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Bogdan Fiedur
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RE: Financial crises final stage - It will enable resource based economy
8/16/2011 2:29:52 PM
Moody’s Lowers Economic Growth Outlook

Moody’s Analytics said its near-term outlook for the U.S. economy has fallen significantly in the past month wake of the debate over the U.S. debt ceiling and the downgrade of the nation’s credit ratings by Standard & Poor’s .

Moody’s Analytics, a sister company to credit-ratings company Moody’s InvestorsService, now expects real gross domestic product to increase at an annualized rate of about 2% in the second half of this year and just over 3% next year, compared with its estimate a month ago for growth of 3.5% for the second half of this year and through 2012.

The firm attributes most of the expected decline to a loss of business, investor and consumer confidence, noting the economy’s improving fundamentals such as the strengthening of business’s balance sheets and consumers’ strides in cutting household debt.

The credit-rating company also said it thinks the odds of a renewed recession over the next 12 months — now at 1 in 3 — will increase if stock prices continue to fall. Moody’s maintains that the odds of a renewed recession rise with each 100-point drop in the Dow Jones Industrial Average. While Moody’s expects the economic recovery will continue, prospects for economic growth and job creation have “diminished substantially.”

Though the U.S. economic recovery looked healthy at the beginning of the year, a series of events have hurt business, consumer and investor confidence, Moody’s said. These include surging prices for food and gasoline, natural disasters in Japan, Europe’s debt crisis and, most recently, the U.S. debt woes.

The economy needs to grow 2.5% to 3% a year to create jobs fast enough to keep the unemployment rate stable, Moody’s said. However, Moody’s said it doesn’t think this will happen soon.


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Bogdan Fiedur
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RE: Financial crises final stage - It will enable resource based economy
8/16/2011 8:46:30 PM
Euro Zone Second Quarter GDP Growth Slows to 0.2 Percent

Published: Tuesday, 16 Aug 2011 | 5:31 AM ET


The euro zone economy grew less than forecast in the second quarter, held back by a sluggish performance in Germany and stagnation in France, data from the European statistics agency showed on Tuesday.

Steven Hunt / Getty Images
Euros & Downward Graph

The Eurostat agency estimated gross domestic product (GDP) for the 17-country euro zone increased 0.2 percent in the three months to end-June from the previous quarter, compared with economists' forecasts of growth of 0.3 percent.

That was sharply off the rate of 0.8 percent in the first three months of the year.

Compared to the same quarter a year ago, Eurostat estimated GDP growth at 1.7 percent, compared to a year-on-year comparison of 2.5 percent in the first quarter of 2011.

Economists had forecast a figure of 1.8 percent for the second quarter.

A major contributor to the slowing growth was a German performance which suffered from a negative trade balance, flagging consumption and weak construction investment.

German growth dropped to 0.1 percent in seasonally adjusted terms, from a revised 1.3 percent in the first three months of the year.

French figures last week showed its economy stagnated in the second quarter.

Germany, Europe's largest economy, has been a star performer since the end of the 2008 financial crisis, and a sharp slowdown in its growth would have knock-on effects in other parts of the the euro zone too.

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Bogdan Fiedur
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RE: Financial crises final stage - It will enable resource based economy
8/18/2011 1:30:44 PM
All trading on Russia's MICEX stock exchange has been halted until 17:15 GMT. Next up: our very own Rule 48.


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Bogdan Fiedur
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RE: Financial crises final stage - It will enable resource based economy
8/18/2011 3:42:39 PM
Stocks Plunge on Economic Fears, Gold Hits Record High

CNN Money
Thursday, August 18, 2011

NEW YORK (CNNMoney) — Turmoil returned to U.S. stock markets at Thursday’s open as renewed concerns about the global economy sent major indexes plunging and pushed gold to a new record high.

Investors were working through bad news on various fronts, including a dismal forecast from Morgan Stanley for global economic growth, and two U.S. government-issued reports on inflation and the job market.

At the open, the Dow Jones industrial average (INDU) dropped 307 points, or 2.7%; the S&P 500 (SPX) was down 36 points, or 3%; and the Nasdaq Composite (COMP) lost 89 points, or 3.5%.

A gloomy report from Morgan Stanley intensified fears over a slowing global economic recovery. The investment bank slashed its global growth outlook for 2011 and 2012, adding that the United States and Europe are “hovering dangerously close to a recession.”

Full story here.


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Bogdan Fiedur
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RE: Financial crises final stage - It will enable resource based economy
8/21/2011 2:58:24 PM
French bank shares slump as rumours swirl around Société Générale


SocGen denies market rumours that it had sought an emergency meeting with President Sarkozy

Société Générale, France's second-biggest bank, lost more than a fifth of its stock exchange value at one point on Wednesday afternoon following rumours that the bank was in serious financial difficulties and had held an emergency meeting with France's president, Nicolas Sarkozy.

Shares in Société Générale fell by as much as 23% to their lowest point for more than two-and-a-half years at one point. They recovered later to close down 14.7% at €22.18.

The sudden fall in the shares, which wiped almost €3bn (£2.6bn) off the company's market value, raised fears that the 147-year-old bank might be on the brink of collapse. A Société Générale spokesman said the bank "categorically denies all market rumours", but he refused to comment more specifically.

The bank did say that it was not present at emergency government talks today organised to discuss France's growing debt burden and suggestions that the country could be on the brink of losing its AAA credit rating.

Sarkozy returned from holiday to chair the two-hour meeting of France's financial ministers and central bankers at the Elysée palace. After the meeting, he sought to reassure the country that France's plan to cut its budget deficit from 7% of GDP in 2010 to 3% in 2012 would be enough to ensure a stable economic future.

France's finance minister, François Baroin, said: "We will take the necessary measures to reach these goals." His colleague, budget minister Valerie Pécresse, later announced a tightening of some tax breaks in France, without giving any details. "We will end tax breaks… because we will not be increasing taxes," she said. "These exonerations from taxes, which are justified in some cases, are in some cases very inefficient."

Until now, Sarkozy had refused to return from holidaying in the south of France. Only 24 hours before his return, Sarkozy's advisers were telling journalists: "If the president came back to Paris it would dramatise the situation for nothing", adding that it was important the French leader was not seen to "overreact" to the crisis.

French banks collectively hold more than €40bn of Greek debt, which is almost four times more than any other country. Last week SocGen revealed that its profit for the second quarter fell to €747m, down 31% from a year ago, after a €395m writedown on its Greek debt holdings. SocGen has about €2.65bn worth of Greek sovereign bonds and warned that its 2012 profit target would be "difficult to achieve".

Its shares have lost more than half their value since February and Wednesday's plunge dragged down the shares of other French banks, including BNP Paribas, which fell 9.5%, and Crédit Agricole, which dropped 11.8%. The contagion also spread to British banks, with Barclays shares falling 9% and RBS 7%.

Fears that France was about to be downgraded were, however, eased when a Standard & Poor's analyst said that France seemed more serious than the United States in addressing fiscal issues, and that its AAA rating was not at risk.

Nikola Swann, S&P's top analyst for the United States, also said France had better fiscal flows and lower budget deficits than the US, although indebtedness ratios are similar in both countries.

Despite S&P's intervention, investors are concerned that France could be the next country to lose its AAA rating because of its high public deficit and exposure to the Greek crisis. Analysts at Citigroup said: "We expect that France, with its high public debt and deficit, and popular resistance to cutbacks in its, even by euro area standards, extremely large welfare state, is now likely to be the G7 country at the highest risk of losing its AAA rating.

"The markets appear to share this sentiment, with French 10-year spreads over German bunds reaching 16-year highs of 90.7 basis points on Friday … levels not seen since the last of the major ERM crises in December 1994."

A spokesman for the French ministry of finance said the downgrade rumours were "totally unfounded" and that "the three agencies, Standard & Poor's, Fitch and Moody's, have confirmed that there is no risk of a downgrade".

A spokesperson for the Autorité des Marchés Financiers, the French equivalent of the Financial Services Authority, said: "As with any period of turbulence we are being vigilant. We are keeping a close watch on the markets and in particular the valuations of financial services companies."


You don't need to be a victim of the corrupted government
Truth can only be found by those who have the humility to consider what they do not prefer.
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