By Tony
Guerrera
The bubble is that
point in a tournament right before the money. In a large multitable
tournament, the bubble might start 10-15 places before the money. In
a small multitable tournament, the bubble might start somewhere around
5 places before the money. And in single table tournaments, the bubble
is usually considered to be one place before the money, though bubble-like
playing conditions typically begin when you’re two places away from
the money.
Bubble-like playing
conditions also occur at two other times: right before the final table
of a multitable tournament and right before a big jump in payouts. The
term “bubble-like playing conditions” is appropriate because play on
the bubble is unique. By being aware of the unique playing dynamic,
you’ll recognize prime opportunities to steal chips. And you’ll also
recognize situations with normally playable cards and position where
folding is best for your poker hands.
Bubble Dynamics
The driving force
behind the bubble’s unique playing dynamic is that nobody wants to be
eliminated on the bubble. For players with really short stacks, this
makes a lot of sense. If a player is two or more double-ups away from
being an average stack, his chances of taking a top pay spot are slim,
meaning that it’s usually best simply to sneak into the money and take
whatever payout he can. If a player is within two double-ups of having
an average stack, accumulating chips should generally be a priority;
however, players in this position also tend to avoid confrontations
that will send them to the rail during bubble play.
The bottom line:
players avoid skirmishes on the bubble. To take advantage: steal! At
this point in the tournament, players’ stacks are such that raising
to somewhere around 2.5 big blinds is usually sufficient enough to take
pots uncontested preflop. Whenever short or medium stacks are the only
players remaining behind you, raise provided that you have more chips
than them (you need more chips since fear of elimination is where your
increased fold equity comes from).
Don’t Invite Opponents
to Resteal
You won’t be the
only player aware of this changed dynamic. If you raise, and a very
large stack is behind you, the large stack may reraise because he assumes
that you’re most likely stealing and that you won’t want to risk being
eliminated on the bubble. Medium stacks not concerned with simply sneaking
into the money can pose this same problem.
In short, you should
be looking to add chips to your stack on the bubble. However, if you’re
not careful, it’s possible to squander valuable chips. In short: know
the default bubble dynamic, know that your deeply stacked opponents
know the default bubble dynamic, and look for short and medium stacks
who deviate from the default dynamic.
Tony
Guerrera is the author of Killer
Poker By The Numbers. Visit him online at http://www.killerpokerbythenumbers.com
