The Situation
A player I coach
was recently involved in an instructional hand at the $1,000 buy-in
ladies’ event at the The Bicycle Casino’s 2007 Legends of Poker. Her
table had seven or eight players. UTG, an aggressive chip leader, raised
to 4 big blinds. Action folded to my player, who held JJ in late position.
When talking about this hand, my player mentioned to me that the raise
to 4 big blinds was odd...whenever UTG raised, it was always to 5 big
blinds. I won’t dismiss the possibility that UTG bet 4 big blinds accidentally;
however, players who consistently raise to the same amount preflop tend
to be very ritualistic. Something significant is happening when such
a player raises to a different amount in his poker hands.
A fundamental law
of reading players is the following: people tend to do things differently
when they have big hands (to extract value) or when they are stone-cold
bluffing (to minimize risk). UTG had a history of raising with a wide
range of hands, meaning that she probably didn’t care about minimizing
risk. Additionally, even generally aggressive players tend to raise
with narrower distributions in early position. These two considerations
alone mean that UTG had a monster hand. I would have put UTG on KK-AA
(tossing QQ in the distribution would be debatable). UTG may as well
have been playing her hand face up.
The Mistake
My player keenly
noticed the different action...something most other players would miss.
Furthermore, she’s a player who’s very capable of making a KK+ read
and mucking hands like QQ and AK. In fact, she lost a very minimal amount
of money when she had QQ vs. AA earlier in the tournament. Unfortunately,
after many hours of play, my player was feeling fatigued.
After noting to
herself that something fishy was amiss, she somehow rationalized to
herself that the lower bet size was a sign of weakness instead of strength.
She took her 15 big blind stack and shoved all-in with her JJ. Action
folded to the UTG raiser who quickly called with her AA. My player didn’t
win her 19 percenter, and she was sent to the rail in 22nd place in
a tournament that paid the top 18 players.
The Lessons
1.) Consider your
poker reads and your cards separately. Don’t tweak your reads to rationalize
playing a pretty looking hand in a bad spot.
2.) If you’re a
tournament player, you need endurance…your physical well-being is directly
linked to your mental well-being. Make exercising regularly a habit,
and make sure you bring sufficient amounts of food and fluids to the
tables.
By Tony Guerrera
Tony
Guerrera is the author of Killer
Poker By The Numbers. Visit him online at http://www.killerpokerbythenumbers.com
