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Luis Miguel Goitizolo

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RE: ARE WE NOW IN THE END TIMES?
10/29/2016 12:28:21 AM

Professor who’s predicted 30 years of presidential elections correctly is doubling down on a Trump win

Professor Allan Lichtman, author of "The Keys to the White House," explains why his keys still point to a Democratic loss in the 2016 presidential election – and a Donald Trump victory. (Peter Stevenson/The Washington Post)

Last month, the man who's tried to turn vote prediction into a science predicted a Trump win.

Allan J. Lichtman, distinguished professor of history at American University, said Democrats would not be able to hold on to the White House.

In the intervening weeks, the campaign was rocked by a series of events. The release of the Access Hollywood tape obtained by The Washington Post was followed by accusations from a growing list of women of various improprieties on Trump's part, ranging from verbal abuse and harassment to outright sexual assault. Fix founder Chris Cillizza named Trump the winner of the inauspicious “Worst Week in Washington” award for four weeks running. At the same time, WikiLeaks released internal Clinton campaign emails, and the U.S. government flatly accused the Kremlin of being involved. And let's not forget those presidential debates.

So plenty has changed. But one thing hasn't: Lichtman, author of“Predicting the Next President: The Keys to the White House 2016,” is sticking with his prediction of a Trump victory.

If you aren't familiar with his somewhat unique prediction system, here are the basics: The keys to the White House, he says, are a set of 13 true/false statements. If six of them are false, the incumbent party loses the presidency. His system has correctly predicted the winner of the popular vote in every U.S. presidential election since 1984. Our first interview went into the keys more in-depth, and in September he said the keys were settled enough to make an official prediction of a Democratic loss and a Trump win.

The Fix caught up with Lichtman again to find out more. Our conversation is below, edited only for length and clarity.

THE FIX: Readers can learn a lot about the keys from the previous interviews we’ve done, but let’s remind people of the quick version: Your system for predicting the outcome of the election stays away from polls, electoral college maps and candidates’ histories in favor of a more broad historical evaluation.

LICHTMAN: The 13 keys are a historically based prediction system that were founded on the study of every presidential election from 1860 to 1980, and I’ve since used them prospectively to predict, often well ahead of time, the results of all eight elections from 1984 to 2012. The keys basically assess the strength and performance of the party holding the White House. There are 13 keys. An answer of true on these true/false questions always favors the reelection of the party in power. And if six or more of the 13 keys are false, the party in power, the party holding the White House, is the predicted loser — any six or more.

The first time we talked, you weren’t willing to predict a winner. Take me through that process and how you came to predict a Trump win.

Early on, the keys were inconclusive. That is, remember, six or more and the party in power is the predicted loser. And for some time, there were five keys out against the incumbent Democrats.

And since that time, as we discussed last time, that sixth key has turned against the Democrats, and that is the third party key, and that is based on an assessment that you would expect the third party candidate, in this case the Libertarian candidate, Gary Johnson, to get five percent or more of the vote. That’s a big sign of discontent with the party holding the White House. And so, again on the knife edge, you had exactly six fatal keys against the incumbent Democrats.

And remember — this was before the sex tape — this was before any of those allegations or other things emerged.

A lot of people would look at the events of the last month — the Access Hollywood tape obtained by The Washington Post, the presidential debates and the shifts in polling — and say, this has got to effect the keys somehow.

Donald Trump’s severe and unprecedented problems bragging about sexual assault and then having ten or more women coming out and saying, “Yes, that’s exactly what you did” — this is without precedent. But it didn’t change a key.

By the narrowest of possible margins, the keys still point to a Trump victory. However, there are two major qualifications. And I’m not a hedger, and I’ve never qualified before in 30 years of predictions.

Qualification number one: It takes six keys to count the party in power out, and they have exactly six keys. And one key could still flip, as I recognized last time — the third party key, that requires Gary Johnson to get at least five percent of the popular vote. He could slip below that, which would shift the prediction.

The second qualification is Donald Trump. We have never seen someone who is broadly regarded as a history-shattering, precedent-making, dangerous candidate who could change the patterns of history that have prevailed since the election of Abraham Lincoln in 1860.

Your critics might say that if Secretary Clinton wins the election, or somehow the keys shift and the prediction changes, then what was the point of a prediction in the first place? Is it possible you’ll have to reevaluate the keys if they don’t turn out to be right this time?

I do think this election has the potential to shatter the normal boundaries of American politics and reset everything, including, perhaps, reset the keys to the White House. Look, I’m not a psychic. I don’t look at a crystal ball. The keys are based on history. And they’re based on a lot of changes in history, they’re very robust. But there can come a time when change is so cataclysmic that it changes the fundamentals of how we do our politics, and this election has the potential — we don’t know yet, but it has the potential.

Peter Stevenson is the video editor for The Fix, where he covers national politics.
Follow @PeterWStevenson



(The Washington Post)

"Choose a job you love and you will not have to work a day in your life" (Confucius)

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Luis Miguel Goitizolo

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RE: ARE WE NOW IN THE END TIMES?
10/29/2016 10:18:42 AM

Get Ready For Civil Unrest: Survey Finds That Most Americans Are Concerned About Election Violence

"Choose a job you love and you will not have to work a day in your life" (Confucius)

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Luis Miguel Goitizolo

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RE: ARE WE NOW IN THE END TIMES?
10/29/2016 10:36:42 AM

2006 Audio Emerges of Hillary Clinton Proposing Rigging Palestine Election

Unearthed tape: 'We should have made sure that we did something to determine who was going to win'

By

Hillary Clinton listens to Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump speak during the third U.S. presidential debate at the Thomas & Mack Center on October 19, 2016 in Las Vegas, Nevada.

Hillary Clinton listens to Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump speak during the third U.S. presidential debate at the Thomas & Mack Center on October 19, 2016 in Las Vegas, Nevada. - Photo: Drew Angerer/Getty Images

On September 5, 2006, Eli Chomsky was an editor and staff writer for the Jewish Press, and Hillary Clinton was running for a shoo-in re-election as a U.S. senator. Her trip making the rounds of editorial boards brought her to Brooklyn to meet the editorial board of the Jewish Press.

The tape was never released and has only been heard by the small handful of Jewish Press staffers in the room. According to Chomsky, his old-school audiocassette is the only existent copy and no one has heard it since 2006, until today when he played it for the Observer.

The tape is 45 minutes and contains much that is no longer relevant, such as analysis of the re-election battle that Sen. Joe Lieberman was then facing in Connecticut. But a seemingly throwaway remark about elections in areas controlled by the Palestinian Authority has taken on new relevance amid persistent accusations in the presidential campaign by Clinton’s Republican opponent Donald Trump that the current election is “rigged.”

Speaking to the Jewish Press about the January 25, 2006, election for the second Palestinian Legislative Council (the legislature of the Palestinian National Authority), Clinton weighed in about the result, which was a resounding victory for Hamas (74 seats) over the U.S.-preferred Fatah (45 seats).

“I do not think we should have pushed for an election in the Palestinian territories. I think that was a big mistake,” said Sen. Clinton. “And if we were going to push for an election, then we should have made sure that we did something to determine who was going to win.”


Chomsky recalls being taken aback that “anyone could support the idea—offered by a national political leader, no less—that the U.S. should be in the business of fixing foreign elections.”

Some eyebrows were also raised when then-Senator Clinton appeared to make a questionable moral equivalency.

Eli Chomsky participated in an interview with Hillary Clinton at the Jewish Press in 2006.

Eli Chomsky, photographed today at the Observer offices, participated in an interview with Hillary Clinton at the Jewish Press in 2006. - Observer

Regarding capturing combatants in war—the June capture of IDF soldier Gilad Shalit by Hamas militants who came across the Gaza border via an underground tunnel was very much front of mind—Clinton can be heard on the tape saying, “And then, when, you know, Hamas, you know, sent the terrorists, you know, through the tunnel into Israel that killed and captured, you know, kidnapped the young Israeli soldier, you know, there’s a sense of like, one-upsmanship, and in these cultures of, you know, well, if they captured a soldier, we’ve got to capture a soldier.”

Equating Hamas, which to this day remains on the State Department’s official list of Foreign Terrorist Organizations, with the armed forces of a close American ally was not what many expected to hear in the Jewish Press editorial offices, which were then at Third Avenue and Third Street in Brooklyn. (The paper’s office has since moved to the Boro Park section of Brooklyn.) The use of the phrase “these cultures” is also a bit of a head-scratcher.

According to Chomsky, Clinton was “gracious, personable and pleasant throughout” the interview, taking about an hour to speak to, in addition to himself, managing editor Jerry Greenwald, assistant to the publisher Naomi Klass Mauer, counsel Dennis Rapps and senior editor Jason Maoz.

Another part of the tape highlights something that was relatively uncontroversial at the time but has taken on new meaning in light of the current campaign—speaking to leaders with whom our country is not on the best terms. Clinton has presented a very tough front in discussing Russia, for example, accusing Trump of unseemly ardor for strongman Vladimir Putin and mocking his oft-stated prediction that as president he’d “get along” with Putin.

Chomsky is heard on the tape asking Clinton what now seems like a prescient question about Syria, given the disaster unfolding there and its looming threat to drag the U.S., Iran and Russia into confrontation.

“Do you think it’s worth talking to Syria—both from the U.S. point [of view] and Israel’s point [of view]?”

Clinton replied, “You know, I’m pretty much of the mind that I don’t see what it hurts to talk to people. As long as you’re not stupid and giving things away. I mean, we talked to the Soviet Union for 40 years. They invaded Hungary, they invaded Czechoslovakia, they persecuted the Jews, they invaded Afghanistan, they destabilized governments, they put missiles 90 miles from our shores, we never stopped talking to them,” an answer that reflects her mastery of the facts but also reflects a willingness to talk to Russia that sounds more like Trump 2016 than Clinton 2016.

This is how news used to be collected.

This is how news used to be collected. - Observer

Shortly after, she said, “But if you say, ‘they’re evil, we’re good, [and] we’re never dealing with them,’ I think you give up a lot of the tools that you need to have in order to defeat them…So I would like to talk to you [the enemy] because I want to know more about you. Because if I want to defeat you, I’ve got to know something more about you. I need different tools to use in my campaign against you. That’s my take on it.”

A final bit of interest to the current campaign involves an articulation of phrases that Trump has accused Clinton of being reluctant to use. Discussing the need for a response to terrorism, Clinton said, “I think you can make the case that whether you call it ‘Islamic terrorism’ or ‘Islamo-fascism,’ whatever the label is we’re going to give to this phenomenon, it’s a threat. It’s a global threat. To Europe, to Israel, to the United States…Therefore we need a global response. It’s a global threat and it needs a global response. That can be the, sort of, statement of principle…So I think sometimes having the global vision is a help as long as you realize that underneath that global vision there’s a lot of variety and differentiation that has to go on.”

It’s not clear what she means by a global vision with variety and differentiation, but what’s quite clear is that the then-senator, just five years after her state was the epicenter of the September 11 attacks, was comfortable deploying the phrase “Islamic terrorism” and the even more strident “Islamo-fascism,” at least when meeting with the editorial board of a Jewish newspaper.

In an interview before the Observer heard the tape, Chomsky told the Observer that Clinton made some “odd and controversial comments” on the tape. The irony of a decade-old recording emerging to feature a candidate making comments that are suddenly relevant to voters today was not lost on Chomsky, who wrote the original story at the time. Oddly enough, that story, headlined “Hillary Clinton on Israel, Iraq and Terror,” is no longer available on jewishpress.com and even a short summary published on the Free Republic site offers a broken link that can no longer surface the story.

“I went to my bosses at the time,” Chomsky told the Observer. “The Jewish Press had this mindset that they would not want to say anything offensive about anybody—even a direct quote from anyone—in a position of influence because they might need them down the road. My bosses didn’t think it was newsworthy at the time. I was convinced that it was and I held onto it all these years.”

Disclosure: Donald Trump is the father-in-law of Jared Kushner, publisher of Observer Media.

(observer.com)


"Choose a job you love and you will not have to work a day in your life" (Confucius)

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Luis Miguel Goitizolo

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RE: ARE WE NOW IN THE END TIMES?
10/29/2016 1:59:15 PM
US troops heading to front of new Cold War with Putin


Poland militia 'ready for anything' 02:38

(CNN) With US and Russia engaged what some call a new Cold War, some 900 US troops are about to find themselves on its most dangerous front.

The US and NATO confirmed this week that the US will lead a multinational battalion in northeast Poland beginning in April 2017, a strategically crucial location that would put them in the center of hostilities should an armed clash between NATO and Russia break out.
    Secretary of Defense Ash Carter told reporters Wednesday that the American soldiers will be headquartered in Orzysz, Poland, a town which lies only miles from the most likely target of a possible Russian attack against NATO, according to military analysts.
    Carter made the remarks while speaking after a meeting of NATO defense ministers in Brussels. He called the unit a "battle-ready battalion task force."
    Russia was quick to criticize the announcement.
    In a series of tweets, Russia's ambassador to NATO, Alexander Grushko, called the deployments "confrontational schemes of military building up in areas along our borders" and threatened retaliation.
    "NATO countries understand that these actions will not remain without a response from our side," he said.
    The Russian Defense Ministry announced Monday that about 600 paratroopers from Russia and Belarus conducted a joint exercise near the town of Brest on the Polish-Belarusian border and only miles from where the new troops will be based.
    The Suwalki Gap, where the US forces will be located, is a thin stretch of about 60 miles of Polish territory that borders fellow NATO ally Lithuania. It is also bordered on both sides by Russia's European enclave Kaliningrad and close military ally Belarus.
    "It's a small sliver of land, which, if seized, would allow the Russians to cut-off the Baltic states from the rest of the NATO alliance," Magnus Nordenman, director of the transatlantic security initiative at the Atlantic Council, told CNN.
    He added that such an action, combined with the sophisticated anti-aircraft and anti-ship missiles Russia has been deploying to Kaliningrad, would make US and NATO efforts to reinforce and defend its Baltic allies extremely difficult.
    "One can assume it is in the Russian attack plan simply by looking at a map," he added. "Russia is clearly developing a strategy for keeping the US and NATO out in the event of a crisis."
    A NATO official told CNN Friday that the Suwalki Gap did indeed feature in the alliance's defensive plans but would not elaborate further.
    The Baltic States, which include Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania, will also receive NATO battalionsled by the UK, Canada and Germany. These countries are particularly concerned about Russian aggression, especially after Moscow's 2014 invasion and annexation of Crimea.
    Russia's "militarization and aggressive actions in the region creates new tensions," Lithuanian Defense Minister Juozas Olekas, told CNN's Nic Robertson Thursday.
    The new deployments are part of NATO's "Enhanced Forward Presence" program, a NATO effort to reassure member countries and deter any Russian offensive actions.
    "Russia has been willing to use military force against neighbors," NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said Wednesday. "We have seen that in Georgia and we have seen it in Ukraine with the illegal annexation of Crimea and the continued destabilization of Eastern Ukraine. So, therefore, NATO has to respond."
    Russian and Belarusian paratroopers conduct a military exercise near the border with Poland in October 2016
    Earlier this month, Russia reportedly deployed nuclear-capable Iskander missiles to Kaliningrad, a move Polish Foreign Minister Witold Waszczykowski called "a massive strengthening of the Kaliningrad garrison," adding that the "missiles could reach well into the significant part of Polish territory."
    "We have adapted, we have responded, to the increased Russian military presence close to NATO borders," Stoltenberg told reporters on Thursday.
    The US unit due to be stationed in the Suwalki Gap and joined by two companies of troops from UK and Romania is miniscule compared to the American military's effort to deter the Soviet Union during the Cold War.
    During America's geopolitical stand-off with the Soviet Union, some 300,000 US troops and tanks were deployed to Germany in order to defend the strategic Fulda Gap, an area of lowlands thought to be the likeliest route for a Soviet tank invasion of Western Europe.
    "There is simply no way you can compare four NATO battalions and approximately 4,000 forces to 300,000 US forces at the height of the Cold War," Heather Conley of the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington told CNN.
    Nordenman thinks that the US and NATO feel that the battalion offers some substantial benefits despite its small size. "In the event of a crisis, it would allow American reinforcements to link-up with the US forces already there," he said.
    Secretary of Defense Ash Carter said the US contingent will include a headquarters element, Stryker armored vehicles, an artillery battery, anti-tank capabilities, explosive ordnance disposal and engineering from a squadron based in Vilseck, Germany.
    He also revealed that the US soldiers will be under the tactical control of a Polish brigade.
    Nordenman said the troops are an "important political signal for the US and NATO," adding that they will "allow the US and its NATO allies to train on terrain that they would have to fight on" in the event of an armed conflict with Russia.
    While he called the new deployments a "good signal and good demonstration of our solidarity," Olekas, the Lithuanian defense chief, told CNN that they were not sufficient, adding that Russian President Vladimir Putin only understood "power."
    Nordenman said the US was selected to lead the defense of the most strategic location at the request of Poland. He noted that Poland has become a leader of NATO's eastern members and the Polish government sought America's participation given its status as the most powerful member of the alliance.
    Poland and Estonia are two of the only five NATO members that spend the recommended two percent of GDP on defense. Latvia and Lithuania plan to meet that target by 2018. The American defense secretary emphasized that the US would take additional steps to beef up its eastern presence as part of the $3.4 billion European Reassurance Initiative.
    According to US defense officials, this will include some 4,000 US troops arriving in western Poland in January. These forces will then proceed to rotate through seven other eastern NATO members.

    (CNN)


    "Choose a job you love and you will not have to work a day in your life" (Confucius)

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    Luis Miguel Goitizolo

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    RE: ARE WE NOW IN THE END TIMES?
    10/29/2016 2:19:24 PM

    Stuff that matters


    SCROTAL ANNIHILATION

    Lake Titicaca has 10,000 problems and dead scrotum frogs are all of them.

    These critically endangered frogs — also called Titicaca water frogs — are covered in folds of wrinkled skin that make them look like, well … you know. And they are dying in droves on the shores of this South American lake.

    The culprit? Probably pollution. Roberto Elias, Peru program manager at Denver Zoo, told the Guardian that toxins were the most likely cause of death, pointing to previous studies that showed high levels of heavy metals in the lake from legal and illegal mining operations.

    Although there is no official tally of the number of frogs left, ICUN reports that the scrotum frog population has declined about 80 percent over the last few years around the lake.

    Amphibians are notoriously susceptible to disease and changes in their environment, pollution-related or otherwise. In fact, a third of all amphibians are threatened or already extinct. The loss of the scrotum frogs could be just the tip of the, um, lily pad.

    "Choose a job you love and you will not have to work a day in your life" (Confucius)

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