, McGee says the “Wild West charter market” creates problems around the world.

“In the United States, there are two sets of rules: one for scheduled carriers and one for what they call air taxis and charters,” McGee said. “As one FAA inspector said, ‘It’s not like there are no regulations, it’s just that they are very thin.’ Among the differences are pilot qualifications, crew rest and dispatch regulations.

“It’s like flying in two different countries,” McGee added. “Overseas, the same type of thing can apply. The airline industry has a long history of looking at charters in a different way.”

On weather incidents vs. fears of terrorism:

“If today’s event turns out to be weather related, and that’s a big ‘if’ because we don’t yet know, then you would have a connection in that these last two events have been weather related. These are not new problems. These are problems that everyone from the Wright Brothers forward have been dealing with.”

On the downed Malaysia Airlines flight traveling in Ukrainian airspace and the ongoing risk of flying over regional hot spots:

“North Korea may not be in the news for a week, but it’s still a place you don’t want to fly over. And then you have to include the China Sea, Iraq, Afghanistan, Ukraine and Israel,” McGee said.

“The idea of safely flying over these hot spots is something that has to be dispelled. Even crude rocket technology has the capability of reaching high altitudes.

“The idea that you’re going to 'fly over' something doesn’t really make sense. If an emergency issue arises, the plane will have to reduce altitude. Even when flying above 30,000 feet, these planes are still at risk.”

Follow Eric Pfeiffer on Twitter (@ericpfeiffer)

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What should concern us

Washington (AFP) - Russian President Vladimir Putin's military intervention in Ukraine is fanning nationalist sentiments that could spread across the region with dangerous, unpredictable consequences, the US military's top officer said.

General Martin Dempsey, the chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff, said Putin was pursuing an "aggressive" agenda that flouts sovereignty and seeks to address alleged grievances harbored by Moscow since the demise of the Soviet Union.

"If I have a fear about this, it's that Putin may actually light a fire that he loses control of," Dempsey said at a security conference in Aspen, Colorado.

Speaking hours after US officials accused Russia of firing artillery across the border at Ukrainian troops, Dempsey said Putin has appealed to Russian-speaking enclaves and bolstered his country's military in a bid to reassert Russian power.

"There's a rising tide of nationalism in Europe right now that's been created in many ways by these Russian activities that I find to be quite dangerous," Dempsey said in remarks broadcast by the Pentagon.

Nationalism "can be a very dangerous instinct and impulse," he said.

"My real concern is, having lit this fire in an isolated part of Eastern Europe, it may not stay in Eastern Europe," he said.

Under Putin, the Russians "are clearly on a path to assert themselves differently," not only in Eastern Europe but towards the rest of Europe and the United States, he said.

"And he's very aggressive about it. He's got a playbook that has worked for him a few times," Dempsey said.

"If you're asking me if there's a change in the relationship (with Russia), I would have to say absolutely," the general said.

Since 2008, Russia's armed forces have increased their combat readiness while investing in "strategic" weapons such as long-range aircraft and cruise missiles, according to Dempsey.

Even amid international outrage over the downing of a Malaysian airliner over Ukraine, which Western governments suspect was shot down by pro-Russian separatists armed by Moscow, Dempsey said Putin is "actually taking a decision to escalate" instead of defusing the conflict.

He said senior US government officials were weighing what assistance to provide the Ukrainian government, which has asked for weapons and electronic jammers to counter missiles employed by the separatists.

"That debate is ongoing," Dempsey said.

Washington was also discussing with its NATO partners how to respond to Moscow's "provocation" by strengthening allied military forces across Europe, he said.

There is "a recognition that we've been a little bit complacent about Europe for probably the last 10 or 15 years," Dempsey said.

Washington (AFP) - The United States on Thursday said it had evidence Russian forces were firing artillery from inside Russia on Ukrainian troops, in what officials called a "clear escalation" of the conflict.

Moscow is also planning to "deliver heavier and more powerful multiple rocket launchers" to the pro-Russian separatist forces in Ukraine, US deputy State Department spokeswoman Marie Harf said.

The evidence was based on "intelligence information" indicating arms were "continuing to flow across the border" into Ukraine since the shooting down of a Malaysian airliner with 298 on board, Harf said.

But she refused to reveal the evidence behind the allegation or give further information.

"They're firing artillery from within Russia to attack Ukrainian military," Harf told reporters.

Washington, however, was still looking into the downing of two Ukrainian fighter jets on Wednesday. Kiev has alleged the warplanes were hit by missiles fired from Russian territory.

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A piece of the wreckage of the Malaysia Airlines flight MH17 is pictured in a field near the village …

The shelling by Russian forces against Ukrainian positions had been "going on for several days," said Pentagon spokesman Colonel Steven Warren.

"It's a clear escalation," Warren told reporters.

The Pentagon did not specify the precise location of the Russian artillery units or the artillery fire.

The Russian shelling has taken place "within the last 14 days," according to a statement issued by US intelligence agencies.

Russia has continued a troop build-up near the border of Ukraine and kept up deliveries of arms and equipment to separatists since the downing of the Malaysian airliner, US defense officials told AFP.

The Russians have sent at least one battalion a week to the border area in recent weeks, raising the troop level to 15,000 forces, up from about 12,000 last week, said two defense officials, who spoke on condition of anonymity.

"It looks like a steady increase," one official said.

Military hardware has also continued to arrive at a large base set up near Rostov, which is used as a staging and training area before the equipment is transported to the rebels in Ukraine, according to defense officials.

US intelligence officials said this week that artillery and multiple rocket launcher systems recently arrived at the southwestern base in Rostov.

At a briefing earlier this week, US intelligence officials cited commercial satellite photos that showed new structures and an apparent expansion of the base over the past month.

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'New evidence'

Militant Islamist fighters on a tank take part in a military parade along the streets of northern Raqqa province June 30, 2014. REUTERS/Stringer

By Sylvia Westall

BEIRUT (Reuters) - The growing power of the ultra-hardline Islamic State means the Syrian army is now having to confront a group it has until now been reluctant to attack for political reasons.

The emergence of the al Qaeda offshoot, formerly known as the Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant (ISIL), has so far allowed President Bashar al-Assad to present himself to the world as a bulwark against Sunni Islamist radicals.

At the same time, the group's tendency to fight more moderate rebel forces also helped to divide the opposition, making it easier for Assad's forces to recapture territory lost in earlier periods of Syria's civil war.

As a result, some analysts suspect army commanders pursued a twin-track strategy against ISIL - they have sought to reduce the group's threat to the state, while ensuring it remains strong enough to continue feuding with other rebels.

Now that Islamic State's fighters have gained momentum in Syria, boosted by equipment seized in a rapid offensive next door in Iraq, the army may need to become more confrontational with the group if it wants to avoid losing territory to it.

Last month Islamic State declared an "Islamic caliphate" in territory it controls in Iraq and Syria, and vowed to expand.

It has mainly advanced in Syria by capturing land from more moderate rebel fighters. But it is now clashing with the Syrian military more often, and the army has responded by stepping up aerial bombings on its positions.

In the short term, Damascus has not been too worried about ISIL, said a former Syrian diplomat who spoke on condition of anonymity.

"In the long-term though, it must be a matter of great concern because it makes it all the more difficult should ISIL establish itself semi-permanently, especially with its control of resources like the oil."

"There is a conflict of interests here between what is short-term and practical, and a long-term consideration," the former diplomat said.

GAS FIELD ATTACK

Last week, Islamic State killed 270 soldiers, guards and staff when it captured a gas field in central Syria, in the deadliest clash yet between the group and government forces, according to the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, a group based in Britain which tracks the violence.

Syrian newspaper al-Watan, citing sources, said that around 60 members of the security forces were killed.

Syrian soldiers also fought Islamic State militants outside a government-controlled army airport in the east of the country last Friday, part of a major escalation of hostilities between the two groups.

The airport is one of the last major strategic locations in Deir al-Zor province which is not under the control of the Islamic State, and its capture would deny the Syrian army of its launch pad for air strikes on the east of the country.

If the Syrian government wants to take back control of territory in the north and east of the country, it will have to confront the Islamic State, observers say.

Made up of a few thousand fighters of various nationalities, the Islamic State lacks the firepower of the Syrian army. But it has been among the strongest of the armed groups, despite having little presence in Syria until two years ago.

Its fighters have also used non-military methods to make gains, such as encouraging ad hoc alliances, exploiting local grievances and buying off opposition fighters.

Anti-Assad activists and Western officials say the government has allowed Islamic State forces to flourish while attacking less extreme rebels.

Assad has used the group's rise to back his argument that Syria faces a militant Islamist threat, diplomats say.

"The government wants (Islamic State) to be strong enough for its propaganda purposes and is therefore hesitant to attack it," one Western diplomat said, adding that any government offensives were launched because Assad needed to be seen as acting against the group.

Although government forces have avoided attacking the group's convoys and confronting it on the ground unless it is necessary, that does not mean it has been ignored as an enemy, the Observatory's director Rami Abdurrahman said.

"Since June 10 until now, there have been air strikes on (Islamic State) areas every day," he said, adding that before then it was once every four to five days.

"When it becomes stronger, it is a danger for the Syrian regime. Where it is a little bit weaker and fights with other rebel fighters, it is good for the Syrian regime to have a rest and control the area," he said.

FLASHPOINTS

He said potential flashpoints between the army and Islamic State include Deir al-Zor province, areas around Raqqa city in central Syria, Aleppo in the northwest and eastern parts of the Hama province.

The Observatory, which relies on a network of contacts on the ground in Syria, estimates that Islamic State controls at least 35 percent of the country's territory.

Some insist Assad sees Islamic State purely as a foe.

Salem Zahran, a Lebanese analyst who is sympathetic to Assad and meets Syrian officials regularly, says Damascus views Islamic State as a threat like all Syria's other armed groups.

"The Syrian leadership ... does not differentiate (Islamic State) from the rest of the factions, and there is a danger from any faction that takes up arms," he said.

Islamic State is seen by Damascus as a danger on the ground even if it has helped to serve political objectives, said Jihad Makdissi, a former Syrian foreign ministry official who left the country and is now an independent political figure who backs the Geneva peace process for Syria.

"They see it absolutely as a threat to the country from a security and military stand point and they are already fighting them in many places according to the government's priorities."

But from a political perspective, Islamic State has served the Syrian government's objectives by demoralizing and demonising the opposition, he added.

(Additional reporting by Laila Bassam and Tom Perry; Editing by William Maclean and Giles Elgood)