Reuters reports that ExxonMobil (NYSE: XOM) CEO Rex Tillerson went on The Today Show
this morning to discuss the price of gasoline. Why? I think it's
because he wants to diffuse political pressure to raise taxes on oil
companies. Tillerson said that the price of gas is so high that people
are using less of it.
But the subtext, in my opinion, was to put a face on the industry in
the mind of the public so that it would be harder for politicians to
harness public anger into higher taxes. Some big oil companies now have
"too much" money coming in, with oil prices as high as they are. One of
them has recently been in low-level debates with investors over what to
do with all their cash as in "they can't spend it fast enough," an
irony when gas prices are so high.
But as I posted yesterday, not all oil companies think that they have too much money coming in. Many such as Exxon and Valero Energy (NYSE: VLO)
have reported disappointing earnings in the first quarter because the
price of a barrel of oil has doubled while the wholesale price of
gasoline has risen only 39%.
With demand
in the U.S. down and too much refining capacity, these U.S. refiners
are shutting down production so they can justify raising consumer
prices at the pump even more. I figure that if they can cut back on
refining capacity and the price of a barrel of oil goes up to $200, the
refiners will be able to charge $8.53 a gallon and then they'll restore
their margins to where they believe they rightfully belong.
Many oil companies could care less about the social angles of high
gas prices. The industry may be happy if Tillerson can succeed in
diffusing public anger against the oil companies by answering questions
and getting its position across to the public. While I doubt the public
will sympathize with its economic problems, Exxon is clearly gambling
that putting a face to the company is part of a multi-pronged PR battle
to keep the industry's taxes low.
As far as the financial angle – the oil companies have at least six options for the excess money including:
- pay it out as dividends,
- invest it in exploration for more energy,
- create alternative energy products,
- acquire other energy companies or get into a completely different industry – to diversify earnings,
- buy back their stock,
- buy stocks and bonds for short-term investment purposes.
The oil companies perceive that they have an obligation to
shareholders, but not to the public and they could care less about
irony. They are in business to make a profit and they only care about
how much that profit-making squeezes the public if citizens'
frustration translates into higher taxes for their business.
If they can appear to care, they may be able to diffuse that threat to their net income.
Peter Cohan is President of Peter S. Cohan & Associates. He also teaches management at Babson College and edits The Cohan Letter. He has no financial interest in the securities mentioned.