6/02/08
"Evangelicals feel like they have been served their divorce
papers," said one major Evangelical leader in an interview on
Saturday. "They don't know exactly what they are going to do," he told me,
adding, "There are going to be meetings all over the country in the next few
weeks to decide our strategy."
Events of the past few months are coalescing
to convince Evangelicals, and some conservative Catholics, that the GOP has
grown hostile to religious conservatives:
It didn't help that one week after the
decision on gay marriage in California, McCain appeared on The Ellen DeGeneres Show. McCain
did say what religious conservatives wanted to hear: "I just believe in
the unique status of marriage between a man and a woman, and I know that we have
a respectful disagreement on that issue," but that may not matter. Religious
conservatives, outraged at the California decision, didn't pay attention to what
McCain said. What they saw was McCain choosing to go on the television
show of a woman who is about to marry another woman. (DeGeneres will soon
marry her girlfriend, Portia de Rossi.) Government interference in religious liberty
combined with government hostility toward the traditional family is precisely
what started the Religious Right in the first place. The Carter administration's attack on the
non-profit status of Christian schools in the South was the last straw for
Evangelical pastors, who began their political organizing in the late 1970s. Add
to that the counter-attack on the ERA and the post-Roe anti-abortion
movement, and Catholics and Evangelicals suddenly merged into what became known
as the "Religious Right."
Since the 1980 election of Ronald Reagan, the
religious conservative vote has belonged to the GOP. When these voters were
dispirited in 1992 and 1996, the Republicans lost the White House.
Like Evangelicals, Catholic voters are showing
less affection for the GOP, primarily because of dissatisfaction with the Iraq
War. Unlike 2004, when the war did not affect the Catholic voter, Catholics are
now much more aware of Vatican criticism leveled at the U.S. invasion and
occupation. As Douglas Belkin reported in Thursday's Wall Street
Journal, "Conservative Catholics now appear to be more concerned about the
economy and the war in Iraq, and less motivated by abortion, the issue that has
long kept the voting bloc aligned with Republicans."
It must have been a great relief to John
McCain and the Republican Party that Benedict XVI did not underscore his
differences with President Bush on Iraq during his recent visit.
McCain faces a tall challenge. Evangelicals
feel rejected, and faithful Catholics are confused. Evangelicals have seen
McCain ask for their endorsement and then give it back to them. At the same
time, many Catholics wonder if McCain's support of embryonic stem cell research
weakens his pro-life position enough to justify a vote against him on the basis
of the Iraq War.
Obama's weakness with Catholic voters may help ameliorate
McCain's concern about Catholic discontent over Iraq. But will the Catholic
Democrats who voted for Clinton abandon party loyalties and support McCain?
Obama's extremism on abortion, along with his support for gay
marriage, may remind them of why they voted for Reagan (and even Bush). It's doubtful, however, that McCain can depend
on moderate Republicans and Democrats -- many of whom are blue-collar Catholics
-- to win in November. Just as the Religious Right emerged quickly to
support Reagan's candidacy, it may just as quickly decide to challenge the GOP
in some fashion before the election.
As another Evangelical leader told me, "We
should not be led by Republicans -- we are primarily a spiritual movement and
should be influencing them." Right now, the generals and the ground troops of
the Religious Right feel as if their influence has lost. At the moment, they're
looking for a clear signal from the McCain campaign that he is going to make it
a priority to protect marriage.
At present, McCain opposes a federal constitutional
amendment banning gay marriage -- he prefers states to make their own decision
on the issue. A decision by McCain, in response to the threat posed by the
California decision, to back a constitutional amendment would electrify
religious conservatives. Without a gesture of this sort, the McCain
candidacy will not have the enthusiastic backing of voters who have provided the
winning difference for the GOP over the past 30 years, and will face the
prospect of a highly energized Obama campaign.
|