Two types of odds
are important in poker: card odds and payout odds. And payout odds can
be broken down into three categories: pot odds, implied odds, and reverse
implied odds. Understanding all these types of odds will help you make
sound decisions at the tables.
Card Odds
Card odds have to
do with hitting poker hands. Suppose you have a flush draw on the turn.
Not accounting for reads you may have on your opponents, there are 46
unknown cards in the deck, 9 of which give you a flush. The odds against
you hitting your flush are 37:9 (4.11:1).
To draw profitably,
your payout odds need to exceed your card odds. In this example, your
payout odds need to be at least $4.11:$1.
Pot Odds
Your pot odds are
the ratio of the amount of money in the pot to the amount of money you
need to call. Let’s take the flush draw example from above. Say the
pot is $400 going into the turn, and you have a single opponent who
bets $200. $400 + $200 = $600, so you are getting $600:$200 = $3:$1
pot odds.
Implied
Odds
Implied odds refer
to money that you’ll win on future betting rounds if you hit your draw.
Suppose that if you call the $200 and hit your draw, you’ll win $400
more on the river. If that’s the case, you’re receiving an additional
$400:$200 = $2:$1 on your preflop call. Accounting for implied odds,
you’re getting $5:$1 instead of $3:$1 on your money.
Reverse
Implied Odds
Of course, there’s
a chance that you hit your flush draw and still lose. Perhaps he hits
a better flush, or your flush out gives your opponent a boat or quads.
This means you’re actually getting less than $5:$1 on the money. The
precise adjustment for reverse implied odds depends heavily on your
opponents’ hand distributions and can take awhile to figure out precisely
(I remember the work I put in for some of the examples in Killer Poker
By The Numbers). Since you usually won’t know exactly how much your
opponents will bet anyway, just know that you should get a rough idea
of how much you stand to lose and roughly how often you’ll lose it.
Honestly
Assess All Situations
The two
biggest mistakes that people make when evaluating their payout odds
are:
1.) Assuming that
their implied odds are bigger than they truly are
2.) Neglecting to take reverse implied odds into account.
Being a pessimist
or an optimist won’t do you any good at the poker tables. Instead, be
a realist, and watch the profits roll in.
Tony
Guerrera is the author of Killer
Poker By The Numbers. Visit him online at http://www.killerpokerbythenumbers.com
