“There is no doubt that the Trans-Pacific Partnership and the fight over fast track is going to be part of the presidential election,” given the expectation that Clinton and others could declare their candidacy in April, the same month fast track could hit the Senate floor, Sroka said.
“It very well might be some of the first questions she is asked as a presidential candidate could be about TPP and fast track,” Sroka added. “There’s lots of reasons that people are excited about getting Elizabeth Warren into the presidential race, but her outspokenness in the battle against TPP … is something that speaks to the progressive base’s concerns and is attracting people to this campaign.”
Union groups, including the AFL-CIO labor federation, also have deep concerns about the prospective trade pact with Japan and 10 other countries in the Asia-Pacific that, along with the United States, represent more than 40 percent of world gross domestic product. They fear the deal will encourage companies to move more jobs overseas, suppressing wages in the United States.
Clinton, as Obama’s secretary of state, is closely associated with the agreement, which could grow to cover 21 economies in the region, including China. “Our hope is that a TPP agreement with high standards can serve as a benchmark for future agreements — and grow to serve as a platform for broader regional interaction and eventually a free trade area of the Asia-Pacific,” she wrote in October 2011.
The issue is front and center as Obama pushes for approval of trade promotion authority, a bill that would allow him to submit trade agreements, like the proposed TPP, to Congress for a straight up-or-down vote without any amendments. The next president, whoever it is, could also use the authority to negotiate a deal bringing China into the pact.
U.S. Sen. Rand Paul, R-Ky., speaks to students during a discussion on criminal justice reform at Bowie State University, in Bowie, Md., Friday, March 13, 2015. (AP )
The Obama administration is already negotiating a bilateral investment treaty with China that could be a stepping stone to a free trade pact. In addition, the United States, China and others in the region recently agreed on a path, known as the Beijing Roadmap, to pursue the Free Trade Area of the Asia-Pacific.
That raises the stakes of the current fight in Congress over trade promotion authority, which is also known as fast track because of its expedited voting procedures that union groups and many progressive Democrats detest.
Clinton’s husband, former President Bill Clinton, used the procedure to win approval of the North American Free Trade Agreement, which the left-leaning Economic Policy Institute blames or hundreds of thousands of lost jobs.
“Every single thing in our trade deals should be openly discussed and subject to public oversight and the full legislative process,” AFL-CIO President Richard Trumka said in a recent speech. “There should be no question about that. Fast track is wrong and undemocratic. It’s a rotten process, and the American labor movement intends to kill it.”
Although administration officials insist it’s not part of their calculus, finishing congressional action on the pact this year could be a big help to Clinton — particularly if rivals on the left, such as Warren or Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.), were to enter the 2016 race, both of whom have criticized the TPP pact and fast-track trade legislation.
Clinton voted against the fast-track legislation the last time it was approved in 2002, although her husband repeatedly pushed for the same authority when he was president.
Now, Obama — another erstwhile critic of trade agreements — wants Congress to approve the legislation quickly so he can wrap up the TPP pact and submit it to Congress for a vote later this year.
Clinton’s office did not respond to an emailed request for her current position on trade issues.
Although she has been quiet on trade since stepping down as secretary of state in early 2013, Clinton was a vocal advocate of the TPP agreement while in office and also pushed for congressional approval of free trade deals with South Korea, Colombia and Panama opposed by many democrats, particularly in the House of Representatives.
“Our landmark deal with South Korea could increase exports of American goods by more than $10 billion and grow South Korea’s economy by 6 percent,” Clinton said in a speech in Vladivostok, Russia, in September 2012, relying on U.S. government estimates that, at least in the early years of the Korea agreement, appear now to be too optimistic.
“In addition to lowering tariffs, the agreement also includes improvements on intellectual property protection and enforcement, fair labor practices, environmental protection, regulatory due process,” Clinton said. “That’s also true of the Trans-Pacific Partnership, a new far-reaching regional trade agreement that will bring together at least 11 economies, developed and developing alike, into a single Pacific trading community.”
Clinton’s embrace of the TPP agreement show how far both she and Obama had come on trade since the 2008 Democratic primary, when the two rivals and former Sen. John Edwards repeatedly used the North American Free Trade Agreement as a punching bag to whip up votes among union supporters.
Although Clinton’s husband pushed NAFTA through Congress early in his administration, and went on to win congressional approval of a world trade agreement in 1994 and permanent normal trade relations with China in 2000, Hillary promised a “timeout” from new trade agreements and a smarter approach to trade policy if elected in 2008.
Seven years later, the same issues are playing out as Obama is pushing to win approval of trade promotion authority.
Last month, the AFL-CIO executive council approved a moratorium on political donations to candidates for federal office to focus its resources on defeating TPA, a pointed reminder to Democrats of its fundraising abilities.
On Monday, Clinton will be sharing the stage with leaders of two unions represented on the council, Randi Weingarten, president of the American Federation of Teachers, and Lee Saunders, president of the American Federation of State, County and Municipal Employees, for a roundtable discussion on revitalizing urban communities.
Chen Guangcheng, the recipient of the 2012 Lantos Human Rights Prize, waits for the beginning of a ceremony for former Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton where she received the 2013 Lantos Human Rights Prize on Capitol Hill in Washington, Friday, Dec. 6, 2013. Chen Guangcheng is an activist who fled house arrest in China and later moved to the U.S.
After voting against trade promotion authority in 2002, Clinton supported most of the agreements negotiated by President George W. Bush over the next six years, with the notable exception of a free trade deal with Central American countries and the Dominican Republican in 2005. That controversial agreement, which House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi called a “job killer,” was fiercely opposed by most Democrats
“But Obama and Clinton were hard nos on CAFTA,” said Scott Miller, a senior adviser on trade at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, who previously was director of global trade policy at the consumer products giant Proctor & Gamble. “They were never even close to yeses.”
The two rivals also skipped a vote on the U.S.-Peru Free Trade Agreement in December 2007, as did Sen. John McCain, who won the Republican presidential nomination the following year.
During the 2008 Democratic primary race, both Obama and Clinton took “what I would characterize as a populist turn [on trade], particularly during the Pennsylvania and the Ohio primaries, but the candidates tried hard not to get too far from each other,” Miller said.
One memorable moment came during a debate in Cleveland, when both Obama and Clinton said they would use the threat of withdrawing from NAFTA to force Mexico to negotiate stronger labor and environmental terms for the agreement.
“I think actually Sen. Clinton’s answer on this one is right,” Obama said. “I think we should use the hammer of a potential opt-out as leverage to ensure that we actually get labor and environmental standards that are enforced.”
Obama never followed through on that idea after he was elected president.
But both Mexico and Canada are part of the negotiations on the TPP pact, which the Obama administration says will upgrade the labor and environmental provisions of NAFTA by making them enforceable.
Still, the Obama administration’s effort to portray TPP as “the most progressive” trade agreement to date has not changed many minds on the left.
“There’s no reason to believe the TPP is going to be a better deal than NAFTA was for the American middle class,” Sroka said. “I think the base of the party wants to have a nominee in 2016 that reflects concern with the trade deals and what trade deals have done to working families.”