2126-ARE WE NOW IN THE END TIMES? | View Thread

WASHINGTON (AP) -- Russia's suddenly escalating financial crisis risks spilling beyond its borders and endangering parts of the global economy.

With economies in Europe, Japan, China and Latin America already ailing, fresh threats have emerged from Russia's shriveled currency, its move to dramatically boost interest rates, the damage from plummeting oil prices and Western sanctions over Russia's action in Ukraine.

The alarming 10 percent drop in the ruble over the past two days has amplified the economic turmoil in Russia. Investors fear that Russia may default on its foreign debt obligations - a move that would inflict hundreds of billions in losses on lenders abroad.

Some analysts also worry that tensions will further escalate between Russia and the United States and its European allies that imposed the sanctions. The White House upped the pressure Tuesday when President Barack Obama committed to approving additional sanctions.

Few see President Vladimir Putin as backing down.

"I do not expect him to blink," said Ian Bremmer, president of the Eurasia Group, a political risk and consulting firm.

The financial consequences for the United States could be modest because of Russia's diminished economic stature. Yet the geopolitical risk could ripple across continents.

Russia began the year as the world's eighth-largest economy, with a gross domestic product of $2.1 trillion, according to the World Bank. A single ruble is now worth less than two pennies, having lost about 50 percent of its value against the dollar since January.

This means Russia's GDP has been halved in dollar terms, putting it roughly on par with Mexico and Indonesia as the world's 15th largest economy.

Before financial markets opened Tuesday, the Bank of Russia hiked its key rate to protect the ruble's value. In doing so, the bank hopes investors will find it more financially appealing to keep their money in Russia. Nevertheless, the ruble fell in trading to close Tuesday at 80 rubles to a dollar, compared with 65 on Monday. It recovered in late trading to a rate of 68 to the dollar.

Russian officials have already projected that their economy will shrink nearly 5 percent next year. That will, by extension, affect its trading partners in Europe and Asia.

Russia imports about $324 billion in goods annually, primarily from China, Germany, Ukraine, Belarus and Japan. Those imports have grown costlier because of the falling ruble.

One potential global risk comes from Russia seeking to retaliate against the sanctions by stepping-up cyberattacks against U.S. targets and asserting itself more aggressively in Ukraine and other nearby countries, Bremmer said.

On Tuesday, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov argued in a French TV interview that the sanctions were intended to end Putin's regime.

Unlike during the previous ruble crash in 1998, Russia is unlikely to receive help from the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank, organizations backed by the United States and its European allies that contend that Russia has funneled direct support to rebels fighting in Ukraine.

Isolated and alone, Russia might then choose to default on some of its debt.

"Our deepest fear has been - and still is - that putting Mr. Putin in a `nothing-to-lose' situation removes any constraint he might have had against reneging on his foreign debt obligations, which Russian borrowers probably cannot pay off or service now," writes Carl Weinberg, chief economist at High Frequency Economics. Foreign lenders would have to brace for $670 billion in losses.

This possibility has sparked an investor retreat from Russia. But that pullback has also caused investors to flee other emerging market currencies that are deemed risky. They include Turkey, Brazil, South Africa and Indonesia, noted John Higgins, chief markets economist at Capital Economics.

Higgins said that oil prices are the central factor that will determine "the depth of Russia's problems and the consequences for the global financial markets." Should oil continue to collapse, the financial and geopolitical turbulence in Russia will worsen.

U.S. crude oil markets rose 2 cents to close at $55.93 a barrel Tuesday, while the international counterpart dipped below $60 a barrel for the first time since May 2009. Oil prices have been cut in half over the past six months.

Analysts generally attribute the plunge in oil prices to rising supplies and slowing demand as Europe and Japan falter and China's growth weakens. But as the price drops further, fears are intensifying that the decline is pointing to slower growth than many analysts had expected, said David Joy, chief market strategist at Ameriprise.

That could make the situation for Russia even more dire.

"Oil hasn't found a bottom yet, so the pain is only going to get worse as the price of oil continues to fall," Joy said.

---

AP Economics Writers Christopher S. Rugaber and Paul Wiseman contributed to this report.

Luis Miguel 1162 61587 Lima	RE: ARE WE NOW IN THE END TIMES? 12/18/2014 1:18:06 AM
	Pentagon confirms military buildup along Russian borders for ‘peace and stability’ Published time: December 17, 2014 03:32 AFP Photo / Janek Skarzynski The Pentagon has confirmed the military buildup along Russia’s borders to ensure long-term “peace and stability” in the region. Earlier Moscow accused NATO of a sharp increase in air activity and intelligence flights in the border zone. Replying to RIA Novosti’s query on the increased number of NATO flights around Russia's borders, a Pentagon representative told the news agency that the military presence of the alliance has increased, but all operations are carried out under utmost “transparency.” The current efforts of the US European Command, the Pentagon official said, are in line with Operation Atlantic Resolve and demonstrate American “commitment to the collective security of NATO, the long-term peace and stability in the region”, particularly in the light of Russian “interference” in Ukraine. The official added that this includes among other measures, an increase in “air, and land, sea presence,”as well as holding military drills. US Operation Atlantic Resolve comprises all US efforts to support their NATO allies and partners in Europe, which translates to persistent presence of land forces in Poland and the Baltic region as well as holding naval drills in the Black Sea. Portuguese Air Force fighter F-16 (R) and Canadian Air Force fighter CF-18 Hornet patrol over Baltics air space, from the Zokniai air base near Siauliai. Lithuania. (Reuters / Ints Kalnins) Russia’s relations with NATO deteriorated dramatically after the alliance accused Moscow of destabilizing the situation in conflict-torn Ukraine and condemned Crimea’s reunification with Russia in March. The Pentagon’s comments came after Lieutenant-General Mikhail Mizintsev, head of the Russian Defense Ministry’s joint military command center told Bloomberg news that NATO's presence in Eastern Europe is becoming a concern for Moscow. “The Russian Defense Ministry leadership has repeatedly expressed its concerns over the significant increase of NATO military activity near the Russian borders,” Mizintsev said. The General was quick to point out that NATO’s flights have doubled to about 3,000 this year. Mizintsev told Bloomberg that foreign jets were flying in “dangerous proximity” to Russian long-range military aircraft at least on 55 occasions at a distance of less than 100 meters, in 2013-14. Russia’s missions were “as risky as NATO aircraft flights near the Russian border can be considered risky,” Mizintsev said. Lt. General Michail Mizintsev. Image by Defence Ministy Furthermore the lack of “any mutual exchange of information,” has ruined the trust between the alliance and Russian military command as Russian fighters flew more than 300 missions in response to NATO planes approaching the country’s borders. “All achievements in the field of trust-building and voluntary transparency that NATO and Russia have formed over the years have ceased,” the general warned, as he challenged NATO’s claims on the number of Russian intercept missions. Mizintsev said that NATO jets escorted Russian planes 140 times in 2014, a 70 percent increase on the previous year, but not 400 as the alliance claims. All Russian fighter missions, Mizintsev stressed were“in strict compliance with international rules.” The Russian general also warned of a growing concern of NATO ships in the Black Sea. READ MORE: NATO is not Russia’s enemy – Lavrov to French media On the diplomatic front, earlier in the day, in an interview with the French media, Russia's Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, explained what role the alliance plays in Russia’s military doctrine. “What [Russia’s military doctrine] says is that the security risks for Russia, among other things, are NATO expansion to the East and the movement of military infrastructure of NATO closer to the Russian borders – not NATO itself, but its militarized movement to the East is considered by the Russian military doctrine as a security risk and threat for Russia,” he said. READ MORE: Russian military completes rapid-deployment drills in Kaliningrad Tuesday's NATO-Moscow exchanges follow Russia’s recent massive surprise drill in the Kaliningrad region conducted to test the combat readiness of some 9,000 troops and 642 vehicles, including tactical Iskander-M ballistic missile systems deployed from the mainland.
	"Choose a job you love and you will not have to work a day in your life" (Confucius)
	+1

Luis Miguel 1162 61587 Lima	RE: ARE WE NOW IN THE END TIMES? 12/18/2014 1:31:11 AM
	Dec 16, 5:27 PM EST RUSSIA'S SINKING ECONOMY BECOMING A GLOBAL THREAT BY JOSH BOAK AP ECONOMICS WRITER People wait to exchange their currency as signs advertise the exchange rates at a currency exchange office in Moscow, Russia, Tuesday, Dec. 16, 2014. The Russian ruble came under intense selling pressure Tuesday, falling at one point by a catastrophic 20 percent to a new historic low despite a massive pre-dawn interest rate hike from Russia's Central Bank. Russian officials were clearly rattled even though state television urged citizens not to panic.The top two figures indicate the spread on the dollar-ruble rate and the middle two figures indicate the euro-ruble rate, with the third showing the spread on the Ukrainian hryvnia-ruble rate. (AP Photo/Alexander Zemlianichenko) WASHINGTON (AP) -- Russia's suddenly escalating financial crisis risks spilling beyond its borders and endangering parts of the global economy. With economies in Europe, Japan, China and Latin America already ailing, fresh threats have emerged from Russia's shriveled currency, its move to dramatically boost interest rates, the damage from plummeting oil prices and Western sanctions over Russia's action in Ukraine. The alarming 10 percent drop in the ruble over the past two days has amplified the economic turmoil in Russia. Investors fear that Russia may default on its foreign debt obligations - a move that would inflict hundreds of billions in losses on lenders abroad. Some analysts also worry that tensions will further escalate between Russia and the United States and its European allies that imposed the sanctions. The White House upped the pressure Tuesday when President Barack Obama committed to approving additional sanctions. Few see President Vladimir Putin as backing down. "I do not expect him to blink," said Ian Bremmer, president of the Eurasia Group, a political risk and consulting firm. The financial consequences for the United States could be modest because of Russia's diminished economic stature. Yet the geopolitical risk could ripple across continents. Russia began the year as the world's eighth-largest economy, with a gross domestic product of $2.1 trillion, according to the World Bank. A single ruble is now worth less than two pennies, having lost about 50 percent of its value against the dollar since January. This means Russia's GDP has been halved in dollar terms, putting it roughly on par with Mexico and Indonesia as the world's 15th largest economy. Before financial markets opened Tuesday, the Bank of Russia hiked its key rate to protect the ruble's value. In doing so, the bank hopes investors will find it more financially appealing to keep their money in Russia. Nevertheless, the ruble fell in trading to close Tuesday at 80 rubles to a dollar, compared with 65 on Monday. It recovered in late trading to a rate of 68 to the dollar. Russian officials have already projected that their economy will shrink nearly 5 percent next year. That will, by extension, affect its trading partners in Europe and Asia. Russia imports about $324 billion in goods annually, primarily from China, Germany, Ukraine, Belarus and Japan. Those imports have grown costlier because of the falling ruble. One potential global risk comes from Russia seeking to retaliate against the sanctions by stepping-up cyberattacks against U.S. targets and asserting itself more aggressively in Ukraine and other nearby countries, Bremmer said. On Tuesday, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov argued in a French TV interview that the sanctions were intended to end Putin's regime. Unlike during the previous ruble crash in 1998, Russia is unlikely to receive help from the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank, organizations backed by the United States and its European allies that contend that Russia has funneled direct support to rebels fighting in Ukraine. Isolated and alone, Russia might then choose to default on some of its debt. "Our deepest fear has been - and still is - that putting Mr. Putin in a `nothing-to-lose' situation removes any constraint he might have had against reneging on his foreign debt obligations, which Russian borrowers probably cannot pay off or service now," writes Carl Weinberg, chief economist at High Frequency Economics. Foreign lenders would have to brace for $670 billion in losses. This possibility has sparked an investor retreat from Russia. But that pullback has also caused investors to flee other emerging market currencies that are deemed risky. They include Turkey, Brazil, South Africa and Indonesia, noted John Higgins, chief markets economist at Capital Economics. Higgins said that oil prices are the central factor that will determine "the depth of Russia's problems and the consequences for the global financial markets." Should oil continue to collapse, the financial and geopolitical turbulence in Russia will worsen. U.S. crude oil markets rose 2 cents to close at $55.93 a barrel Tuesday, while the international counterpart dipped below $60 a barrel for the first time since May 2009. Oil prices have been cut in half over the past six months. Analysts generally attribute the plunge in oil prices to rising supplies and slowing demand as Europe and Japan falter and China's growth weakens. But as the price drops further, fears are intensifying that the decline is pointing to slower growth than many analysts had expected, said David Joy, chief market strategist at Ameriprise. That could make the situation for Russia even more dire. "Oil hasn't found a bottom yet, so the pain is only going to get worse as the price of oil continues to fall," Joy said. --- AP Economics Writers Christopher S. Rugaber and Paul Wiseman contributed to this report. © 2014 The Associated Press. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed. Learn more about our Privacy Policyand Terms of Use.
	"Choose a job you love and you will not have to work a day in your life" (Confucius)
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Luis Miguel 1162 61587 Lima	RE: ARE WE NOW IN THE END TIMES? 12/18/2014 10:01:06 AM
	Cuban exile community divided over Obama changes By LAURA WIDES-MUNOZ8 hours ago Reuters Videos Obama announces plan to normalize relations with Cuba Watch video MIAMI (AP) — President Barack Obama's surprise move to re-establish ties with Cuba was applauded by the men and women in a barbershop on Calle Ocho, the heart of Miami's Cuban exile community. Waitresses stopped serving coffee at the El Pub restaurant as Obama spoke on TV. One wiped a tear from her eye as she clasped her hands, overcome with emotion at changes no one believed would come. Only several dozen people attended Wednesday's hastily organized protests in Little Havana following the surprise announcement, a reflection of just how much the Cuban-American community has changed since the Cold War days when the U.S. began trying to isolate Cuba's communist government. Among them was John Hernandez, holding a "Fire Obama" sign. "We shouldn't do business with dictators. They're assassins. They have killed Americans before," said Hernandez, whose mother, father and sister fled Cuba in the 1960s before he was born in the U.S. "I feel disgraced." Local leaders and activists said they expected more protests in the coming days. Still, the muted initial reaction to Obama's vows to encourage bilateral flows of people, information and business while working with Congress to end the 50-year-old trade embargo was strikingly at odds with outdated ideas about what most Cuban-Americans want. U.S.-Cuba Timeline (video) It was long thought that no one could win Florida and become president without support from Cuban- Americans dead set against anything seen as supporting Cuban leaders Fidel and Raul Castro. And former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush, now mulling a presidential run, has called for a hard line on Cuba. But Obama won the state twice while promising to improve U.S.-Cuba relations, and he's already taken lesser steps that have drawn significant support from Cuban-Americans. That support comes in part from the thousands of Cubans who regularly travel between Havana and Miami thanks to Obama, and behind the scenes lobbying by Cuban-American business leaders who might have opposed such overtures in decades past. "We have long advocated for steps that improve human rights and opportunity for the Cuban people and which break the isolation between our two countries. The steps taken today by the governments of the U.S. and Cuba are historic," said Carlos Saladrigas, chairman of the business-backed Cuba Study Group. Most of the 2 million Cubans living in the United States call Florida home, and Little Havana has long been the go-to place for demonstrations aimed at isolating the Castros. Cuban artists who tried to perform in Miami were threatened; those who dared perform in Cuba were shunned. But such efforts have faded, and the latest protests tend to draw the same small group of activists. Recent polls have shown Cuban-American voters in Miami to be evenly divided on the embargo. And while Obama's announcements outraged some Cuban exiles, others were elated. "It's another betrayal not only of the Cuban people but of the American people," said businesswoman Remedios Diaz-Oliver, a board member of the U.S.-Cuba Democracy PAC that lobbies for a hard line. "This is Bay of Pigs Two," she said, comparing it to the ill-fated U.S.-backed invasion of the island in 1961, when President John F. Kennedy failed to provide promised backup to Cuban exile fighters. But Daniel Lafuente, the 27-year-old founder of tech hub LAB Miami, said "this is like a new age. It has reinvigorated the talks surrounding U.S.-Cuba relations, and for me that's the more important thing." Lafuente grew up hearing his mother and grandfather talk of their exile. He watched the Arab Spring uprisings with dismay, thinking the U.S. and Cuba were frozen stuck. "Now there's going to be a greater enthusiasm for trying out new means of interacting economically, socially, culturally. It's a really big step. Cuba is back on the map," he said. Lafuente and most other Cuban-Americans remain strongly opposed to the Castros, but after so many years of heartbreak and strained expectations, they are less likely now to insist on trying to isolate their communist government. Younger generations and the more recently arrived tend to be more open to exchange and dialogue. Older exiles whose relatives were killed or imprisoned following the 1959 revolution are less likely to approve of a thaw. But there are exceptions at all ages: Cuban-born Raul Hernandez, 60, has lived in Miami for 35 years and has two brothers still in Cuba. Travel restrictions kept him from seeing his parents before they died. "I think the embargo has not been good for the Cuban people because the government never changed," he said. Ramon Saul Sanchez, who runs a group dedicated to helping new arrivals from Cuba, said Obama's "radical step" will force people in Florida who are passionate about Cuba to become more engaged. "This isn't a setback — it's actually a challenge" for an exile community accustomed to business as usual, he said. ___ Contributors include Gisela Salomon, Jennifer Kay, Kelli Kennedy and Tony Winton in Miami. View Gallery
	"Choose a job you love and you will not have to work a day in your life" (Confucius)
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