It's no surprise, in a new and turbulent system, to see new ventures and new conflicts. The outcome, of course is unpredictable; but I think it can be quite interesting to observe which new enterprises are born, which may appear in the future, how they are beginning to compete with each other and with existing businesses.
We see new actors in the world of communication also outside of the internet. Such as connectivity brokers, offering to companies and professional groups a service to find the best package in the growing, confusing complexity of competitive offerings in a newly "liberalized" market. One such enterprise was born recently in Italy; it's called Between and its website will be online.
In the net, "portals" are at war with each other and with the individual websites of companies. So far the conflict is mostly in the United States, but it will gradually spread in other markets. "Electronic commerce" is in its infancy, but there's a crowd of weird shadows around its crib; and it's hard to tell the benevolent fairies from the bloodthirsty witches.
Of course competition per se, fearsome as it may be, can be quite healthy. As long as it's open and clear, it can help the market to grow; and customers should benefit. But the scenario is hazy, and some of the waters are murky.
Are customers really free to pick and choose, or are they led by self-appointed guides where they may be the game and not the hunter? Is it better to trust the "portals" or other go-betweens, or to find a direct access to the sources?
Are the "portals" just offering organized information, or turning into brokers or dealers? Will the broad, general doorways prevail, or will specialized services provide better expertise in specific sectors?
The best solution, probably, would be to have a great deal of variety and diversity, leading to the survival of the most efficient (and reliable) competitors – and allowing customers to choose what route or service best suits their needs and inclinations. But there is, and will be, a confusing menagerie of bewildering mutants before the market takes an understandable and believable shape.
We are beginning to have doubts about the doorways that we thought we could trust. We hear complaints about search engines and information catalogs putting up front what maybe is not the best, but is more profitable for them. When a link is offered, we wonder: is it a genuine service to me, an informed opinion of a trusted source – or did someone pay to be linked? Why do some things appear a bit too often, and others become invisible?
The fact is that most online services don't, and can't, charge readers and visitors for their services. So they must be paid by someone else. That's fair as long as we understand how it works. But is it always as clear as it should be?
How many, of the multiplying new breeds, are planning for the long term and investing in the value of a customer franchise, based on good service and trust? How many are going for a quick gain at the expense of reliability?
"Intelligent agents" could gradually become powerhouses, "first stop" points of reference for an increasing variety of markets. For products or services available online or offline. We could see a totally new breed of information traders, gaining more and more leverage. They will be hard to classify, because they can take all sorts of different shapes. Offer broad generic services or cater for specialized or customized needs. Wedge brutal price wars (that could cross country borders) or set high standards of service and quality. The complexity could be quite confusing. The bind of trust, which is vital in any environment but even more so online, could be broken in several places. That could be dangerous, because we know that trust is built slowly and can be destroyed quickly.
I think the most effective medicine to keep the market healthy is a growing breed of educated and choosy customers; and aggressive services that really concentrate on giving them what they want – with a generous dose of high touch. There are countless books and essays on how to sell online. Maybe we need a few more on how to buy |