Some of the means by which the North Korean leader, Kim Jong-un, is rumoured to have vanquished his domestic enemies since taking power in late 2011 are as imaginative as they are brutal: flamethrowers, poison and ravenous dogs.
Whatever the method used, the reports that Kim has had his defence chief, Hyon Yong-chol, executed for the treasonable crime of behaving disrespectfully are a reminder that, for the rest of the world, establishing whether a purge has taken place at all is still largely a guessing game until Pyongyang chooses to issue confirmation.
For instance, the 2013 execution for treason of Kim’s uncle and second in command, Jang Song-thaek, is not doubted. But initial reports that he was fed to more than 100 hungry dogs have been discredited.
This week, a high-ranking defector from the north claimed in an interview with CNN that Kim had his aunt (and Jang’s wife) Kim Kyong-hui dispatched, cold war-style, with a dose of poison about a year ago.
But neither method will have been as clinical as the one reportedly used in Kim’s latest high-level purge, sketchy details of which emerged on Wednesday.
The 32-year-old reportedly used anti-aircraft fire to execute his defence chief for disrespectful behaviour, including napping during a military rally attended by the leader.
North Korea’s official KCNA news agency has not confirmed the purge, which was revealed by an official from South Korea’s National Intelligence Service (NIS)to a closed meeting of lawmakers.
Hyon was executed by firing squad with an anti-aircraft gun, South Korea’s Yonhap news agency said, citing testimony to a parliamentary panel given by the IS deputy director, Han Ki-beom.
Han reportedly told MPs that hundreds of people had witnessed Hyon’s execution, which was reportedly carried out in late April at Kang Kon military academy in northern Pyongyang.
Satellite images of the Kang Kon military academy Photograph: Public domain
Intelligence sources suggested Hyon was shot with 14.5mm calibre rounds – a method of execution said to be reserved for senior officials whom the leadership wishes to make examples of.
Evidence that the North Korean leadership occasionally resorts to anti-aircraft fire to dispense with its enemies came last month when the US-based Committee for Human Rights in Korea released satellite imagery that analysts said showed a shooting range lined with anti-aircraft guns apparently primed for an execution last October.
Aside from dozing off in Kim’s presence, Hyon, who spoke at a security conference in Moscow last month, had reportedly voiced dissatisfaction with his leadership.
There is also speculation that during his visit to Moscow, Hyon had failed to secure a weapons deal in return for Kim’s presence at a recent event to mark the defeat of Nazi Germany 70 years ago.
But given Hyon’s proximity to Kim, reports of his execution shocked some analysts. “Hyon was seen as one of the three closest military officials to Kim Jong-un,” said Yang Moo-jin, a professor at the University of North Korean studies.
“An inexperienced leader like Kim can often display a tendency for overtly dramatic and brash moves ... and for me the situation looks quite worrisome,” he added. “It also suggests Kim is politically frustrated.”
South Korea’s intelligence service has a mixed record on correctly tracking major political developments over the border, leading other analysts to strike a note of caution about Hyon’s rumoured death.
With conventional means of verification practically impossible for those outside the country, observers resort to monitoring North Korean media for clues.
Cheong Seong-chang of the Sejong Institute thinktank in Seoul questioned the authenticity of the NIS report, pointing out that Hyon was still making frequent appearances on state TV footage.
North Korea typically removes executed and purged officials from TV documentaries, but Hyon appeared multiple times in a TV documentary on live fire drills between 30 April and 11 May, according to the unification ministry in Seoul.
North Korean state media have not mentioned Hyon since 29 April, when it reported his presence at a music performance the previous day.
Cheong said the NIS had been “rash” in reporting the execution on the basis of “shaky, unconfirmed intelligence”. He added: “It needs to be verified, but is already being reported as fact by the media, which only adds to the confusion.”
Hyon’s reported death fits a pattern, however, coming weeks after the NIS claimed Kim had ordered the execution of 15 senior officials so far this year, apparently for questioning his authority. In all, around 70 officials have been executed since Kim became leader, Yonhap quoted the NIS as saying.
In January, he executed Gen Pyon In-son, head of operations in the army, for disagreeing with him. He also executed about 50 officials last year on charges ranging from corruption to watching South Korean soap operas.
Kim’s decision to cancel his much-anticipated appearance in Moscow last week, citing “internal issues”, lends weight to the theory that he is in the midst of yet another round of purges.
Initial doubts over whether Kim, a young and inexperienced leader when he succeeded his late father, Kim Jong-il, would be able to retain his grip on power persist more than three years after he became the third member of the Kim dynasty to rule the reclusive state.
“North Korean internal politics is very volatile these days,” said Michael Madden, an expert on the North Korean leadership and contributor to the 38 North thinktank. “Internally, there does not seem to be any respect for Kim Jong-un within the core and middle levels of the North Korean leadership.
“There is no clear or present danger to Kim Jong-un’s leadership or stability in North Korea, but if this continues to happen into next year, then we would seriously have to start looking at a contingency plan for the Korean peninsula.”
Hyon, a little-known general, was promoted to the rank of vice-marshal of the North Korean army in 2012. The South Korean spy agency told lawmakers that Ma Won-chun, known as North Korea’s chief architect of new infrastructure under Kim, was also purged, local media reported.
Andrei Lankov, a North Korea specialist at Kookmin University in Seoul, said that the reported purges in Pyongyang did not necessarily mean that Kim’s grip on power was weakening.
“The common assumption is that it’s bad for stability, but I’m not so sure,” Lankov said. “The young boy is not necessarily popular with the military, so he wants to show that he’s in control and he’s the boss.”