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Luis Miguel Goitizolo

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RE: ARE WE NOW IN THE END TIMES?
9/20/2013 9:48:17 AM
Massive cost of Colo. floods

Property losses from Colorado flood projected at about $2 billion


(Photo courtesy of the Colorado National Guard) Water from the Big Thompson River chewed through this section of Colorado Highway 34, as seen from a National Guard helicopter, with debris littering the road.
Reuters

By Keith Coffman

DENVER (Reuters) - Property losses from deadly flooding in Colorado will total nearly $2 billion, about half from housing and half from the commercial and government sectors, catastrophe modeling firm Eqecat said on Wednesday in the first comprehensive estimate of the disaster's economic toll.

State and county emergency management officials have hardly begun to prepare actual damage assessments from flooding that has ravaged thousands of homes and killed at least eight people in a disaster zone in and around Colorado's biggest urban centers.

The projected losses for residential property alone are about $900 million - equivalent to more than $200 for each of the 4 million people who live in Colorado's 17 flood-stricken counties, based on 2012 census data. Most of the overall losses are uninsured, the firm said.

The tally for residential losses includes damaged or destroyed housing, as well as lost furnishings and belongings and costs incurred by displaced residents to live elsewhere until their dwellings are repaired or replaced, Eqecat said.

Another $1 billion is attributed to losses projected for commercial and government property, including roads and bridges, Eqecat senior vice president Tom Larsen told Reuters.

The projection - small compared with Eqecat's initial estimate of $20 billion in total economic losses from Superstorm Sandy last year - came as Colorado was still coming to grips with widespread devastation from floods unleashed by torrential downpours last week.

Eqecat's loss projection for Sandy was later revised upward to $50 million, which Larsen said ended up being in the realm of most final estimates from that disaster.

Carole Walker, executive director of the Rocky Mountain Insurance Information Association, said the Eqecat figures struck her as credible.

'GOOD FIRST SNAPSHOT'

"This is a good first snapshot of the extent of the damage, based on the numbers of buildings damaged and destroyed that we're seeing," Walker said.

She said the recent flooding in Colorado ranks as the state's most destructive natural disaster on record in terms of its geographic scope and severity of property damage.

The stage was set by heavy, unrelenting rains that drenched a 130-mile stretch of the eastern slopes of the Colorado Rockies for a solid week, starting last Monday night.

Within three days, torrents of runoff were gushing down rain-saturated mountainsides through canyons that funneled the floodwaters straight into populated areas below. Foothills towns clustered at the base of Colorado's Front Range in Larimer and Boulder counties northwest of Denver bore the immediate brunt of the deluge.

The flooding then progressed downstream and spread onto the prairie along the basin of the South Platte River, submerging large tracts of farmland and pastures, as well as oil and gas production well sites that dot the region.

At least 1,700 homes have been destroyed, most of those in hard-hit Larimer County, and an estimated 16,300 dwellings have been damaged throughout the flood zone, according to preliminary estimates from state and county officials.

Rescue teams in helicopters and military vehicles scrambled again on Wednesday to reach the last pockets of survivors known to have been stranded by the historic floods.

Even as evacuees continued to crowd into emergency shelters, more than 6,400 flood survivors have already applied for federal disaster assistance, according to the Federal Emergency Management Agency.

RAVAGED ROADS AND BRIDGES

The U.S. Department of Transportation on Wednesday offered $30 million in additional flood relief to Colorado to help restore hundreds of miles of washed-out or weakened roads and bridges, though state and county officials say repair costs will ultimately run many times higher.

A preliminary assessment of the state's infrastructure showed damage of $40 million to roads and $112 million to bridges, the U.S. Transportation Department said in a statement.

But repair costs for state and county roads are likely to run into the hundreds of millions of dollars, Colorado Department of Transportation spokeswoman Amy Ford said.

"This is truly unprecedented, what we're experiencing," she said, citing nearly three dozen state highway closures at the peak of the disaster, along with scores of damaged county roads and 50 bridges that were damaged or destroyed.

She said the full extent of the devastation is hard to quantify just yet because "many of our assets are still under water" or require closer inspection.

"What looks like an OK road now on top might not be underneath," she said.

She said the state's Transportation Commission has just allocated its entire $100 million contingency fund for emergency highway and bridge repairs and would seek reimbursement from the federal government.

In Boulder County alone, another area that bore the brunt of flash floods last week, early estimates put the cost of repairing damaged roads and bridges at $150 million.

Damage to railroad tracks west of Denver has forced both passenger and freight traffic to make detours while repairs are under way.

Passengers riding Amtrak's San Francisco-Chicago Zephyr line will be shuttled on buses from Salt Lake City to Denver, where they can then board eastbound trains for the rest of their trip, spokeswoman Kimberly Woods said.

The Union Pacific has sustained damage to several of its tracks in the flood zone, spokesman Mark Davis said. The largest such disruption is forcing coal shipments on one line to make a 600-mile detour through Wyoming and Utah, delaying deliveries by 72 hours, he said.

Sewage treatment plants and other utilities have been knocked out in a number of towns. And standing water left by floods on prairie farmlands east of the Rockies posed the threat of significant damage to crops already planted in the region.

(Additional writing and reporting by Steve Gorman and Alex Dobuzinskis; Editing by Cynthia Johnston, James Dalgleish, Bill Trott and Steve Orlofsky)

Staggering cost of deadly Colorado floods



The projected losses for just the residential property in the 17 flood-stricken counties total about $900 million.
Most are uninsured



"Choose a job you love and you will not have to work a day in your life" (Confucius)

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Luis Miguel Goitizolo

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RE: ARE WE NOW IN THE END TIMES?
9/20/2013 9:15:01 PM
Syria gives up weapons info

Syria sends OPCW chemical weapons inventory


FILE - In this file photo released Saturday Aug. 31, 2013 by the Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons, samples brought back by the U.N. chemical weapons inspection team are checked in upon their arrival at The Hague, Netherlands. Syria has sent the Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons an "initial declaration" outlining its weapons program, the organization said Friday Sept. 20, 2013. (AP Photo/OPCW, Henry Arvidsson, File)
Associated Press

THE HAGUE, Netherlands (AP) — Syria has sent the Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons an "initial declaration" outlining its weapons program, the organization said Friday.

Spokesman Michael Luhan told The Associated Press that the declaration is "being reviewed by our verification division." The organization will not release details of what is in the declaration.

U.S. officials said last week that the United States and Russia agreed that Syria had roughly 1,000 metric tons of chemical weapons agents and precursors, including blister agents, such as sulfur and mustard gas and nerve agents like sarin.

In the aftermath of the U.N. report that concluded sarin had been used in an attack in Damascus last month, the Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons, which polices the treaty outlawing chemical weapons, is looking at ways to fast-track moves to secure and destroy Syria's arsenal of poison gas and nerve agents as well as its production facilities.

However, diplomatic efforts to speed up the process are moving slowly. A meeting initially scheduled for Sunday at which the organization's 41-nation executive council was to have discussed a U.S.-Russian plan to swiftly rid Syria of chemical weapons was postponed Friday, and no new date was immediately set. No reason was given for the postponement.

Under a U.S.-Russia agreement brokered last weekend in Geneva, inspectors are to be on the ground in Syria by November. During that month, they are to complete their initial assessment and all mixing and filling equipment for chemical weapons is to be destroyed.

All components of the chemical weapons program are to be removed from the country or destroyed by mid-2014.

The Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons plan of action will be backed up by a U.N. Security Council resolution, and negotiations remain underway on the text of such a resolution.

U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry said he talked to his Russian counterpart, Sergey Lavrov, about Syria's chemical weapons early Friday.

"I had a fairly long conversation with Foreign Minister Lavrov," Kerry said in Washington. "We talked about the cooperation which we both agreed to continue to provide, moving not only toward the adoption of the OPCW rules and regulations, but also a resolution that is firm and strong within the United Nations. We will continue to work on that."

In an interview with Fox News Channel aired Wednesday, Syrian President Bashar Assad blamed terrorists for the Aug. 21 chemical attack, which the U.S. says killed more than 1,400 people, including hundreds of children. He said evidence that terrorist groups have used sarin gas has been turned over to Russia and that Russia, through one of its satellites, has evidence that the rockets in the attack were launched from another area.

While the U.N. report did not lay blame, many experts interpreting the report said all indications were that the attack was conducted by Assad forces.

____

Associated Press writer Deb Riechmann contributed from Washington, D.C.


Syria hands over weapons details


The country has given information regarding its chemical arms arsenal to the Hague-based regulator.
More than 1,000 metric tons



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Luis Miguel Goitizolo

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RE: ARE WE NOW IN THE END TIMES?
9/20/2013 9:21:47 PM
U.S.-Iran meeting eyed

US and Iran eye diplomatic defrosting at UN


In this Sept. 10, 2013 photo released by the official website of the office of the Iranian Presidency, Iranian President Hasan Rouhani speaks during an interview with state television at the presidency in Tehran, Iran. The presidents of America and Iran may meet briefly next week for the first time, marking a symbolic but significant step toward easing their countries' tense relationship. (AP Photo/Presidency Office, Rouzbeh Jadidoleslam)
Associated Press

WASHINGTON (AP) — President Barack Obama and Iran's new president may meet briefly next week for the first time, marking a symbolic but significant step toward easing their countries' tense relationship. An exchange of letters between the leaders already has raised expectations for a revival of stalled nuclear talks, though Iran is still likely to seek an easing of international sanctions in exchange for significant progress.

In small steps and encouraging statements, Iran's leaders appear to be opening a door more widely to detente in their nuclear dispute with the U.S. Cautiously optimistic yet still skeptical, Washington is weighing whether Iranian President Hasan Rouhani's recent overtures actually represent new policies or just new packaging.

"Negotiations with the Iranians is always difficult," President Barack Obama said in a recent interview with ABC News. "I think this new president is not going to suddenly make it easy. But, you know, my view is that if you have both a credible threat of force, combined with a rigorous diplomatic effort, that, in fact, you can strike a deal."

Both Obama and Rouhani will be in New York next week for the annual meeting of the U.N. General Assembly. The White House hasn't ruled out the possibility of a direct exchange, though spokesman Jay Carney said no meeting is scheduled.

Obama has long said he would be open to discussions with his Iranian counterparts if Tehran shows it is serious about curbing its nuclear program.

"There have been a lot of interesting things said out of Tehran and the new government — and encouraging things," Carney said Thursday. "But actions speak louder than words."

Iran has repeatedly said it wants sanctions eased as a first step to make any significant progress in nuclear negotiations. Sanctions levied by the U.S. and Europe have contributed to a rapid rise in inflation and unemployment in Iran.

Tehran insists its nuclear program is peaceful and that it is enriching uranium to levels needed for medical isotopes and reactor fuel. But Western powers, including the U.S., fear Iran is trying to build a nuclear bomb.

Whether any headway is made on the nuclear issue could hinge on how the U.S. and Iran handle negotiations to dismantle Syria's vast chemical weapons stockpile. Iran is the chief benefactor to Syria, where an Aug. 21 chemical weapons attack on Damascus suburbs killed as many as 1,400 people, according to U.S. and Western intelligence agencies, who blame the government of Syrian President Bashar Assad.

Yet Iran has been vociferous in its condemnation of chemical weapons attacks in Syria. In an op-ed published in Thursday's Washington Post, Rouhani said Syria "has become the scene of heartbreaking violence" and pledged to help facilitate dialogue between Assad's regime and the rebel opposition.

"But to move beyond impasses, whether in relation to Syria, my country's nuclear program or its relations with the United States, we need to aim higher," Rouhani wrote. "Rather than focusing on how to prevent things from getting worse, we need to think — and talk — about how to make things better. To do that, we all need to muster the courage to start conveying what we want — clearly, concisely and sincerely — and to back it up with the political will to take necessary action."

Robert Einhorn, who left the State Department in May after serving as special adviser for arms control and a negotiator on the talks with Iran, said the nuclear discussions could dissolve if the Syria plan fails.

"I think the American public, the American Congress would say, 'Oh, you've got to be kidding. ... Look what happened last time. The Syrians weren't serious; do you think the Iranians are serious about diplomacy? They're just going to play this out, they're going to play for time and advance their nuclear program, just the way the Syrians did on the chemical weapons,'" Einhorn, now at the Brookings Institution, said last week at the Atlantic Council think tank.

"On the other hand, if you had a good deal, if the current efforts resulted in the end of Syria's chemical weapons program — verifiably, credibly and quickly, with the absence of military action — I think this could have very positive implications on prospects of diplomacy and willingness to take a risk on diplomacy in the case of Iran," Einhorn said.

Since Rouhani's election in June as the Islamic Republic's president, he and Obama have exchanged letters in what U.S. officials describe as an encouraging easing of Iran's defiance of the U.S. In contrast to his recalcitrant predecessor, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, Rouhani is widely seen as a moderate politician who may have more autonomy to govern under Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

It's unclear how many letters Obama and Rouhani have exchanged. The U.S. president sent at least one letter after Rouhani's inauguration in early August and Iranian officials say the new president did respond.

White House officials said Obama's letter to Rouhani touched on the long-stalled negotiations over Tehran's nuclear program, one of the main roadblocks to diplomacy between the two countries. Officials said Obama indicated that Washington was ready to resolve the nuclear issue in a way that would allow Iran to demonstrate that its program was exclusively for peaceful purposes.

"The letter also conveyed the need to act with a sense of urgency to address this issue because, as we have long said, the window of opportunity for resolving this diplomatically is open, but it will not remain open indefinitely," Carney said.

Rouhani, in his first interview with a Western media outlet, told NBC News that he thanked Obama for his outreach and "expressed Iran's viewpoint on the issues raised in his letter and some other issues."

In 2009, shortly after taking office, Obama also wrote to Khamenei expressing a desire for a different type of relationship between their countries. People familiar with the outreach say Khamenei responded with a letter of his own but gave little ground and, ultimately, the communications fizzled.

Einhorn also predicted that negotiators from the U.S. and Iran will sit down for direct one-on-one talks about the nuclear issue in the near future — a direct negotiation that he said has not happened since 2009.

Any direct exchange between Obama and Rouhani at the United Nations would be largely symbolic, with substantive negotiations on Iran's nuclear program almost certainly reserved for talks with officials from both governments.

Trita Parsi, the president of the National Iranian American Council, said Rouhani has a narrow window of opportunity to show the U.S. and the international community that he's more serious about negotiations than his predecessors.

"He doesn't have much time to show that his approach is more effective than the regime previously," Parsi said. "It's important for him to present something at the U.N. that is very memorable, that really adds to what he has already been doing over the last couple of weeks."

___

Associated Press writer Brian Murphy in Dubai contributed to this report.

___

Follow Julie Pace and Lara Jakes on Twitter at https://twitter.com/jpaceDC and https://twitter.com/larajakesAP


Possible breakthrough for U.S.-Iran relations


The presidents of the two countries could hold talks for the first time at the United Nations next week.
'Positive implications'



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Luis Miguel Goitizolo

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RE: ARE WE NOW IN THE END TIMES?
9/21/2013 9:51:34 AM

Strongest Storm on Earth En Route to Hong Kong




Super-Typhoon Usagi became the strongest storm on Earth on Thursday. Though it’s weakened since then, the storm is still churning toward Hong Kong and could create major disruptions with a likely landfall as early as Sunday.

On Thursday, Usagi measured sustained wind speeds of 160 mph. Those winds made it the strongest storm on Earth this year, besting Utor, which recorded wind speeds of 150 mph prior to making landfall in the Philippines in mid-August according to the Capital Weather Gang. NASA created a 3D satellite image of Usagi at its peak, showing an extremely well-developed eyewall.


Satellite image of Super-Typhoon Usagi spinning in the Philippines Sea on Thursday.
Credit: Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies

Measurements by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center on Friday morning showed that Usagi had sustained winds of 150 mph with gusts up to 184 mph. That’s still enough to classify it as a supertyphoon or make it the equivalent of a Category 4 hurricane. The storm is also kicking up waves as high as 45 feet.

The storm is expected to deliver a sharp blow to Taiwan on Friday and Saturday before likely heading toward Hong Kong. Taiwan’s Central Weather Bureau has issued an “extremely torrential rain advisory” for the southeastern part of island. The storm could potentially drop 20-30 inches of rain on Taiwan over the next two days. That’s prompted the Defense Ministry to deploy more than 1,600 soldiers to areas most prone to landslides and flooding according to AFP.

A 3D image of Super-Typhoon Usagi on Sept. 19 shows heavy rain (red) at the base of the eyewall. The lightning flashes (ring of small orange dots) are displayed at 5 km altitude. That's near the freezing level in tropical cyclones and near the top of the heavy precipitation. Credit: NASA/Owen Kelley

The Philippines could catch a glancing blow. Coastal villages have been evacuated ahead of the storm according to the Guardian. Utor struck the island chain last month, dropping 7.5 inches of rain.

Usagi will weaken further as it moves west, but most forecasts have it making landfall very close to Hong Kong by Sunday. Winds will likely be closer to 100 mph at that point, but the threat of torrential rain is still likely. The timing of landfall couldn't be worse. The storm is poised to make landfall during a mid-Autumn festival, which has been likened to a hurricane hitting the U.S. over Thanksgiving weekend. That could cause travel delays that ripple beyond areas immediately impacted by the storm.

The forecast track of Usagi issued by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center on Friday.
Credit: Joint Typhoon Warning Center

Coastal flooding could be a concern in Hong Kong, which is home to roughly 7 million people. While its unknown at this point what magnitude of flooding the storm might cause, the Capital Weather Gang speculated a direct hit on Hong Kong could bring heavy rain and potentially devestating storm surge.

A recent study on flooding of the world’s largest coastal cities found that Hong Kong has $60.7 billion sitting at or below the 100-year flood level. Sea levels have risen in Hong Kong’s Victoria Harbor by a little more than an inch per decade since 1954. That same study noted that if nothing is done to improve Hong Kong’s flood defense, coastal flooding could put $140 billion at-risk if sea levels rise by 15.8 inches.

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Sea Level Rise 'Locking In' Quickly, Cities Threatened

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Luis Miguel Goitizolo

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RE: ARE WE NOW IN THE END TIMES?
9/21/2013 10:04:53 AM

More Guns Equal More Deaths, Study Finds

LiveScience.com

Do guns make people safer?

Places with higher gun ownership rates also have higher firearms-related deaths, a new study finds.

In the study, published today (Sept. 20) in the American Journal of Medicine, researchers analyzed gun ownership rates, crime rates and deaths from firearms across 27 developed countries around the world.

"The U.S. has the highest gun ownership rates and also has the highest rate of firearm-related deaths," said study co-author Dr. Sripal Bangalore, a cardiologist at the New York University School of Medicine. [5 Biggest Gun Control Milestones in History]

Despite the prevalence of high-profile mass shootings, such as the recent Navy shipyard shooting, where the attacker showed signs of mental illness, the prevalence of mental illness in a society is only weakly correlated with gun-related deaths.

Contentious issue

Gun rights advocates argue that having more guns in society makes people safer by deterring crime and allowing law-abiding citizens to defend themselves against would-be attackers. Gun control proponents argue that guns lead to more violence, not less.

Past studies have shown that gun owners are much likelier to be shot with their own weapons than they are to use it to thwart a crime. Other research has shown that gun laws are linked with lower rates of firearms deaths.

But teasing apart causal factors can be difficult: After all, more people may feel compelled to purchase a gun in a crime-ridden neighborhood, but that doesn't mean the guns themselves cause the violence. And states that pass gun control measures may simply have different cultures than those that enshrine gun rights in their laws.

Cross-country analysis

After several high profile shootings, such as the Newtown, Conn., school shootings, Bangalore and his colleagues wanted to see whether guns actually make people safer, or whether inadequately treated mental health issues played a role.

The team looked at the fraction of people who owned guns across 27 developed nations, including the United States, Switzerland, Finland, Australia and Japan.

Gun ownership was lowest in Japan and highest, by far, in the United States.

Gun ownership rates were strongly correlated with higher death rates from firearms.

In contrast, the incidence of major depression was only weakly linked to firearms-related deaths. (Data on other conditions such as schizophrenia were not widely available.)

And crime didn't seem to be correlated at all with gun ownership rates. That suggests purchasing a gun doesn't have an effect on overall crime rates, which include both violent and non-violent crimes.

"We can show that guns don't make a nation safer," Bangalore told LiveScience.

The study "provides some very convincing evidence that firearms-related deaths are very strongly correlated with prevalence of guns," said Dr. Eric Fleegler, a health services researcher at Boston Children's Hospital, who was not involved in the study.

Causation difficult

Still, it's difficult to say that gun ownership actually causes more gun violence.

The current study lumped together suicides and homicides.

And countries are very different.

"There are many factors that could influence both gun ownership and homicide rates," said Dr. Michael Siegel, a community health researcher at Boston University School of Public Health, who has separately found that states with more guns have higher murder rates.

One clue for causality comes from Australia, where tighter restrictions on gun ownership were instituted in 1996 and gun-related deaths fell dramatically, Bangalore said.

But the only way to untangle the links between gun ownership and violence is to do studies that track both over time, and that research has been limited because the Centers for Diseases Control and Prevention and the National Institutes of Health don't fund gun violence research, Siegel told LiveScience.

Follow Tia Ghose on Twitter and Google+. Follow LiveScience @livescience, Facebook & Google+. Original article on LiveScience.


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