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Luis Miguel Goitizolo

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RE: ARE WE NOW IN THE END TIMES?
10/4/2013 2:52:46 PM
Alleged Internet drug lord

Alleged Silk Road Drug Lord Led Double Life as Entrepreneur


Ross Ulbricht, 29, allegedly ran an online black market called Silk Road.


The alleged Internet drug lord who created an online black market dubbed the "Amazon of illegal drugs" by the FBI led a double life, cultivating an outward appearance of a clean-cut entrepreneur while secretly helping to shuffle over $1 billion in drugs via his website, authorities and his family said.

Ross William Ulbricht, 29, allegedly ran Silk Road, which the FBI called "the most sophisticated criminal marketplace on the Internet," where thousands sold cocaine, meth, MDMA and other drugs. The FBI arrested Ulbricht on Tuesday afternoon at a San Francisco library and the website was shut down, authorities said.

Ulbricht is being charged with narcotics trafficking conspiracy, computer hacking conspiracy, and money laundering conspiracy. From February of 2011 to July of 2013, Silk Road did $1.2 billion worth of business, according to the FBI.

But members of his family have said that they had no idea what he was doing. His half-brother Travis Ulbricht told Forbes that he found the news of the arrest "somewhat shocking."

"He's an exceptionally bright and smart kid. He's always been upstanding and never had any trouble with the law that I knew of," he said.

Silk Road Website Dealt Drugs, Guns, Assassins for Bitcoins, FBI Says. Read more here.

Ulbricht was even a public social media user. A cursory search brings up his Facebook page, and conversations he had with close friend René Pinnell were posted on YouTube, though they have now been removed.

According to his LinkedIn profile, which features a clean-cut headshot, he is a 2010 Penn State graduate and investment adviser and entrepreneur who "studied physics in college and worked as a research scientist for five years," until moving in a new direction.

"Now, my goals have shifted," he wrote on his LinkedIn page. "I want to use economic theory as a means to abolish the use of coercion and aggression amongst mankind. Just as slavery has been abolished most everywhere, I believe violence, coercion and all forms of force by one person over another can come to an end."

Silk Road Arrest Shines Light on 'Dark Web.' Read more here.

Ulbricht lived with René Pinnell in an apartment on Hickory Street in San Francisco's Hayes Valley neighborhood when he first moved to California from Texas, according to the FBI. The two have been friends since the age of 10, While many questions remain about the seemingly double life led by Ulbricht, just as many are being asked about how and why he was caught.

At the time of his arrest, Ulbricht had his laptop with him, indicating that he may have been conducting business in plain sight -- literally within a government building. This could be a hint to what one digital security expert said may have led to Ulbricht's undoing: cheapness.

Digital Citizens Alliance Fellow Garth Bruen told ABCNews.com that he's been pouring over the complaint against Ulbricht since it was released, and he said it seems the alleged drug kingpin's reluctance to spend money on shielding his dealings did him in.

"He made what I would say were extremely amateur mistakes. He had fake IDs shipped to his home address. I can't think of anything more bone-headed," Bruen said. "Silk Road sold access to private anonymous mail drops, yet he wouldn't spend the money to do it himself."

Ulbricht was confronted by U.S. Homeland Security officials in July after seizing a shipment of fake IDs that used Ulbricht's photo.

Ulbricht had a reputation for being very miserly with his Silk Road employees, especially with those he was entrusting secrets to, Bruen said.

"The fact that he was sharing an apartment to save money is kind of shocking to me, when he could have rented his own house. He was exposing himself to other people," he said.

According to the FBI complaint, Ulbricht even complained about the price when he was allegedly attempting to hire a hit man to murder someone who was planning to expose anonymous online identities.

"He was haggling about the price of a hit man," Bruen said. "That's a dangerous step to take."

But it may have been not following his own advice that led to his capture. "They haven't been caught yet, so they think they won't be caught," Bruen said. "He was cheap. If he had spent money on creating layers of privacy, it would have been harder to get caught."


Secret life of alleged Internet drug lord


Ross William Ulbricht posed as a clean-cut entrepreneur while running the "Amazon of illegal drugs."
Family is shocked




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Luis Miguel Goitizolo

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RE: ARE WE NOW IN THE END TIMES?
10/4/2013 3:01:07 PM
More NSA spying attempts

NSA reveals more about its spying efforts at home


National Intelligence Director James Clapper listens at left, as National Security Agency Director Gen. Keith Alexander testifies on Capitol Hill in Washington, Wednesday, Oct. 2, 2013, before the Senate Judiciary Committee oversight hearing on the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act . U.S. intelligence officials say the government shutdown is seriously damaging the intelligence community’s ability to guard against threats. (AP Photo/ Evan Vucci)
Associated Press

WASHINGTON (AP) — Top U.S. intelligence officials are revealing more about their spying in an effort to defend the National Security Agency from charges that it has invaded the privacy of Americans on a mass scale. Yet the latest disclosure — the NSA tried to track Americans' cellphone locations — has only added to the concerns of lawmakers.

NSA chief Gen. Keith Alexander told Congress on Wednesday that his spy agency ran tests in 2010 and 2011 to see if it was technically possible to gather U.S. cell-site data, which can show where a cellphone user traveled. The information was never used, Alexander said, and the testing was reported to congressional intelligence committees.

Alexander also defended his agency, denying reports that it has mined Americans' social media. He also detailed 12 previously revealed cases of abuse by NSA employees who used the network to spy on a spouse or conduct other unsanctioned missions. He said all the employees, with one exception, were disciplined.

Director of National Intelligence James Clapper joined Alexander in testifying at a Senate Judiciary Committee hearing on proposed reforms to the NSA's surveillance of phone and Internet usage around the world, exposed in June by former NSA systems analyst Edward Snowden.

Congress is considering changes in the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act, which some believe allows the NSA too much freedom in gathering U.S. phone and Internet data as part of spying on targets overseas. But neither spy chief spent much time discussing the proposed reforms. Instead, lawmakers questioned them about newly reported abuses.

"We only work within the law," Clapper said. "On occasion, we've made mistakes, some quite significant. ... Whenever we found such mistakes, we've reported, addressed and corrected them."

Alexander described the testing of gathering Americans' cellphone data, but he said the NSA did not use the data collected and does not use that capability now. The agency leaves it to the FBI to build a criminal or foreign intelligence case against a suspect and to track the suspect, he said.

"This may be something that is a future requirement for the country, but it is not right now because when we identify a number, we give it to the FBI," he said. "When they get their probable cause, they can get the locational data."

Alexander said if the NSA thought it needed to track someone that way, it would go back to the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Court — the secret court that authorizes its spying missions — for approval.

The NSA reported the U.S. cell data tests to the House and Senate intelligence committees, Alexander said, and that the data was never used for intelligence analysis. He did not say how many Americans' cellphones were tracked, however, or why his agency thought it might need that capability even hypothetically.

Only last week, Alexander refused to answer questions from Sen. Ron Wyden, D-Ore., about whether his agency had ever collected or planned to collect such cell-site data, saying it was classified. In his testimony Wednesday, the general said the NSA had released the information in letters to the intelligence committees ahead of the Judiciary Committee meeting.

Wyden was not satisfied with Alexander's answer.

"After years of stonewalling on whether the government has ever tracked or planned to track the location of law-abiding Americans through their cellphones, once again, the intelligence leadership has decided to leave most of the real story secret — even when the truth would not compromise national security," Wyden said.

In his defense of the NSA, Alexander denied a New York Times report Saturday that said the NSA searched social networks of Americans. He acknowledged his agency collects data from social networks and other commercial databases to hunt foreign terror suspects but said it is not using the information to build private files on Americans. He said the operations are only used in pursuing foreign agents and sweeping up information on Americans if they are connected to those suspects by phone calls or other data.

Alexander said that not all social network searches are authorized by the secret FISA court, but he added that the agency's searches are proper and audited internally. The authority flows from an executive order on national security dating to the Reagan administration in 1981, he said, adding: "It allows us to understand what the foreign nexus is."

Alexander called the Times report on the searches "inaccurate and wrong." The Times reported that the NSA was exploiting huge collections of personal data to create sophisticated graphs of some Americans' social connections. The newspaper said the private data included Facebook posts and banking, flight, GPS location and voting records.

Alexander and Clapper also told lawmakers that the government shutdown that began Tuesday is seriously damaging the intelligence community's ability to guard against threats. They said that they're keeping counterterrorism staff at work as well as those providing intelligence to troops in Afghanistan, but that some 70 percent of the civilian workforce has been furloughed.

Clapper said he has tried to keep on enough employees to guard against "imminent threats to life or property" but may have to call more back to work if the shutdown continues.

"The danger here ... will accumulate over time. The damage will be insidious," Clapper said. He raised the specter of treason, saying financial stress could make his intelligence officers vulnerable to being bought off by foreign spies.

___

Follow Kimberly Dozier on Twitter at http://twitter.com/kimberlydozier


NSA reveals deeper spying attempts


A top U.S. intelligence official tells Congress the agency tried to track cell phone locations in 2010 and 2011.
'We've made mistakes' »



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Luis Miguel Goitizolo

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RE: ARE WE NOW IN THE END TIMES?
10/4/2013 4:03:03 PM

Italy mourns more than 100 migrants killed in Lampedusa shipwreck


By Livia Borghese. Hada Messia and Laura Smith-Spark, CNN
October 4, 2013 -- Updated 1512 GMT (2312 HKT)


Italy-bound African refugee boat capsizes (STR/AFP/GETTY IMAGES)

STORY HIGHLIGHTS
  • Survivors say they set fire to clothes to try to get help after the boat's engine stopped
  • At least 111 people died when a boat capsized off the Italian island of Lampedusa
  • Italian authorities estimate that 200 people are still unaccounted for
  • "Today is a day of tears," Pope Francis says, as Italy marks a day of mourning

Lampedusa, Italy (CNN) -- "Today is a day of tears," Pope Francis said Friday of a shipwreck off the tiny Italian island of Lampedusa a day earlier, in which at least 111 people died.

Italy's government declared Friday a day of national mourning in the wake of the shipwreck.

Rescue efforts continued through the day, with divers at the site of the wreck, but rough waters complicated their task.

Four children were among the dead, alongside 49 women and 58 men, coast guard spokesman Filippo Marini said. Another 155 people have been rescued: 145 men, six women and four children.

There are fears the death toll could rise further since the boat, which capsized after catching fire just half a mile off the coast, may have been carrying as many as 500 migrants from Africa. Italian authorities estimate that about 200 people are not accounted for.

The U.N. refugee agency said that all but one of the survivors were from Eritrea, in the Horn of Africa. The other was Tunisian.

Among those who escaped with their lives are 40 unaccompanied boys between ages 14 and 17, said Melissa Fleming, chief spokeswoman for the U.N. refugee agency. She described the migrants as exhausted and in a state of shock.

Survivors recounted a harrowing tale of 13 days spent on the boat, which picked up its passengers from the Libyan towns of Misrata and Zuwara, to the west, Fleming said.

As they approached the coast of Lampedusa, the engine stopped. The migrants hoped to be spotted, but, they told the U.N. agency, fishing boats passed by without helping, so they set fire to clothes and blankets in a bid to attract attention. A tourist boat finally sounded the alert, and the coast guard came to their rescue, Fleming said.

Lampedusa's boat people: One man's story

The survivors have been taken to a reception center that's already overcrowded with about 1,000 other recent arrivals by boat, she said.

Lampedusa, south of Sicily and the closest Italian island to Africa, has become a destination for tens of thousands of refugees seeking to enter European Union countries. And such wrecks of migrant boats, although on a smaller scale, have become all too common.

Pope Francis, who gave his unscripted remarks while meeting with the poor on a visit to Assisi, the birthplace of his namesake Saint Francis, also railed Thursday against what occurred in Lampedusa.

Labeling the tragedy a "disgrace," he called for concerted action to ensure it is not repeated in future.

He visited Lampedusa in July to pray for refugees and migrants lost at sea and criticized then what he called "global indifference" to the island's refugee crisis.

'Fundamentally wrong'

Despite the dangers of taking to the sea in boats that are often barely seaworthy, thousands of migrants and asylum seekers depart North Africa's shores every year in search of a better life.

Another 13 men drowned off Italy's southern coast Monday when they attempted to swim ashore, the U.N. refugee agency said Thursday.

And last week, the Italian coast guard rescued a ship bound for Lampedusa from Tunisia that had 398 Syrian refugees on board.

U.N. High Commissioner for Refugees Antonio Guterres said the tragedy "should serve as a wake-up call" to the world.

"There is something fundamentally wrong in a world where people in need of protection have to resort to these perilous journeys," he said.

He called for more effective international cooperation to crack down on people smugglers, saying the latest tragedy shows how vital it is for refugees "to have legal channels to access territories where they can find protection."

Maurizio Albahari, assistant professor of anthropology at the University of Notre Dame, said it was time for Europe to enact new policies rather than simply shed tears for those who died -- or blame the traffickers.

"To solve the problem, it is vital to understand what it is that routinely brings thousands of migrants to trust smugglers, face exorbitant costs and risk their lives on unseaworthy vessels," he said. "It's quite simple. It is legally impossible for them to travel safely on planes and ferries."

This can be because their oppressive home countries won't grant them exit visas or because they're poor and can't offer the financial guarantees needed for a European visa to be granted, he said.

"But they risk the many dangers to escape despair," he said. "They fall through the immense cracks of a system that needs them for a job or might grant them asylum, but only if they first make it through miles of peril and years of exploitation."

Rights group Human Rights Watch said in its World Report 2013 that "ongoing serious human rights abuses, forced labor and indefinite military service prompt thousands of Eritreans to flee the country every year."

No election has been held since it gained independence in 1993, the rights group said. Meanwhile, torture, arbitrary detention and severe restrictions on people's freedoms "remain routine in Eritrea."

Overcrowded boats

Just under 115 kilometers (70 miles) from Tunisia, Lampedusa has been the first point of entry to Europe for more than 200,000 refugees and irregular migrants who have passed through the island since 1999.

But boats carrying migrants often are in peril at sea.

In recent years, the Italian coast guard says, it has been involved in the rescue of more than 30,000 refugees around the island.

Izabella Cooper, a spokeswoman for the European Union's border agency, Frontex, said migrants are often sent to sea in overcrowded vessels without the engine power to make such a long and dangerous journey.

Since the start of the year, Frontex -- which supports the efforts of individual EU member states -- has helped save more than 16,000 lives in search-and-rescue operations, she said.

"Italy is currently facing the biggest migratory pressure of all European countries," she said, adding that more than 31,500 have reached its shores since the beginning of the year.

The migrants mainly set off from Libya, but others also leave from Egypt, she said. "We see an increasing amount of Eritreans, Somalis, to a lesser extent sub-Saharan Africans, and an increasing number of Syrian nationals."

While Italy is the current focus of efforts by migrants and asylum-seekers hoping to enter the European Union, Cooper said, that has not always been the case.

"Seven years ago, it was the Canary Islands, then the pressure moved to the central Mediterranean, then it moved to Greece, then with the Arab Spring, it moved back to Italy," she said.

"There are definitely too many lives lost and definitely too many tragedies in the Mediterranean."

Dead or missing at sea

Rights group Amnesty International called for both Italy and the European Union to do more to safeguard the thousands who risk their lives each year in the hope of protection or a better life, rather than focusing on closing off the borders.

More than 100 missing after illegal migrant boat sinks off Bangladesh

According to a briefing published by the U.N. refugee agency in July, the peak crossing period for migrants and asylum-seekers runs from May to September.

The U.N. refugee agency recorded 40 deaths in the first six months of 2013, a figure based on interviews with survivors of the crossing.

For 2012 as a whole, 15,000 migrants and asylum-seekers reached Italy and Malta, and almost 500 people were reported dead or missing at sea, it said.

The U.N. agency credits the efforts of the Italian coast guard and Maltese armed forces for a reduction in migrant deaths in the first half of 2013 compared with the previous year.

Risk for a better life ends in death for 22 people near Indonesia

CNN's Livia Borghese reported from Lampedusa and Hada Messia from Rome, while Laura Smith-Spark wrote in London. CNN's Alexander Felton and Nina Dos Santos contributed to this report.

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Luis Miguel Goitizolo

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RE: ARE WE NOW IN THE END TIMES?
10/4/2013 4:10:53 PM

Congressman receives pics of Florida pollution from Facebook followers


Photo submitted to Rep. Patrick Murphy (D-Fla.) by Facebook followers to illustrate the pollution in Florida waterways. (Rep. Patrick Murphy via Facebook)

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Rep. Patrick Murphy, D-Fla., asked his Facebook followersfor a favor.

Send him disturbing photos of the pollution plaguing his state's waterways so that he could present the images to aCongressional hearing on Thursday. The hearing, which allowed concerned citizens to discuss the problem with members of Congress, wrapped before the gunshots were fired nearby.

Folks were more than happy to oblige.

Rep. Murphy received dozens of photos showing sludge, slicks, and suffering animals. On his Facebook page, Murphy wrote that he wanted to illustrate the "pressing need to find real solutions" about what can be done.

Long-term solutions are being discussed. As for the problem, that seems to have stemmed from water releases from Florida's Lake Okeechobee this past summer. Massive rainfall forced the Army Corps of Engineers to release polluted water from the lake into nearby estuaries. The alternative was to risk a breach of the dike.

Eric Eikenberg, chief executive officer of the Everglades Foundation, remarked that the billions of gallons of polluted water is doing serious damage, including killing oyster beds, driving away fish and raising the level of bacteria in the water, WPBF reported in July.

One possible solution, according to Eikenberg, is the Central Everglades Planning Project (CEPP), which would "create a new outlet south from Lake Okeechobee and allow water to clean naturally as it flows through sawgrass and soil before reaching the Everglades," according to WPBF.

Rep. Murphy is hoping that photos will help inspire people to realize just how bad things have gotten. He also held up a bottle of polluted water taken from one of the estuaries, according to the Miami Herald.

“When members see this, it gives them a visual and an understanding of how bad the problem is,” Murphy said.


Facebook users reply to congressman's plea


Patrick Murphy wanted to illustrate the need to fix Florida's pollution problem, and folks were happy to oblige.
Disturbing images




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Luis Miguel Goitizolo

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RE: ARE WE NOW IN THE END TIMES?
10/4/2013 4:22:34 PM

Could Revolutionary Guards sabotage Iran-U.S. thaw?

By Alex Vatanka, special to CNN
October 4, 2013 -- Updated 1518 GMT


The IRGC generals lack sufficient political power to override the Supreme Leader, Alex Vatanka says.

STORY HIGHLIGHTS
  • A September 27 phone call by the U.S. and Iranian presidents was the first in 34 years
  • The head of Iran's Islamic Revolution Guards Corp called it a "tactical mistake"
  • Alex Vatanka says the IRGC generals see themselves as the epicenter of anti-Americanism
  • But Rouhani has Khamenei's backing and all the IRGC can do is act as spoiler, he says

Editor's note: Alex Vatanka is an adjunct scholar at the Middle East Institute in Washington D.C., specializing in Middle Eastern affairs with a particular focus on Iran. He is also a senior fellow in Middle East studies at the U.S. Air Force Special Operations School and teaches at The Defense Institute of Security Assistance Management. He has lectured widely for both governmental and commercial audiences.

(CNN) -- On September 27, Iran's President Hassan Rouhani had a 15-minute phone conversation with U.S. President Barack Obama. This was a historic moment, breaking a 34-year spell, and roundly applauded in Washington and Tehran. There was, however, one notable exception.

Mohammad Ali Jafari, the head of the elite Islamic Revolution Guards Corps (IRGC), promptly called the Obama-Rouhani phone conversationa "tactical mistake." The Iranian president, according to Jafari, should have waited to make such a call until after "America's sincerity" in negotiating with Iran "can be proven," as he put it.

Alex Vatanka
Alex Vatanka

Many in Tehran interpreted Jafari's comment -- not as goodhearted advice on foreign policy strategy -- but as a slap on the wrist on President Rouhani. Anxious supporters of Rouhani now wonder if the Revolutionary Guards will soon have an open season against the eight-week-old Rouhani administration and kill off any hope for U.S.-Iran détente before it is given a proper shot. After all, the IRGC generals see themselves as the epicenter of anti-Americanism in the Islamic Republic.

Look at the Iranian political formation and you will see that when Jafari speaks it matters. He is the top general in Iran's top military-political force. He answers directly to Iran's Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who appointed Jafari back in 2007. And on Jafari's watch, the Revolutionary Guards have entered the realm of politics as never before. These days the IRGC generals regularly face off all other factions in Iran's Byzantine bureaucratic setup.

Green movement

Just take developments since 2009 as an illustration. During the heyday of Iran's Green opposition movement, triggered by the disputed presidential elections in June 2009, won by the incumbent Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, the IRGC took the lead in cracking down on the anti-regime -- and anti-Ahmadinejad -- protesters.

In the months that followed, hundreds of protesters were arrested and scores allegedly killed in the clampdown.

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The IRGC generals went out of their way to brand the leaders of the Green movement as traitors, as foreign agents and spearheads of "seditionists."

Read more: Iranian lawmakers call for execution of leaders

To the generals it mattered little that these Green leaders had at one point been pillars of the same Islamist system. Now that they were questioning the wisdom of the regime's policies they had to be punished, and harsh punishments were duly handed out. The two main Green leaders, Mir Hossein Mousavi, a former prime minister, and Mehdi Karroubi, a former speaker of the parliament, have been under house arrest since February 2011.

But while the IRGC's brutal intervention in 2009 secured Ahmadinejad's second term as president, they soon turned on him too. As Ahmadinejad began to wander off on his own political path, the IRGC by late 2010 began to denounce him as an imposter. He was denounced as the head of the "Deviant Current," a catchall phrase that IRGC gladly now applied to the supporters of the same Ahmadinejad they had gone out of their way to keep in the presidential palace.

Ahmadinjead hit back and famously labeled the top IRGC generals as his "smuggler brothers," a jab at the illicit economic activities of the IRGC cartel, and ask them to stay out of politics.

But the already unpopular and now weakened Ahmadinejad could not outshine the senior men from the Revolutionary Guards. Not while they still had Khamenei's blessing. On August 3, Ahmadinejad left the presidential palace but the IRGC generals are still looming large.

'Heroic flexibility'

But not even Ayatollah Khamenei, Iran's utmost power, is immune to IRGC's predatory ways. On September 17, Khamenei told a group of IRGC commanders that he is not against "heroic flexibility" when confronted by adversaries.

Everyone understood this phrase to mean that Tehran should now be open to serious negotiations over its nuclear program. Rouhani shortly after flew to New York, emboldened that he had Khamenei's full backing to open a new round of talks with the Americans and the other nations in the P5+1 group.

But not everyone in Tehran was on message. Two days before Rouhani's much-anticipated U.N. speech, an IRGC general sought to throw some cold water on the buzz around Rouhani and his mission of seeking détente with the United States.

In a statement that seemed to question Khamenei's directive from a week earlier, the general said Iran "will not make any heroic exercise in regards to [its] nuclear rights." The man behind those words is General Hossein Salami, the second-in-command in the IRGC.

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Salami and his boss Jafari and the other IRGC generals know better than openly defy the wishes of Khamenei. This is why they go about it cautiously. They do not explicitly condemn Rouhani for talking to Obama, but call it a "tactical mistake." They don't say Ayatollah Khamenei's idea of "heroic exercise" is a bad one, but say it cannot apply to the one topic that matters, Iran's nuclear program.

If Khamenei wants to instil "heroic flexibility" in Iranian diplomacy, simply because the sanctions are bleeding Iran and his regime to death and he needs a way out -- then the IRGC generals do not have it in them to shoot down the trial balloons that he has launched. The IRGC generals are politically not that powerful that they can override the Supreme Leader.

But it is very obvious that the IRGC generals do not like any thawing in Iran's strained relations with the United States. They are principal stakeholders in the Iranian regime and fearful they will lose out if the status quo is somehow transformed.

The question is whether the generals will sit fuming at the sidelines and limit themselves to critiquing attempts to overhaul Iran's foreign policy or actively look for ways to sabotage it.

Supporters of Rouhani and his foreign policy agenda suspect sabotage and even violence. As Rouhani returned from New York, his motorcade came under attack by hardliners just as he was leaving Mehr Abad Airport in Tehran. This could be a harbinger of more to come.

Read more: Shoe thrown at Rouhani -- report

This week former President Mohammad Khatami warned about the return of "terror" of the 1990s when reformist candidates were frequently hounded and sometimes assassinated. "These are not random but organized operations, he warned. There is no doubt that he had the IRGC generals in mind too when he said that.

Sanctions

In the fast unfolding saga of U.S.-Iran relations, the IRGC generals can be expected to play the role of a spoiler for some time to come. This reality no doubt disheartens the supporters of Rouhani. But the IRGC generals are just that, namely spoilers. They have not presented a single credible blueprint for Iran's to come out of international isolation and ways to stop the plummeting economic conditions. They have put on the old mantle of the armed defender of Iranian nation but no foreign armies are lining up to invade.

The IRGC generals still look for legitimacy by pointing back at the role they played in defending Iran against Saddam Hussein's invading army during the 1980-1988 Iran-Iraq War. But Iran's conflict today is not comparable to the circumstances of the Iran-Iraq War.

Iran is bleeding today because there is a global economic sanction regime against it, backed by a strong international consensus.

Ayatollah Khamenei, certainly never a fan of the West or the United States, grasps the difference. That is why he conceded to the need for "heroic flexibility" and looking for ways to break the stalemate.

That is why Rouhani says he has the Supreme Leader's full backing to negotiate with the world. And unless the IRGC generals can come up with an alternative narrative for the way forward for Iran, then all they can do is sabotage Rouhani's efforts and hope that they can get away with it.

Read more: Why Rouhani needs Obama's help

Read more: Be cautious with new, smiley-face Iran

Read more: Can Rouhani or Obama deliver on any deal?

Read more: Amanpour -- why Rouhani may be different

Read more: One day, there might be a U.S.-Iran handshake

The opinions expressed in this commentary are solely those of Alex Vatanka.



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