Dear Poker Player,
Warren Buffett is
one smart dude. And RICH.
He's the second
richest man in the WORLD... right behind Bill Gates. Forbes estimates
that his net worth is $40 BILLION.
(How's THAT for
a bankroll?)
What's interesting
about Buffett is that he made his fortune over a LONGGG period of time...
by consistently beating the stock market year after year after year.
He wasn't one of
those "overnight" dot-com billionaires.
He wasn't "lucky"
to be in the right place at the right time.
He didn't "invent"
some new technology that changed the world.
Nope... all he did
was invest and "pick winners" over and over. Since taking control of
Berkshire 40 years ago, Buffett has delivered a compound annual return
of 22%.
AND JUST BY DOING
THAT, he became the 2nd richest man alive.
OK-- so why am I
rambling on about 75-year old man who's good at investing?
The reason is because
I've realized that there are DOZENS of important parallels between the
STOCK MARKET and POKER.
Here are just a
few:
* The stock market
is often considered "gambling", due to its unpredictable nature... just
as POKER is often considered gambling, even though it's a SKILL game.
* The stock market
has a heavy emphasis on odds and mathematics... just like poker.
* The stock market
is predominately a male-driven industry... just like poker.
* The stock market
has PLENTY of up's and down's, and "streaks"... just like poker.
* And so on.
Of course, these
are "surface" similarities.
Now think about
the PSYCHOLOGY of poker and the stock market... and how they're often
EXACTLY THE SAME:
* In the stock market,
everyone dreams of buying that one MIRACLE STOCK that will go from $2
to $200 and make them rich...
In poker, everyone
has their "pipe dream" of winning a huge million-dollar tournament on
ESPN.
* When a stock tanks,
most investors FREAK OUT and immediately make several bad investment
decisions in a row. It's usually THESE decisions that hurt them the
most.
In poker, this
is known as "tilt". Bad beats cause some damage... but it's usually
the decisions you make AFTER the bad beats that cause you to lose the
game.
* Believe it or
not, most stock investors come out on the LOSING END over time... even
though the market has historically gone UP year after year.
Most poker players
end up losing over time also, despite all the "fish" out there to prey
on.
* And so on.
OK, so you get the
idea.
Lately I've been
reading a lot of books about the stock market... and especially about
Warren Buffett. (Hell, I need somewhere to invest all these poker winnings!)
Anyway, here's what's
REALLY interesting:
Warren Buffett's
INVESTMENT APPROACH is almost identical to the POKER STRATEGY I use
every day.
And it's the SAME
approach used by top poker pros to consistently win tournaments and
ring games...
Interesting, huh?
Of course, it makes
sense when you think about it.
If poker and investing
are similar, then the guys who beat the STOCK MARKET probably use the
same techniques as the guys who win at POKER.
And who better
to learn poker from than the "KING" of the stock market... and the 2nd
richest man in the world?
*** WARREN BUFFETT'S
WINNING APPROACH ***
Warren Buffett operates
on PRINCIPLES. He doesn't get caught up in "hype" or emotion.
Below are the five
MOST IMPORTANT principles that he follows... and how they relate to
your poker game.
PRINCIPLE 1: PATIENCE
IS KEY.
Patience, patience,
patience!
It's the number
one mistake that causes most poker players to lose... and it's one of
the "secrets" to Buffett's 22% annual returns.
Warren Buffett does
not make an investment unless he is absolutely 100% confident that it
will make him money.
That means he PASSES
UP a lot of great investment opportunities.
Warren Buffett has
said "no" to stocks that ended up increasing by 10,000%!
But more importantly...
he's passed up all those other stocks that LOOKED GOOD, but PLUMMETED
later.
The problem is,
us human beings are addicted to ACTION and MOVEMENT and EXCITEMENT.
We don't want to just sit around and WAIT.
But that's EXACTLY
what Buffett does...
He waits.
And waits.
And waits.
He KNOWS that sooner
or later, a GREAT opportunity will come up... and then he'll jump on
it.
It's the same way
with poker.
You've GOT to be
patient. We all want to "get in there" and make strong bets... bluff
out opponents... and take down lots of pots. We want ACTION.
BUT THAT'S NOT HOW
YOU DO IT.
You've got to sit
back... be patient... and WAIT.
Wait for good cards.
Wait for the PERFECT
time to bust the manic at the table.
Wait for the PERFECT
time to steal the blinds.
Wait for the PERFECT
time to bluff out an opponent.
Wait for the PERFECT
time to go all-in.
And then when you
DO make a move...
PRINCIPLE 2: MAINTAIN
A "LOW TURNOVER" PORTFOLIO OF JUST A FEW STOCKS.
Buffett insists
on keeping 10-20% turnover with his portfolio.
This means he generally
holds onto a stock for 5-10 years... AT LEAST. This is obviously OPPOSITE
of how most investors do it. Most investors are checking the tickers
every HOUR-- watching for the slightest indication of movement or news.
More importantly...
Buffett only invests in a FEW STOCKS AT A TIME.
Now THIS is crucial,
because it goes against everything you've ever learned.
Growing up, you
probably heard this advice a lot:
"Never put all your
eggs in one basket."
Right?
Well, Warren Buffett
does the OPPOSITE.
He puts all his
eggs in one basket... but... he chooses that basket VERY CAREFULLY!
You see, Buffett
believes that if you've done your homework and you're confident in your
decision, there's NO NEED to "diversify".
In fact, he believes
this is the ONLY REAL WAY to get rich in the stock market. Because if
you buy LOTS of stocks, some are doomed to go down... and that will
hurt your gains.
Now think how this
relates to poker.
In poker, most
players risk money on LOTS of pots, and try to get the best odds for
each one... maybe 55%, 60%, and the OCCASIONAL 70% or higher.
What PROFESSIONAL
poker players do is only play those OCCASIONAL pots with the best odds.
BUT, they risk more
chips when they do it...
So instead of risking
20% of your chip stack five times... you want to risk 90% of your chip
stack ONE time. But you choose that time VERY CAREFULLY!
For instance, let's
say the "average" poker player enters three pots where he feels the
odds are in his favor.
The three pots go
like this:
1.) He risks 1000
in chips with 60% odds.
2.) He risks 1000
in chips with 50% odds.
3.) He risks 1000
in chips with 60% odds.
Now... MATHEMATICALLY
speaking... there are EIGHT different ways these scenarios can go. They
are as follows (a win is designated with "W" and a loss with "L"):
1.) W-W-W
2.) W-W-L
3.) W-L-W
4.) W-L-L
5.) L-W-W
6.) L-W-L
7.) L-L-W
8.) L-L-L
If he wins all three,
he ends up with 3000 chips in profit.
If he wins two
but loses one, he ends up with just 1000 chips in profit.
If he LOSES two
but wins one, he ends up with 1000 chips in losses.
And he if loses
all three, he loses 3000 chips total.
Get it?
Now let me share
with you the PERCENTAGES of the above scenarios.
Watch out, this
may surprise you.
If you were to play
three pots as described above and risk 1000 chips for each one, and
do this exercise 100 times, here's what would happen:
18% of the time
you'd win 3,000 chips total.
42% of the time
you'd win 1,000 chips total.
32% of the time
you'd lose 1,000 chips total.
8% of the time you'd
lose 3,000 chips total.
Your "net average"
would be to PROFIT 400 CHIPS.
OK... that's the
"normal" approach.
Now let's look at
the WARREN BUFFETT approach.
Let's say you entered
just ONE pot and risked 3000 chips (instead of 1000) with 70% odds in
your favor.
Now watch what happens:
70% of the time
you'd win 3,000 chips total.
30% of the time
you'd lose 3,000 chips total.
Your "net average"
would be to PROFIT 1200 CHIPS.
That's TRIPLE the
results over time!
The key is to get
BETTER ODDS and RISK MORE.
I better interject
here that I do NOT recommend being one of those players who just sits
back, waits for the "nuts", and then goes all-in.
Not even close.
In fact, if you've
read my newsletters you know that I'm a very aggressive player who loves
to push action.
The KEY is that
I BUILD THIS IMAGE through techniques based on feeler bets, positioning,
and sensing weakness.
AND WHEN THE RIGHT
OPPORTUNITY COMES ALONG, I RISK AS MANY CHIPS AS I CAN!
I know that when
the odds are heavily in my favor, it's time to put my eggs in one basket
and go for it...
PRINCIPLE 3: THE
STOCK MARKET IS NOT ALWAYS RATIONAL OR "EFFICIENT".
There's a popular
stock market concept called, "Efficient Market Theory" (EMT).
Most of the world's
leading business schools teach this widely-accepted concept.
However...
Warren Buffett says
that the EMT is a bunch of hogwash!
He's actually gone
on record saying that part of him LOVES the fact that business schools
teach this theory: It makes things easier on him because his competition
doesn't know what they're doing!
Now... I'm not going
to argue whether the theory is right or wrong. It doesn't matter for
our discussion here.
What I find intriguing
is what Buffett believes IS true about the stock market...
You see, the EMT
basically says that the stock market is "efficient" in its pricing...
and that most buy/sell behavior is "rational".
Buffett disagrees.
He is CONSTANTLY scouting for opportunities where he thinks the market
is acting in an IRRATIONAL manner... and then he jumps on the chance
to buy an under-priced stock.
In other words,
a core part of his investment philosophy is that the stock market is
NOT efficient... and that there's always room to grow your "bankroll"
when others act irrationally.
It's the same with
poker.
When you're playing
Texas Holdem, you want to spot the "sucker" at the table... the guy
who is making IRRATIONAL decisions.
This doesn't only
apply to amateurs, either. Even PROS have "irrational" habits, tells,
and "tilt" behavior.
Your OPPONENTS will
open up millions of "profit opportunities" for you... if you just watch
closely.
And that brings
us to the next principle:
PRINCIPLE 4: FOCUS
ON THE VALUE OF THE BUSINESS, NOT THE PRICE OF THE STOCK.
This one has almost
a direct translation to poker:
FOCUS ON THE PLAYERS,
NOT THE CARDS.
You're not playing
poker against the house... you're playing against your opponents.
With the stock market,
everyone is always looking at the PRICE of a stock to determine if it's
worth buying or selling.
Buffett actually
doesn't even look at the price until LAST. What he looks at is the VALUE
OF THE BUSINESS.
He only invests
in top-notch businesses that meet specific conditions. He wants a business
with strong growth prospects LONG TERM, good management, and stable
numbers.
Once he finds a
business that meets these criteria, THEN he looks at the price.
When the cards come
out, what's the first thing you're thinking about? What are you looking
at?
You should be thinking
about your OPPONENTS... the POSITIONING at the table... the BETTING
HABITS you've picked up in the last few hands... and your opponents'
FACES as they look at their cards.
THEN when the action
comes to you and it's YOUR TURN, you should peek to see what you're
holding.
Opponents first,
cards second.
PRINCIPLE 5: DEMAND
A MARGIN OF SAFETY FOR EVERY PURCHASE.
Warren Buffett is
actually a very "conservative" investor, as are most poker professionals.
He'll only buy stocks that he feels are practically "guaranteed" to
go up.
You should demand
a "margin of safety" on every hand you play. This is actually much easier
than it sounds.
Some of your tactics
should include:
* Avoiding heads-up
situations with players who have more chips, and instead favoring those
with fewer chips. (That way if you go all-in and lose, you can still
be in the game.)
* Buying pots and
bluffing when you have good positioning. (That way you can get a read
on your opponent and escape if things go bad.)
* Only "chasing"
draws when the pot odds are CONSIDERABLY in your favor. (That way you
end up way ahead over time.)
* And so on.
*** PLAY POKER LIKE WARREN BUFFETT ***
Perhaps the MOST
IMPORTANT lesson I've learned from Warren Buffett is to NEVER FEAR doing
the "unpopular" thing.
His career PROVES
that "going against the grain" is often the BEST choice.
He doesn't live
by what others do... he operates on GUIDING PRINCIPLES that "win" over
time.
Whether it's ways
to leverage table positioning, tactics for defeating common opponent
styles, techniques for "stealing the button", or figuring out the right
times to bluff...
...You've got to
first learn the POKER PRINCIPLES. And then you need the GUTS to stick
to them.
So where do you
learn these principles?
The best place to
start is by joining my free Poker Tips email newsletter. It's jam-packed
with Texas Holem tactics and secrets that you can INSTANTLY use to increase
your winnings.
Join now, and your
first issue will include this free report:
"Avoid These Costly
Mistakes When Playing Texas Holdem"
Inside you'll learn
the 10 most dangerous mistakes most poker players make... and HOW YOU
CAN AVOID THEM.
Just go here now
to get started:
RoyRounder.com
Talk to you soon.
Your New Friend,
Roy Rounder
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